Energy shock scenario – The prolonged Middle East conflict has tightened the oil market, while elevating shipping and insurance risk premia. Brent has moved decisively above $100/bbl amid conflict-related disruption to production and tanker movements. The risk is acute because the Strait of Hormuz is a structural bottleneck for global energy flows, with oil flows through the strait accounting for c20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Against this backdrop, we frame the potential implicat...
Energy shock scenario – The prolonged Middle East conflict has tightened the oil market, while elevating shipping and insurance risk premia. Brent has moved decisively above $100/bbl amid conflict-related disruption to production and tanker movements. The risk is acute because the Strait of Hormuz is a structural bottleneck for global energy flows, with oil flows through the strait accounting for c20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Against this backdrop, we frame the potential implicat...
HEADLINES: • mBank: bid or no bid? • Bank Handlowy: solid 4Q25, giving support to strong dividend yield expectations NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 4Q25 – a good end to a record year NEUTRAL • Tauron: preliminary 4Q25 EBITDA 7% below our expectations, following provisions in the Supply segment; adjusted EBITDA 11% above our forecast POSITIVE • Budimex: KIO orders rejection of company’s offer in Rail Baltica tender NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: PLN 40.6m provision to be created in the 4Q25E results NEG...
HEADLINES: • Coca-Cola Icecek: 4Q25 results – operational recovery masked by higher tax expenses NEUTRAL • PGE: recognises deferred tax asset of c.PLN 2bn in the Conventional Generation Segment POSITIVE • Tauron: PLN 392m positive impact from impairment reversal in stand-alone accounts; no impact on consolidated results NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: Cyberpunk 2077 available on Xbox Game Pass on 10 March POSITIVE • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: 4Q25 earnings beat, on slowing opex POSITIVE • GEK Terna: surpr...
EME Equity Market – February 2026 Muted performance across the region, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in February. The Turkish ISE was the top performer, adding 5.4% mom in EUR terms; while the Polish WIG and the Romanian BET improved slightly (+0.9% and +0.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Czech PX and the Greek ASE were the worst performers (-4.9%, and -3.0% mom, respectively, in EUR terms), w...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: strong 4Q25 delivery bodes well for 2026E outlook POSITIVE • Orlen: 4Q25 results – strong underlying EBITDA POSITIVE • Kruk: buys material portfolio in Italy – very strong start to 2026E in terms of investments scale POSITIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: signs PLN 7.5m contract NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: 4Q25E preview – EBITDA to decline by 48% qoq (due on 19 March) • GEK Terna: EUR 1.1bn planned Vrochonera HPS project secures ...
Profit warning to reset 2025e EBITDA to c€750mn – Metlen issued a profit warning last week, cutting its 2025 EBITDA outlook by c25% (to €750mn) reflecting cost overruns in its M Power Projects (MPP) division alongside timing slippage in closing 3 asset rotation transactions. On the MPP side, management flagged unanticipated cost overruns and schedule delays in select projects, with the Protos project acting as the initial catalyst, followed by the identification of additional overruns during the...
Profit warning to reset 2025e EBITDA to c€750mn – Metlen issued a profit warning last week, cutting its 2025 EBITDA outlook by c25% (to €750mn) reflecting cost overruns in its M Power Projects (MPP) division alongside timing slippage in closing 3 asset rotation transactions. On the MPP side, management flagged unanticipated cost overruns and schedule delays in select projects, with the Protos project acting as the initial catalyst, followed by the identification of additional overruns during the...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: grow baby, grow! (BUY - transfer of coverage) • ING BSK: 4Q25 results beat; solid DPS guidance; recent share price rally might have consumed part of the upside • mBank: solid 4Q25; rather cautious on the 2026E revenue outlook NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: January sales increase by 4.0% yoy NEGATIVE • VIGO Photonics: 4Q25E results preview – solid yoy adjusted EBITDA improvement expected (due on 16 March) • GEK Terna: seals c.EUR 1bn of Romanian railway projects – positive, b...
A director at Public Power Corp S.A. sold 2,659 shares at 20.288EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: neutral 2025 results and DPS; 2026E dividend payout ratio trimmed and no major upside surprise in the 2026E guidance NEUTRAL • Tauron / Enea: URE initiates proceedings over FWRC settlements NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q25E preview – a weak quarter, with a 10% yoy pro-forma adjusted EBITDA drop expected (due on 24 March) • Czech Republic macro: CNB on hold • Magyar Telekom: 4Q25E preview – 12% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 25 February) • BRD-GSG: 4Q25 net profit...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: still opportunities, if the growth continues (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • cyber_Folks: 4Q25E results preview – 18% yoy organic adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 18 March) • Shoper: 4Q25E results preview – 11% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 18 March) • Vercom: 4Q25E results preview – 23% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 18 March) • Ten Square Games: 4Q25E preview – adjusted EBITDA -7% qoq on higher U...
HEADLINES: • Arcelik (BUY, PT TRY 207.5): 4Q25 results – in line operationally NEUTRAL • XTB S.A.: 4Q25 net profit materially ahead of expectations • CCC: acquisition of controlling stake in MKRI NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: fined PLN 34m by Poland's antitrust regulator NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: January 2026 Sensor Tower bookings estimate down 1% mom NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: January 2026 Sensor Tower bookings estimate flat mom NEUTRAL • Rainbow Tours: 4Q25E preview – EBITDA marginally above zero in...
EME Equity Market – January 2026 All regions in the green in January, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 11.1% mom in EUR terms and 13.2% mom in USD terms in January. The Turkish ISE was the top performer (+20.8% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX (+17.5% mom); the Romanian BET (+11.1% mom); the Greek ASE (+9.2% mom); the Polish WIG 20 (+5.9% mom); and the Czech PX (+2.4% mom; all in EUR terms).
A director at Gek Terna S.A. sold 50,000 shares at 33.000EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...
HEADLINES: • Cyfrowy Polsat: structural headwinds ahead (downgraded to SELL) • EME Strategy: OFEs' 2025 annual assets structure • Grupa Pracuj: new job ads on Pracuj.pl reached 368k in 2H25, down 2% yoy NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 4Q25E preview (due on 9 February) • ING BSK: 4Q25E preview (due on 10 February) • mBank: 4Q25E preview (due on 10 February) • MOL: to buy NIS in Serbia POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: concludes construction of 72MW of BESS projects NEUTRAL • GEK Terna: solid traffic growth...
Fundamentals taking over – Greek equities delivered an exceptional performance in 2025, emerging as one of the strongest markets globally, with the ASE General Index up c50%. This marked the 4th consecutive year of outperformance vs the Euro Stoxx 600, a streak not witnessed in the past two decades. The magnitude of the 2025 rally inevitably sets a high base heading into 2026 (especially since the ASE is already up c6% ytd). As a result, we believe the market will transition from a beta-driven p...
Fundamentals taking over – Greek equities delivered an exceptional performance in 2025, emerging as one of the strongest markets globally, with the ASE General Index up c50%. This marked the 4th consecutive year of outperformance vs the Euro Stoxx 600, a streak not witnessed in the past two decades. The magnitude of the 2025 rally inevitably sets a high base heading into 2026 (especially since the ASE is already up c6% ytd). As a result, we believe the market will transition from a beta-driven p...
HEADLINES: • Kety: still fuel in the tank (stays BUY) • Allegro: disposal of Mall’s Slovenian and Croatian business with a PLN 235m loss POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: net addition of 145.6k sports cards in 4Q25, acceleration in Türkiye POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: SKO cancels increased fees for 2016 and 2020 NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: 4Q25 bookings up 12.5% qoq, better than Sensor Tower's estimates POSITIVE • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 4Q25 NEUTRAL • GEK Terna / Motor Oil Hellas: EC cle...
EME Equity Market – December 2025 Czech PX the best performer in December; no market in the red. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.6% mom in USD terms in December. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 7.6% mom; followed by the Romanian BET (+7.1% mom); the Polish WIG 20 (+6.4% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Turkish ISE 30 (+0.4% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+0.2% mom; all in EUR terms).
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