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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica and Cofinimmo: Exchange offer complete and new board members appointed. D'Ieteren: Change in CEO at Moleskine, preview FY25. Euronext: Positive volume momentum continues. Retail Estates: €27m retail park development. Staffing: French January trend softer on tough comps, February outlook better

Guy Sips ... (+3)
  • Guy Sips
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Wim Lewi
Francesca Ferragina ... (+2)
  • Francesca Ferragina
  • Michiel Vereycken

Behind the bricks/ING Real Estate Monthly – February roundup

This edition marks the launch of the ING Real Estate Monthly, your one-stop snapshot of what is moving in European real estate, with a focus on the Benelux.

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica: Conference call highlights. Basic-Fit: Belgian VAT increase for culture, sports and takeaway meals postponed. BE Semiconductor Industries: 4Q25 Preview, incremental strength. Kendrion: Preview - Clean into 2026. Magnum Ice Cream Company: Acquisition of Kwality Wall's launched. Retail Estates: Re-letting progress highlights portfolio quality. Semi Equipment: AMAT readthrough strength. Universal Music Group: EU Commission approves UMG's Downtown acquisition, requires full Curve Ro...

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+3)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Wim Lewi
  • Wim Lewi

Retail Estates 9m25/26 results, hit by Dutch Tax bill and Bankruptcies

NRI 9m25/26 amounts to €108.7m, +2.4% YoY vs. our expectation of €108.8m. The lfl growth amounted to 2.1%. EPRA EPS came in at €4.57, -2.97% YoY vs. €4.77 expected. The EPS was diluted by the stock dividend that raised €18m and added 2.2% to the share count (35% acceptance). The statement also mentions a 1.9m impact from the Dutch FBI abolition. We believe that the bankruptcies of Leen Bakker and Carpet Right also weighed on the operational results. Despite many bankruptcies, occupancy remained ...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ABN Amro: Miss but strong capital, good set of results / Ahold Delhaize: Strong 4Q25 but no major surprise on FY26 adj. EPS guidance / Alfen: No recovery yet and another transitional year / BAM Group: Preview: 2026 outlook the key item / Econocom: Better REBITA, net debt, but EBIT below, much lower net profit, dividend halved, 2026-28 guidance postponed to “medium term” / Exor: Ferrari 4Q25 and 2026 guidance beat / Gecina: Results and guidance in line, DPS set to grow over 2026-30 / Heineken: No...

Francesca Ferragina ... (+2)
  • Francesca Ferragina
  • Michiel Vereycken

Real Estate Update/A new normality

European real estate rebounded in 2025, signalling positive momentum after two difficult years. In 2026, we expect investors to adapt to a new, normalised environment with recalibrated profitability that should drive transaction activity. This comes alongside a normalisation of rents (on the back of lower inflation) – a slowdown that will be notable but largely expected. We see a company's ability (and willingness) to pursue EPS-accretive investments and being active in capital recycling opportu...

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+2)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Wim Lewi
ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Belgian telcos: Digi negative view on fibre deals, ups stake in Belgium to 76.9%. CFE: Preview - navigating challenging end markets. Retail Estates: Conference call highlights

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

CVC Capital Partners: Moment of realisations. Retail Estates: Results in line. SBM Offshore: Main topics of 3Q25 conference call

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+4)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Mathijs Geerts Danau
  • Wim Lewi
Wim Lewi
  • Wim Lewi

Retail Estates 1H25/26 Results, no big acquisition, but managing the b...

RET reported its 1H25/26 results (September end) slightly below our estimates. EPRA EPS amounted to €3.06 vs. our expectation of €3.10. NRI grew 2.95% to €72.7m vs. 74.0m expected. Despite many bankruptcies, occupancy remained relatively stable at 97.4% vs. 97.6% over 1H24/25. Out of 19 outlets in restructuring, RET has relet 2 and is in exclusive talks on 10. The difference with our expectations results largely from lower net investments of €5.1m vs. €40.0m expected. The debt ratio increased 0....

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Arcadis: Feedback from conference call 3Q25. Belgian telcos: Telenet positive net adds in broadband, near ECM decision. CTP: 34k sqm lease signed in Poland. Eurocommercial Properties: Organic momentum is getting stronger. Fugro: Reasonable 3Q, challenging 4Q and beyond. Heijmans: Order book quality improves further. KPN: VodafoneZiggo guidance maintained, ECM decision near. Proximus: CPaaS peer Twilio reports strong 3Q25 results. Retail Estates: Jysk new tenant of 5 Leen Bakker B...

Francesca Ferragina ... (+2)
  • Francesca Ferragina
  • Michiel Vereycken

Retail Estates/Model update/BUY

We update our model with added cautiousness on the top line but leave our bottom line and NTA projections almost unchanged. Our FY26-28F earnings CAGR is at c.2%. Despite some problematic tenants (Leen Bakker, Casa and Carpetright, accounting for c.2.5% of rents), Retail Estates has a history of being capable of quick/efficient reletting and good tenant mix improvement on the back of this. We confirm our positive stance on the company, which currently trades at a 21.3% NTA discount to its FY26F ...

Wim Lewi
  • Wim Lewi

Real Estate Report, Company Profiles

Over the past month, the EPRA BELUX index has underperformed (total return) the EPRA Developed Europe index by 3.2%, the STOXX50 by 5.4%, and the BEL20 by 3.6%. This underperformance relative to the EPRA Developed Europe Index can be attributed to the stronger performance of UK real estate compared to eurodenominated stocks, as UK equities led the recovery following a selloff in August. Additionally, the BELUX region had already posted strong year-to-date performance, which limited further upsid...

Jacob Mekhael ... (+4)
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ASM: Capital Markets Day; Heineken: LatAm boost; KBC: News on a potential ABN Amro deal: RoE dilution only, not to mention its strategy, point the other way; Retail Estates: Manageable impact of Carpetright bankruptcy in the Netherlands

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