reports
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
BE Semiconductor Industries: Important TCB Next order. Belgian telcos: Telenet weak Q1 commercially across the board, financials reasonable. D'Ieteren: Belgian April car registrations down 5%, VW down 11%. GBL: NAV per share above estimates. Kinepolis: US Peer Cinemark 1Q25 results a slight miss. KPN: VodafoneZiggo 1Q25 very weak, cut guidance on EBITDA, revenue after 2 months
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Livio Luyten
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Lewi
- Livio Luyten
GBL 1Q FY25: NAV Dips 1.8%, Private Healthcare Assets Post Robust Resu...
The 1Q25 NAVps fell 1.8% to €111.2 vs. €113.8 at FY24-end, mainly dragged down by listed assets. Largest declines came from SGS (-€168m), Pernod Ricard (-€306m), and Adidas (-€127m). Private healthcare assets Affidea (+€116m) and Sanoptis (€32m) partially offset the NAVps decline. Mgmt. remains committed to achieving double-digit total shareholder returns over the medium term, targeting €5b in disposals (~50% completed) between FY24–27 for reinvestment and shareholder distribution. During 1Q, GB...
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Wim Hoste
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Hans D’Haese
GBL/Transforming into a private equity powerhouse/BUY
Breaking news next to the FY24 results report, which for a holding company rarely is a real share price driver, was the announcement of a couple of important changes in governance: current CEO Ian Gallienne will step down and take up a non-executive role as Chairman, the current chairman Paul Demarais, Jr. will become vice-chairman, and KKR's most prolific European dealmaker Johannes Huth is to become the new Managing Director. Key question is whether the latter, who spearheaded some of KKR's mo...
Groupe Bruxelles Lambert SA: 1 director
A director at Groupe Bruxelles Lambert SA bought 4,174 shares at 69.819EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
US Tariffs Navigating the impact on Benelux equities
Trumps reciprocal tariffs caused a massive blow to equity markets, following a pressured period of escalating trade wars. Retaliatory measures can further heavily damage market confidence, as seen Friday when China announced their 34% tarrif of US goods. International trade policies have never moved this erratic and untransparant, with uncertainty and volatility being the baseline for now. In this report we highlight the key stocks in our coverage relevant to this discussion.
EURN EURONAV NV
ABN ABN AMRO BANK NV DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS
FAGR FAGRON SA
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
SOLB SOLVAY SA
UCB UCB S.A.
COFB COFINIMMO SA
DIE D'IETEREN SA
AGFB AGFA-GEVAERT NV
IBAB ION BEAM APPLICATIONS SA
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
ONTEX ONTEX GROUP N.V.
MELE MELEXIS NV
CSM CORBION NV
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
EXO EXOR N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
ARGX ARGEN-X SE
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
ADYEN ADYEN NV
AUTL AUTOLUS THERAPEUTICS ADS
BAR BARCO NV
DEME DEME GROUP NV
FLOW FLOW TRADERS LTD
SYENS SYENSQO
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Wim Lewi
Real Asset Conference feedback 19-20 March 2025
This note gathers feedback from the group meetings and the panels. In total 21 companies were presented in group meetings and/or panels. More than 100 guests found their way to the venue either physical or virtual (only panels). The 2 panels made for informative additions to the C-level meetings and a nice platform for discussion. Wednesday afternoon concentrated 4 experts from Logistic companies (CTP, Montea, VGP, WDP) for an interesting discussion on brownfields: " an answer to the scarcity of...
LEAS LEASINVEST REAL ESTATE SCA
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
COFB COFINIMMO SA
IMMO COMPAGNIE IMMOBILIERE DE BELGIQUE SA
RET RETAIL ESTATES NV
ELI ELIA GROUP SA/NV
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
QRF QRF COMM
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
ATEB ATENOR S.A.
ASC ASCENCIO SCA
VGP VGP NV
TINC TINC COMM. VA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
CTPNV CTP NV
HOMI HOME INVEST BELGIUM
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Avantium: Management team change. Belgian telcos: Extra data on Proximus brand mobile plans at no additional cost. Elia: Launch of €1.35bn rights issue and closing of €850m private placement. Randstad: Preliminary preview of 1Q25F results due 23 April. Shell plc: Very solid CMD, attractive outlook for shareholders. Tessenderlo: 2024 in-line with lowered outlook, soft 2025F guidance
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo FIRST LOOK: FY24 adjusted EBITDA -17%, FY25 guidance of fl...
Tessenderlo's FY24 adjusted EBITDA dropped by c17%, in line with the -15-20% guidance and broadly in line with our and consensus forecasts. The FY25 guidance points to a flat to 20% higher adjusted EBITDA, with our forecast (+12%) in line with this guidance whilst consensus (+24%) seems too high. Whilst business conditions in a number of end markets are clearly challenging, Tessenderlo is still generating a sizeable cash flow. Despite the fairly weak recent earnings momentum, we consider valuati...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Wim Lewi
Real Assets Conference Book 19-20 March 2025
We publish our conference book with info on the panels, the graphs on the market and company profiles. European REITS suffered from macro and geo-political worries (logistics) Also, the European knee-jerk reaction on the bund (+60 bps) had a negative effect. We believe that despite these worries, REITS are a good place to hide, given their high visibility and proven growth potential in a tough environment. Our top-picks are Shurgard, WDP and Xior. SHUR and WDP have ample headroom on their balanc...
LEAS LEASINVEST REAL ESTATE SCA
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
COFB COFINIMMO SA
IMMO COMPAGNIE IMMOBILIERE DE BELGIQUE SA
RET RETAIL ESTATES NV
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
QRF QRF COMM
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
ATEB ATENOR S.A.
ASC ASCENCIO SCA
ARG ARGAN SA
VGP VGP NV
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
CTPNV CTP NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
GBL: Beat on NAV thanks to strong Affidea & Sanoptis, changes in governance. OCI: 2H24 EBITDA loss on soft Nitrogen Europe and corporate costs. Proximus: Belgian state not yet proposing a new chairman. Universal Music Group: Ackman to sell a 2.7% stake. Vopak: Aiming for acceleration, opportunities promising
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Lewi
- Sharad Kumar S.P
GBL FY24: Flat NAV, Leadership Change & Progress Made On Mid-Term Targ...
During FY24, NAVps remained flat at €113.3 (vs €113.6 at FY23-end), mainly dragged down by declines amongst listed assets. Mgmt. has made progress towards delivering double-digit TSR during the medium term. During Mar'25, GBL reduced its stake in SGS to 14.6%, generating proceeds to €0.8b of which €0.2b was cap gain. Prior to this, the stake in Adidas was also reduced from 7.6% to 3.5%. Proceeds from these divestments will be used to pay out a €5.0ps dividend (+80% YoY), which is expected to gro...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ageas: Final stages in race for bidders on ESURE (UK). Agfa-Gevaert: A strong end to the year, driven by Healthcare. Basic-Fit: FY24 broadly in line; outlook FY25 below due to more aggressive 24/7 roll-out. GBL: Preview of upcoming FY24 results. Staffing: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 2Q25; positive but stable trend vs 1Q25
- Lynn Hautekeete
Immobel Likely at the trough, but still reliant on bank financing
We revisit our model on Immobel after the FY24 results and the dividend cut. The dividend cut was necessary given the short term debt maturities. We expect 2025 to be a recovery year from the trough in FY24 margins, with slightly lower asset sales versus FY24. A cash recovery from the EUR 18.0m building permit from the Proximus towers could be a short term trigger for the stock. We think it is likely but nothing is confirmed. In FY25, Immobel needs to pay back a EUR 50.0m bond which is covered ...
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
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