March: Pulp shipments +8% y-o-y

Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold 9,000 shares at 915.500DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

Case intact after neutral Q1

Q1 EBITA in line with consensus. Minor revisions, '24e EBITA down marginally. Reiterate BUY, unchanged TP of SEK 125.

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK158.00) - North America showing the way

The North American operation continued to shine in Q1, growing with strong earnings leverage, while Europe remained in transformation mode. We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 3–5% on the results, mainly due to FX. We still see a strong transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 (LTM 6.6%) continues, with the riskier early part of the Stanley Security integration now largely finalised. We reiterate our BUY and SEK158 target price.

Struggle in Europe main issue in Q1

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Small guidance raise

Q1 LCY figures beat consensus due to US rebate adjustments related to 2023 adding c5%-points to LCY growth and low SG&A cost boosting EBIT growth in Q1. Wegovy sales were below consensus but above our forecast, and we have therefore adjusted our rebate assumptions for 2024. The 2024 guidance was raised to LCY sales growth of 19–27% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–30% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.

One step forward, two steps back

Q1: 9% beat, but Kemi shutdown to weigh on Q2. Early-cyclicals improve, late-cyclicals to follow. Kemi and Husum projects could add >50% to EBIT. HOLD.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Company consensus added

We are slightly below consensus on Q1e LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 21.4%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 19.5%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the Ozempic US prescription trend will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.

Metsa Board (Hold, TP: EUR7.70) - Positive start to 2024

The Q1 results were largely in line with our expectations, and the long-lasting market headwind finally turned into a tailwind, enabling paper shipments to rise 20% QOQ. However, while we expect market conditions to remain fairly healthy in 2024 and beyond, Metsa Board looks unlikely to reap the benefits due to interruptions at the Kemi flagship mill during Q2. With favourable business exposure to packing and pulp, we reiterate our HOLD and EUR7.70 target price.

Metsa Board (Hold, TP: EUR7.70) - Underlying earnings set to rise

With rising pulp prices alongside evidence of more normal conditions for the paper business, we are convinced that Metsa Board will show much stronger earnings compared to 2023, which represented a cyclical low point. However, in the short term, H1 earnings are set to be affected from the Finnish strike and long-term interruption at the Kemi mill, something that is likely to linger on the share price. We reiterate our HOLD and our target price of EUR7.7.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Ozempic to drive raised guidance

We are slightly below consensus on Q1 LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 20.1%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 17.3%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the trend in Ozempic US prescriptions will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Raising the bar with amycretin

At its CMD, the company maintained its strategic aspirations for 2025. It also expects increasing operating profit margins in the coming years. A key focus was the phase I trial results for amycretin in obesity, showing 13.1% weight loss (no signs of plateau). While not confirmed, we still expect it to go directly to phase III development. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,100 (1,000) on higher pipeline valuation.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Catalent: game changer

We believe the move by Novo Holding to acquire Catalent and re-sell the three fill-finish facilities to Novo Nordisk is inspired, and underpins the strength of having the foundation as a major shareholder. With the acquisition, the obesity opportunity moves from supply to demand-driven, while at the same time making scale a significant competitive advantage. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to DKK1,000 (800).

Securitas AB: 1 director

A director at Securitas AB bought 46,000 shares at 107.870SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 87/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Metsa Board (Hold, TP: EUR7.70) - Evidence of improving markets

Q4 volumes were down almost 30% YOY, and EBIT was close to breakeven – largely in line with our muted expectations. However, based on good January activity, Metsa Board guided for better volumes for containerboard and carton board, and consequently an EBIT improvement in Q1 versus Q4. We are encouraged by the new outlook statements, but have made few changes to our earnings recovery scenario for 2024–2025. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR7.7 target price. Constructive Q1 guidance. The soft Q4 earn...

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK158.00) - Back to investment grade

With all eyes on FCF before the report, Securitas took gearing back to investment grade at end-Q4. We have raised our forecasts slightly, with the company progressing well towards its end-2025 8% profit margin target. We still see a strong transformation case, with the potentially riskier early integration of Stanley Security now behind us; we thus reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK158 (154).

Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK800.00) - Solid wide guidance

The wide 2024 guidance for local currency (LCY) growth of 18–26% for sales and 21–29% for operating profit reflects the uncertainty over supply and demand for Ozempic and Wegovy. Yet the sharp capex increase highlights confidence in the long-term growth outlook. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to DKK800 (750) on a solid Q4 result and outlook.

Swedish small caps

Swedish small caps

Metsa Board (Hold, TP: EUR7.70) - Worst should be over

With rising pulp prices alongside indications of more normal business conditions for the paper board business, we continue to see good support for gradually improved earnings throughout 2024e. Still, near-term, we believe management will guide for only slightly better market conditions in Q1. Although we have reduced our 2024e earnings, we have slightly increased our target price to EUR7.7 (7.5), as we believe higher pulp prices in H1 are likely to support sentiment on the stock. We reiterate ou...

Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Company consensus added

We forecast Q4 LCY sales growth of 36.4% YOY (consensus 37.0%) and LCY operating profit growth of 61.7% (consensus 58.5%). For Q4 Ozempic and Wegovy sales, we are well below consensus, with our calculations indicating consensus has included inventory build-up well above our forecasts. We expect 2024 guidance for 18–24% LCY sales growth and 22–28% LCY operating profit growth. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.