We are 28% above cons. US Bimzelx sales for H125 with Bimzelx sales momentum being the most important factor for the UCB investment thesis. Unlike the early days for US obesity, this is one of the most complex dynamics we have contended with when forecasting sales. There are multiple unknowns that we have sought to model (net price per scrip, net avg. price by indication, 2024 volume, volume growth by payer & incremental discounts to unlock that volume growth). As a result of our analysis, we in...
In general, a weaker USD has a negative impact on Benelux stocks, particularly for companies with significant exports to the US. In this note we selected a list of companies with high US export exposure and we examine the potential impact on FY25 earninings. On top of the weak dollar, rising trade tensions or the introduction of tariffs further harm Benelux exporters. As the dollar depreciates against the euro, European goods become costlier for American consumers. At the same time, revenues ear...
UCB has announced plans to build a new state-of-the-art biologics manufacturing facility in the US, which today accounts for 55% of its revenues. The investment, estimated at $ 2bn over 6–7 years, is expected to generate a $ 5bn economic impact, including 300 permanent and > 500 construction jobs. This move aligns UCB with other major pharma players expanding US operations and may help mitigate risks from potential US import tariffs on pharmaceuticals. Additionally, UCB will strengthen its partn...
UCB and Biogen presented additional Phase 3 data showing that dapirolizumab pegol (DZP, anti-CD40L) significantly improves fatigue and disease activity in patients with moderate-to-severe systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Beyond the positive topline readout in Nov '24, DZP showed superior results over standard care in multiple fatigue and disease remission measures. Accumulate/€214 TP confirmed.
At EULAR 2025, UCB presented three-year data for Bimzelx, demonstrating sustained efficacy and inflammation control in psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). In PsA, both biologic-naïve (53.2%) and TNFa-refractory patients (55.2%) maintained strong ACR50 responses and showed high rates of joint and skin symptom resolution. In axSpA, patients with both radiographic and non-radiographic forms sustained ASAS40 responses and low disease activity. These results highlight Bimze...
We initiate with a BUY due to our proprietary Contribution Analysis showing that the UCB EBITDA margin should explode by ~1500bps to ~45% by 2030. This leaves us 23% above consensus EBITDA. Interestingly, Cimzia is the biggest driver of our 5% above cons. 2030 sales as a result of our analysis showing that ~80% of TRx’s are women & this cohort is stable. We show that Bimzelx pricing could fall as much as 30% by 2030 due to rebates & mix but we are still in-line with consensus. There are still ma...
1M Performance - Absolute: During May'25 (1M period), the KBCS Holdings Universe posted a return of +2.2% which was mainly driven by multi-asset holdings (+2.6%) while single-asset holdings posted a smaller return of +1.2%. The 3 top performers during the period were Gimv (+12.1%), KBC Ancora (+11.1%) and Ackermans & van Haaren (+4.1%) while the 3 worst performers were Solvac (-2.8%), Groupe Bruxelles Lambert (-0.8%) and Heineken Holding (-0.3%). YTD Performance - Relative: On a YTD basis (as o...
Yesterday morning 8h00, TINC announced a rights issue. This morning the shares start trading ex-right. Based on the closing price of €10.92, the TERP amounts to €10.525 per share, this indicates a theoretical right value of €0.395. The discount of the subscription price to NAV (ex-dividend) amounts to 25.4%. The company also reported 1Q25 results, which we discuss briefly below. We note that TINC increased its net debt position to 101.3m. We maintain our rating at Suspended as KBC Securities act...
Below our feedback notes written at the occasion of our annual Benelux Local Champions Conference that took place on 27 May 2025 at our historic building at Grand Place Brussels. This event offered the possibility to have one-on-one meetings and/or small group meetings with the following Benelux companies and their top management & IR: ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN | AHOLD DELHAIZE | AKZONOBEL | ARCADIS | AZELIS | CORBION | GBL | LOTUS BAKERIES | MELEXIS | PROXIMUS | SOFINA | UMICORE
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