After today's changes (ASMi out, UCB in), we maintain a balanced approach in our Dynamic Top Pick List, with a particular emphasis on value stocks that have been overlooked. Our defensive holdings are overweight, including real estate, which stands to benefit from lower interest rates. We remove ASMi from our Dynamic Top Pick List as the recent share price performance has driven the valuation meaningfully ahead of fundamentals. Since early December, FY27 diluted EPS expectations have risen by a...
Flow Traders: Preview 4Q25 / Kinepolis: January reassures with US box office revenue up 14% YoY, France visitors up 15% YoY / Lotus Bakeries: Peer Mondelez 4Q25 results / MICC: Peer Mondelez 4Q25 results / RELX / Wolters Kluwer: Anthropic moves into Legal / Signify: Analyst lunch highlights / TomTom: 4Q25 results, bridging a gap / UCB: Evenity sales exceeded US$2.1bn in FY25 as per Amgen
UCB announced that three-year data from the BE HEARD trials for Bimzelx in moderate to severe HS will be presented at the Conference of the European Hidradenitis Suppurativa Foundation EHSF, being held 4–6 February in Malta. The data show high rates of total HS resolution at 3 years, high rates of improvement from moderate or severe HS to mild disease, as well as strong draining tunnel resolution. This continues to highlight Bimzelx' benefit in this patient group, which we believe will further d...
Following the second guidance upgrade for FY25 (announced 5 December 2025), we update our UCB model ahead of FY25 results. UCB now expects revenue to exceed €7.6bn, representing +24% y/y (previously at least €7bn). The upgraded guidance reflects - next to the continued growth of Rystiggo, Zilbrysq, Fintepla and Evenity – strong performance of Bimzelx, including a strong momentum in hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) and a favourable payer mix in the US. Our model update increases Bimzelx FY25 sales t...
Friday during trading hours, UCB announced that the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) adopted a positive opinion recommending the granting of marketing authorisation under exceptional circumstances for Kygevvi (doxecitine and doxribtimine) for the treatment of pediatric and adult patients with genetically confirmed thymidine kinase 2 deficiency (TK2d) with an age of symptom onset on or before 12 years. Following the positive CHMP opinion...
Ahold Delhaize: Conditional approval for the acquisition of Delfood / Bekaert: Acquires Bridgestone's €80m tyre cord business in China and Thailand / KPN: In-line Q4, 2026 guidance, cash returns / NSI: Results in line, further vacancy weighing on 2026 and cautious tone on new developments / UCB: Cimzia included in Medicare's price negotiations for 2028
We raise our 2025F-26F estimates for Umicore on the back of higher precious and platinum group metals prices, with our estimates for the battery materials business broadly unchanged. We raise our target price from €10 to €19 per share, driven by higher estimates and peer multiples, yet maintain our HOLD recommendation. Umicore shares have rallied +85% over the last year, largely driven by the melt-up in metals prices, although its earnings power in 2026F is likely moderated by elevated hedging l...
We reiterate our BUY rating and raise our target price from €257 to €310. UCB finished the year strongly, after upgrading its guidance for a second time in FY25. This upgraded guidance was mainly driven by an exceptional performance for Bimzelx, the group's key growth engine and which continues to surprise to the upside. This gives us comfort into our peak sales of €8.5bn for Bimzelx by 2032F, especially as the performance of Bimzelx in Hidradenitis Suppurativa remains strong. Alongside Bimzelx,...
A director at Umicore S.A. bought 1,000 shares at 18.460EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...
The market environment now appears more favourable for small caps (solid growth prospects, consistent valuations) and the rebound seen in this asset class in 2025 could continue into 2026. After a stellar performance of 32.2% (+16.3 points vs MSCI Europe Smallcaps) from our ODDO BHF European Nextcap list in 2025, we are revising our H1 2026 Nextcap top pick list, which now includes: Comet, Corbion, Equasens, Jacquet Metals, Jost-Werke, PVA Tepla, Rosenbauer, Steyr Motors, Thermador Groupe and Wa...
L’environnement de marché semble à présent plus porteur pour les small caps (perspectives de croissance solides, valorisations cohérentes) et 2026 pourrait prolonger le rebond observé en 2025 sur cette classe d’actifs. Après une belle performance de 32.2% (+16.3 pt vs MSCI Europe Small Cap) en 2025 de notre liste ODDO BHF European Nextcap, nous revoyons notre liste de convictions Nextcap S1 2026 qui comprend désormais : Comet, Corbion, Equasens, Jacquet Metals, Jost-Werke, PVA Tepla, Rosenbauer,...
Deeper analysis on Bimzelx pricing means UCB is now our highest conviction long (Roche & AZN have had big moves). We show that: 1) Bimzelx ’26 pricing concerns are overdone, 2) 55% US volume growth in 2026 is likely, 3) Consensus is likely too low for H225 on US Bimzelx (pricing is likely +ive vs H125), 4) Guidance is likely in-line with cons. & 5) H225 has 2 upside drivers, with BE-BOLD boosting rheum volumes & one big payor likely unlocking HS access. Our proprietary product-by-product model s...
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