Last week we attended the 2025 edition of the Semicon West conference, the key event for investors focused on the semiconductor equipment market. Over two days we hosted more than a dozen meetings with companies across the semiconductor value chain. Here are our key takeaways.
UCB announced that the final analysis of an open-label extension (OLE) study on Fintepla (fenfluramine) in Lennox-Gastaut syndrome (LGS) was published in the Epilepsy and Behavior journal. This follows previous presentations at a medical conference and highlights the long-term sustained benefit and lack of new or unexpected safety signals, which we view as supportive of Fintepla's benefit in this patient population. For reference, Fintepla is one of UCB's 5 growth drivers, and we estimate peak s...
Blackstone has confirmed it's considering a cash bid for Big Yellow Group, the UK's leading self-storage operator. Big Yellow separately confirmed that it has held meetings with a "small number" of parties, but added that it has not received a formal bid. Shares in Big Yellow surged >20% on the news, reflecting investor optimism around consolidation in the sector. We believe the impact on Shurgard in the UK is positive. It highlights that private equity investors find the valuation attractive. B...
In this note, we revisit the key dynamics discussed during ASMi's CMD. We also outline why ASMi remains our preferred pick within the semiconductor sector and provide additional context on the risks related to China. In our view, current WFE market estimates remain elevated, largely driven by optimism surrounding hyperscalers CapEx. However, our analysis of the recent announcements confirms that AI related investments have a meaningful impact on WFE demand, yet this impact should not be overesti...
Les prix de la mémoire ont progressé de 15% sur un mois et de ~30% YTD. Cela reflète une forte tension sur l’offre alors que la demande IA est plus élevée qu’attendu. Les stocks de mémoires sont, par ailleurs, au plus bas, ouvrant la voie en 2026 à un supercycle, tiré par l’IA mais aussi par l’intégration de l’Edge AI dans les smartphones/PC. Un marché des semis à ~+15/20% en 2026 est crédible dans ce contexte. Dans notre couverture, cela devrait d’abord bénéficier à ASML, VAT, Siltronic, ASMi e...
Memory prices have risen by 15% m-o-m and by ~30% since the start of 2025. This reflects a tight supply situation, with demand for AI stronger than expected. Memory inventories are also at an all-time low, paving the way for a super cycle in 2026, driven by AI but also by the integration of Edge AI in smartphones/PCs. A semis market at ~+15-20% in 2026 is a credible scenario in this context. In our coverage, this should first benefit ASML, VAT, Siltronic, ASMi and SUSS (Outperform vs Neutral), f...
UCB announced the publication of results from a multicenter retrospective chart review study of pyrimidine nucleo(s)(t)ide therapy in patients with thymidine kinase 2 deficiency (TK2d) in Neurology, which are in line with previous reports of the positive outcomes on survival and functional outcomes presented at a medical conference earlier this year. Note that TK2d is an ultra-rare genetic mitochondrial disease with no approved therapies, and has a prevalence of 1.64 per 1m people. Doxecitine an...
Two Directors at UCB SA sold after exercising options/sold 8,000 shares at between 248.275EUR and 252.680EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the compan...
In this October update of our Dynamic Top Pick List we are removing VGP while adding Shurgard and Wolters Kluwer. Since its recent inclusion in our Dynamic Top Pick List in July-25, VGPs share rose by 10.6%. While we still believe there is significant upside to the share price, we don't see short term catalysts. In fact, the macro picture remains cloudy with the jury still out on the impact of tariffs and the erratic US policy shifts. Also, we are a bit concerned that competition in Western Eur...
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