EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: solid, good, 3Q24 results in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: 3Q24 in line, but we may be at the peak NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: 3Q24 results – EBITDAaL up 3% yoy, 2% above consensus on one-offs; EBITDAaL excluding one-offs in line; 2024E guidance reiterated NEUTRAL • Kety: full 3Q24 results below preliminaries NEGATIVE • CEZ: Babis promoting a buyout of the CEZ minorities POSITIVE • Eurowag: solid 3Q24 trading update POSITIVE • Georgia macro: NBG keeps ...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: 3Q24 results – top-down small beat POSITIVE • Kety: wants to increase its share in the French market NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: EGM announced to ratify a Chinese contract NEUTRAL • Shoper: 24% yoy growth expected in 3Q24E adjusted EBITDA (due on 24 October) • Bank Millennium: 3Q24E preview (due on 29 October) • Bank Handlowy: 3Q24E preview (due on 13 November) • Vercom: 3Q24E results preview – 29% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 13 November) • CD Projekt: 3Q24E EBITDA up 35%...
EME Equity Market - September 2024 EME indices mostly in the red in September; rebound in Greece. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 2.0% in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms in September. The Greek ASE Index was the best performer in our region, advancing 1.4% mom in EUR terms. Muted performances were seen in Czechia and Hungary (+0.3% and +0.2% mom, respectively in EUR terms), with declines in Poland, Romania and Turkey (-3.6%, -2.9% and -1.5% mom, respectively in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (16-22 September) • Raiffeisen Bank International: signs agreement targeted at sale of its Belarusian operations • 11 bit studios: Frostpunk 2 post-release player reviews and player count disappoint NEGATIVE • PCF Group: updates timeframe for strategy implementation, new PLN 350m financing needed in 2025-26E NEGATIVE • Kety: takeaways from the Investor Day NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: Board approves interim dividend NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: beg...
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: stock down 17% yesterday on report by short seller Culper • Kety: 3Q24 preliminary results close to our expectations NEUTRAL • Logo Yazilim: CMC approves cancellation of treasury shares POSITIVE • Wizz Air: 24-hour strike called for 24 September by third-party Italian union • AUGA Group: coverage discontinued • Short News (CEZ)
HEADLINES: • GEVORKYAN: 2Q24 EBITDA down 12% yoy on one-off costs NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: 2Q24 slightly ahead of expectations NEUTRAL • CCC: change of Modivo CEO NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: potential acquisition of Magnolia Park • Kety: 3Q24E preview – stable EBITDA (+4% yoy) expected (due on 19 September)
Due to changes in analyst responsibilities, we transfer coverage of Kety, with a 12M price target (PT) of PLN 920/share, implying 20% upside potential and a BUY rating. Kety produces aluminium parts for the automotive industry, flexible packaging for the food industry, and aluminium systems for the construction industry. The company intends to present a new strategy by the end of this year, and we expect it to focus on foreign expansion through acquisitions. We believe this is a necessary strate...
A director at Grupa Kęty S.A. sold 2,096 shares at 905.000PLN and the significance rating of the trade was 83/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...
A director at Hellenic Bank sold 1,686,245 shares at 2.560EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
We are putting our coverage of the following stocks UNDER REVIEW, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks: Addiko Bank Alro Arion banki Bogdanka Cognor Holding DataWalk Gradus Grenevia Islandsbanki Kety TeraPlast
HEADLINES: • PZU: 2Q23 results stronger than expected, dividend yield due next week POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 2Q23 below our forecasts, in line with consensus; CDR satisfied with PL pre-orders NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: 2Q23 results - adjusted EBITDA up 10% yoy, 5% above the market consensus POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: 2Q23 - gross profit of EUR 16m, on 28% GPM, FY guidance reiterated • Sphera Group: minor miss in 2Q23 due to high base of post COVID-19 recovery NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: 1...
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • Europe macro: March brings good news for inflation and one red alert • InPost: 4Q22 miss on one-offs; single-digit markets growth guidance in FY23E; strong 1Q23 to date NEGATIVE • CD Projekt: 4Q22 EBITDA as expected; Phantom Liberty marketing campaign to be launched in June NEGATIVE • Mo-BRUK: 4Q22 headlines miss our expectations slightly, but due mostly to one-off costs NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Immofinanz: 4Q22 - no dividend from 2022 profit, books rev...
HEADLINES: • Hellenic Bank: an accretive asset (stays BUY) • Eurocash: 13% EBITDA beat in 4Q; effective tax rate below 30% POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: FY22 adjusted EBITDA in line with preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: soft 4Q22, but a strong start to 2023 • Alro: takeaways from the 4Q22 earnings call • OMV Petrom: potential amendments to solidarity tax legislation NEUTRAL • Polish banks: Polish newswires on works on legislative solution for FX mortgage saga • Short News (E...
We reiterate our BUY rating on Hellenic Bank (HB) and upgrade our price target (PT) to EUR 2.20/share (from EUR 1.80/share previously). We expect the bank to report a very strong 2023E, with a ROTE of >16%, driven by higher ECB rates and the recent cost-efficiency measures. The bank has very strong capital ratios (with a total capital ratio of >24%), significant capacity to pay dividends and a clean balance sheet (NPE ratio of 3.6%). The low valuation (P/TBV of 0.54x and P/E of 3.5x on 2023E) an...
HEADLINES: • Georgia macro: Georgian Dream withdraws legislation on "foreign agents" • Poland macro: NBP remains on hold • Romania macro: gently does it • Jumbo: strong February sales momentum and 2023E guidance • Asseco Poland: 4Q22 preliminary net profit reaches PLN 126m, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • OMV: creates geothermal joint venture with Wien Energie • Hellenic Bank: issues EUR 200m Tier 2 subordinated notes • Public Power Corporation: signs deal to acquire Enel's Romanian a...
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: upside, even with the solidarity tax (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: beat on headline 4Q22 net profit and books solid (and in line) recurrent earnings trends POSITIVE • Turkish Airlines: 4Q22 - yet another strong quarter, EBITDA 8% above the consensus POSITIVE • Hellenic Bank: FY22 results; FY23E guidance - profits could double • Petkim: 4Q22 results - weak EBITDA • 4iG: 4Q22 review - soft quarterly results, distorted by business transformation NEGATIVE • AmRest: key takea...
EME Equity Market – December 2022 Market performance – Turkey closed the year by outperforming the other markets, yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.0% mom in EUR terms and 5.9% mom in USD in December. Turkey was, again, the best performer, with the ISE30 index adding 6.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.8% mom in local currency terms. Positive performances were recorded by the WIG20 (+3.1% EUR / 3.2% lcl mom) and the ASE indices (+1.9% EUR mom) as well. On the other side, the Hungarian BUX de...
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