reports
- Maxime Stranart
- Stijn Demeester
Deceuninck/1H25: weak performance in Turkey/HOLD
We reiterate our HOLD on Deceuninck, but lower our target price to €2.3, from €2.5, following the group's 1H25 results. We note that the profitability in Turkey has disappointed, following a double-digit drop in sales, materially below the Street's expectations. Turkey accounted for >50% of group Adj. EBITDA last year. We expect high interest rates and inflation to continue to negatively affect the group's operating profit, but also its financial expenses due to its hedging policy in the country...
- Wim Hoste
Deceuninck Feedback analyst meeting
Deceuninck reported a 16% drop in 1H adj EBITDA, about 6% below our forecast and 5% below consensus. The environment is expected to remain challenging in Turkiye, with the US showing some early signs of improvement. We will probably revise our estimates slightly downwards. While acknowledging the cyclical character of Deceuninck, we expect support from the EU Green Deal in the coming years while also Recycling activities still have significant structural growth potential. Valuation is clearly at...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ackermans & van Haaren: Expect buoyed contribution from Private Banking. ASR: 1H: strong solvency, buyouts at 12% IRR. Deceuninck: Weak set of results, as expected following the change in CEO. EVS: Very weak 1H25, but guidance unchanged; convincing bolt-on deal in the US. IBA: IBA to install one P1 system at university campus in Heidelberg, Germany. NEPI Rockcastle: Robust performance, small upward revision to guidance
- Guy Sips
- Kristof Samoy
- Livio Luyten
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Deceuninck FIRST LOOK: 1H25 adj EBITDA -16%, no precise guidance
Deceuninck reported a 16% drop in 1H adj EBITDA, about 6% below our forecast and 5% below consensus. The environment is expected to remain challenging in Turkiye, with the US showing some early signs of improvement. We will probably revise our estimates slightly downwards. While acknowledging the cyclical character of Deceuninck, we expect support from the EU Green Deal in the coming years while also Recycling activities still have significant structural growth potential. Valuation is clearly at...
- Jacob Mekhael
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Guy Sips
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Deceuninck FIRST LOOK: Taking full ownership of alu JV increases strat...
Taking full ownership of the aluminum profiles JV So Easy – Decalu is a fairly small transaction but gives Deceuninck the strategic flexibility to further grow its presence in aluminum next to the legacy PVC window profiles business. We remind that Deceuninck recently reported a flat FY24 adj. EBITDA whilst market conditions for FY25 are expected to remain challenging. While acknowledging the cyclical character of Deceuninck, we expect support from the EU Green Deal in the coming years while als...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Maxime Stranart
- Stijn Demeester
Deceuninck/Postview FY24 results/HOLD
We reiterate our HOLD as we remain concerned by: (1) the group's high exposure to emerging markets, with >50% of group Adj. EBITDA generated by the ‘Turkey & Emerging Markets' division, in a highly cyclical industry; and (2) the significant impact raw material prices can have on profitability. We see downside risk to the Turkey & EM division margins after two abnormally high years driven by continued weakening of the Turkish lira, in our view. This materially boosted profitability in emerging ma...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
AB InBev: Cash is King. Adecco: 4Q24 result beats by 6%, stabilising trends in 4Q24, balance sheet relief. ASM International: 1H25 guidance slightly better but orders missed in 4Q24. Colruyt: Expects to open OKay stores on Sundays. Deceuninck: Soft FY24 results due to Turkey. DEME Group: Strong FCF. JDE Peet's: Mean green beans. Kinepolis: Peer AMC 4Q24 results. NEPI Rockcastle: Strong performance at all levels. Wolters Kluwer: FY24 results; in line, new CEO in 2026
- Guy Sips
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Deceuninck FIRST LOOK: Flat FY24 adjusted EBITDA, nice debt reduction ...
Deceuninck reported a flat FY24 adj. EBITDA which was slightly below our and consensus forecasts, whilst outperforming on FCF generation with net debt nicely reduced after a 1H24 pick up on working capital reduction. Market conditions are expected to remain challenging, whilst we expect Deceuninck to see additional support from the recent German restructuring. While acknowledging the cyclical character of Deceuninck, we expect support from the EU Green Deal in the coming years while also Recycli...
- Guy Sips
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Wim Hoste
Local Champions Midcap Conference Book 12.12.2024
This conference book is your guide to our annual Local Champions Mid Cap Conference set to take place on Thursday, 12 December 2024 at our historic building at Grand Place in Brussels. This event offers the possibility to have one-on-one meetings and/or attend small group sessions with the top management and/or IR of the following companies: BARCO | BEKAERT | DECEUNINCK | EKOPAK | EVS | GREENYARD | IBA | JENSEN | ONTEX | RECTICEL | VAN DE VELDE | WHAT'S COOKING? | XFAB
- Maxime Stranart
- Stijn Demeester
Deceuninck/1H24 encouraging, Turkey still uncertain/HOLD
We reiterate our HOLD as we remain concerned by: (1) the group's high exposure to emerging markets, with more than 50% of group Adjusted EBITDA generated in Turkey, in a highly cyclical industry; and (2) the significant impact raw material prices can have on profitability. We note some positives - with the Turkish division proving much more resilient this year than we had anticipated. We see limited room for upside - at c.9x normalised PER 2024F vs. Fenestration peers at 10x and no clear catalys...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Deceuninck Looking out of the window – model update
After a solid 1H operating performance, supported by margin growth in Europe on the back of improving cost discipline and lower energy costs, we raise our adjusted EBITDA forecasts for the FY24-FY26 period by between 4 and 7%. A fairly low capacity utilization in the key European market means limited capex is needed over the next few years and as such we expect Deceuninck to generate sizeable FCF in the coming years, which will allow the company to become net cash in the course of 2027. While ac...
- ING Helpdesk
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Deceuninck FIRST LOOK: 1H adj EBITDA +10%, beating expectations –upgra...
Deceuninck reported better than expected 1H adj EBITDA, up c 10% y/y and 20% above our forecast and 22% above consensus. Net result came in below expectations on higher financial and tax charges. Market conditions are expected to remain difficult, whilst the focus will remain on operational excellence and cost optimization, with the German restructuring plan in execution. While acknowledging the cyclical character of Deceuninck, we expect support from the EU Green Deal in the coming years while ...
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