Better guidance, but within expectations

Q1'24 EBITDA of USD 1,590m (ABGSCe at USD 1,941, cons. at USD 1,604m). Segments - miss for Ocean and Logistics & Services, beat in Terminals and Towage. Lower end of guidance lifted, share slightly up today.

Yard response and dry bulk qualms

Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.

Too cheap with near-term earnings upside

Underlying demand much better than expected. Guidance upgrade likely - ABGSCe '24 EBITDA +20% vs. cons.. TP of DKK 13,260 (10,700) – BUY (Hold).

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 26 April 2024.

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK9600.00) - Loose ends into Q1 results

There is a substantial discrepancy between container liners’ reported and guided revenue for Q1, as the impacts of the Red Sea disruption and resurgent freight rates are revealed. Near-term consensus could be too low, but the 2025–2026 outlook is set to be much worse than the market believes. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to DKK9,600 (9,500).

Enjoy the ride

We trim estimates somewhat. Reassuring outlook for new construction. Potential for >15% share price CAGR until 2026. BUY.

Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.

Catena (Buy, TP: SEK515.00) - Time to put the money to work

The Q1 results were solid in our view; although the vacancy rate rose, it was from a very low level, and was therefore of limited concern. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK515 (500). In our view, Catena has (too much) firepower following its last equity raise and we would like to see more M&A, project activity, or speedy reinvestment. Following the equity raise the stock looks highly valued on a 2025–2026e P/FFO of 21–19x, but that drops to 15–14x adjusted for earnings...

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK102.00) - Facade Access progress

Alimak reported a solid Q1, with strong margins in Industrial and Facade Access. Margins in Construction were on the weak side (following weak Q4 orders), but management seemed confident of a return to normal as soon as in Q2. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 1–2%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK102 (100).

Like clockwork

EPBD the big story this week

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. In other news, KMC Properties bought a new asset and appointed an interim CEO, JM got a new CEO, while Castellum announced a divestment and new leases, and Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.74% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2...

Ericsson (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) -

Despite a delay in our mix-driven earnings and FCF rebound case, Ericsson’s Q1 gross margin showed early signs of trends we believe should accelerate through 2024 and ultimately drive Infront consensus EPS revisions closer to our full-year adj. EBITA (17% above consensus), potentially triggering a re-rating. In our view, Ericsson’s soft market outlook commentary and implicit Q2 guidance should be seen in light of its ongoing union negotiations in Sweden amid lay-offs. We reiterate our BUY and SE...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/17/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 17/04/2024

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Ericsson : Uncertainties persist in 2024, but an improvement in margin...

>Underperform rating maintained, target price raised to SEK 52 vs SEK 50 - Following the publication of Q1 2024 results, we have raised our forecast for 2024 EPS by 7%, and our target price to SEK 52 vs SEK 50. The market and the timing of the recovery remains very uncertain. Furthermore, the group has not yet settled its cases with the US DoJ, meaning the threat of a further fine still hangs over it. Based on our new estimates, the valuation is relatively undemanding...

Ericsson : Les incertitudes persistent en 2024, mais amélioration des ...

>Opinion Sous-performance maintenue, OC relevé à 52 SEK vs 50 SEK - Suite à la publication des résultats T1 24, nous relevons notre BPA 2024e de 7%, ainsi que notre OC à 52 SEK vs 50 SEK. Le marché et le timing de sa reprise reste très incertain. De surcroit, le groupe n’a pas encore réglé ses affaires juridiques avec le DoJ Américain, laissant peser la menace d’une amende supplémentaire. Sur la base de nos nouvelles estimations, la valorisation est assez peu exigeant...

Ericsson 1Q24: Revenues stabilizing, margins improving: are we approac...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/16/2024

We are initiating coverage of the mining equipment segment with Metso on Outperform, Sandvik on Neutral and Epiroc on Underperform. We have adopted a cautious scenario with demand stable or slightly up in the short term (mining business sales up +3% on average between 2024 and 2026), pending positive signals indicating a rebound in greenfield investments (not before 2027, in our view). In this scenario, we think that Metso should confirm the progress achieved in 2023 (margin improveme...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 16/04/2024

Nous initions le segment des équipementiers miniers avec Metso à Surperformance, Sandvik à Neutre et Epiroc à Sous-performance. Nous adoptons un scénario prudent avec une demande stable ou en légère hausse à court terme (CA des activités minières en hausse moyenne de 3% entre 2024 et 2026), dans l’attente de signaux positifs indiquant un rebond des investissements greenfield (pas avant 2027 selon nous). Dans ce scénario, nous estimons que Metso devrait confirmer les progrès réalisés e...

Ericsson 1Q24: Revenues stabilizing, margins improving: are we approac...

Ericsson reported 1Q24 this morning.