ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 30/04/2024 Date Performance dep...

L’offre de BHP sur Anglo American a confirmé l’intérêt des minières pour le cuivre dans un contexte de tensions croissantes sur la production et de difficultés à faire aboutir les projets. Les perspectives d’Anglo (Neutre) dans le cuivre sont désormais mieux valorisées, c’est aussi le cas de BHP (Neutre vs Sous-performance) mais pas encore assez, selon nous, sur Rio Tinto (Surperformance vs Neutre). En aval, Nexans et Montana Aerospace sont nos valeurs préférées (Surperformance) vs Au...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 04/30/2024

BHP's bid for Anglo American has confirmed interest from miners in copper in the context of increasingly challenged production and difficulties in fully completing projects. Anglo’s (Neutral) prospects in copper are now better valued and this is also the case for BHP (Neutral vs Underperform) although not so for Rio Tinto (Outperform vs Neutral). Downstream, Nexans and Montana Aerospace are our Top Picks (Outperform) vs Aurubis, Rexel and Prysmian (Neutral). - ...

Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Début d’année plus difficile que prévu

>Résultats inférieurs aux attentes mais guidance confirmée - Nokian Tyres a publié des résultats T1 2024 nettement inférieurs à nos attentes et celles du consensus avec un CA seulement stable à 237 M€ (consensus 265 M€) et un EBIT ajusté de -15 M€ (consensus +4 M€, ODDO BHF -3 M€), notamment pénalisé par des facteurs externes (grèves en Finlande, impacts Mer Rouge) qui ont davantage impacté sa production que ce que nous anticipions (impact CA de ~25 M€ au T1) et qui ...

Nokian Renkaat Oyj : A tougher start to the year than expected

>Earnings short of estimates but guidance confirmed - Nokian Tyres reported Q1 2024 earnings far below our estimates and those of the consensus with sales merely stable at € 237m (consensus € 265m and adjusted EBIT of -€ 15m (consensus +€ 4m, ODDO BHF -€ 3m), notably penalised by external factors (strikes in Finland, disruptions in the Red Sea) which have hit the group’s production harder than we expected (sales impact of ~€ 25m in Q1), and which should continue to af...

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.00) - Soft Q1, with or without setbacks

The Q1 results were below our expectations, even after adjusting for the negatives on the group profit from the political strikes in Finland and the Red Sea conflict. On a positive note, the PCT price/mix was guided to hold up well, partly offsetting our revised lower sales expectations, while the Romanian factory appears to be ramping up on schedule. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR9.0 (9.5), after lowering our 2024–2026e clean EBIT by c6% on average.

Renewable Weekly – 29 April 2024

This week, we summarise our Q1 previews for the sector.

Telia Company AB: 1 director

A director at Telia Company AB bought 14,100 shares at 2.140EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK33.00) - Soft Q1, but limited revisions

Telia reported Q1 service revenue, EBITDA, and cash flow below consensus. However, with the SEK300m/year service agreement after the sale of the Danish operation, we have made limited revisions to our 2024–2025e service revenue, EBITDA, and cash flow. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK33 (35).

Cash flow volatility was not appreciated

Q1: solid underlying growth and reiterated FCF outlook, but the market focused on the (weak) volatile cash flow in Q1. Uncertainty, limited re-rating potential and soft valuation support. HOLD.

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR55.00) - No drama

We have made limited changes to our 2024–2026 forecasts following an overall neutral Q1 (minor order miss but small profit beat versus our expectations), and an unchanged market outlook and 2024 guidance. We reiterate our BUY and EUR55 target price.

Telia (Buy, TP: SEK33, +24%) Q1 24: Weak headline numbers, but due to...

Telia has reported a weak set of headline numbers, but consensus had not fully adjusted for the one-off items the company had flagged before the quarter. Adjusting for these items, EBITDA is c-0.5% light only. Structural OCF (SOCF) is also light vs consensus, but again, this was flagged as a phasing issue pre the quarter, and again it looks like the messaging was not fully incorporated into numbers.

Slight miss but expect limited cons revisions

All about Cummins' 15L engine launch

Q1e EBITDA of NOK 68m – minor estimate changes. We expect newsflow related to Cummins' 15L with the Q1 report. BUY, TP down to NOK 23 (28) on lower HPUR valuation.

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Weak Q1, but better than forecast

XXL reported weak Q1 results, albeit slightly better than expected, as it continues to underperform in a challenging market. On a positive note, the company continues to make progress on its strategic initiatives and has improved its financial position following the private placement. We have cut our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 21–13% on slightly revised revenue and margin assumptions.

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Soft Q1 in line with pre-warning

We consider this a slightly positive report for XXL, including weak figures in line with pre-warned levels, but slightly above our forecasts and consensus, and with no change to the outlook. We expect c5–10% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBITDA and believe a slight positive share price reaction is warranted.

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - We expect a solid Q1

Telia reported 7% EBITDA growth in Q3 and Q4 and we believe this robust EBITDA trend has continued in Q1. The solid momentum is expected to come from continued strength in core Telco, but also from a turnaround in the TV&Media business. We reiterate our BUY and SEK35 target price.

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR55.00) - Slightly cautious ahead of Q1 report

For the Q1 results, our focus is on orders, profitability and the market outlook, as we are slightly cautious due to tough comparables, a more optimistic consensus and the recently strong share price. However, we continue to like the overall case, and have increased our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c3% on average. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to EUR55 (50).

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.50) - Directionally better

For 2024, Nokian Tyres is set to see a boost in capacity, but most of the increase should stem from less-profitable contract manufacturing, leaving limited upside potential to consensus, in our view. For Q1, we expect reiterated 2024 guidance on slightly improved sell-in trends and an update on capacity expansion. We reiterate our HOLD but have nudged up our target price to EUR9.5 (9.0).

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Recommendation and target price withdrawn

Given DNB Markets’ role in the recent private placement and the contemplated subsequent offering of shares in XXL ASA, we have withdrawn our recommendation and target price.

Oncopeptides (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Rights issue announced

Oncopeptides this morning announced plans for a cSEK300m fully guaranteed rights issue. This should not come as a surprise to the market as the company was very clear in its Q4 report that it had financial resources to last into Q2 2024. Due to DNB Markets’ role in the rights issue, we have withdrawn our target price and recommendation.