reports
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Wim Lewi
Real Asset Conference feedback 19-20 March 2025
This note gathers feedback from the group meetings and the panels. In total 21 companies were presented in group meetings and/or panels. More than 100 guests found their way to the venue either physical or virtual (only panels). The 2 panels made for informative additions to the C-level meetings and a nice platform for discussion. Wednesday afternoon concentrated 4 experts from Logistic companies (CTP, Montea, VGP, WDP) for an interesting discussion on brownfields: " an answer to the scarcity of...
LEAS LEASINVEST REAL ESTATE SCA
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
COFB COFINIMMO SA
IMMO COMPAGNIE IMMOBILIERE DE BELGIQUE SA
RET RETAIL ESTATES NV
ELI ELIA GROUP SA/NV
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
QRF QRF COMM
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
ATEB ATENOR S.A.
ASC ASCENCIO SCA
VGP VGP NV
TINC TINC COMM. VA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
CTPNV CTP NV
HOMI HOME INVEST BELGIUM
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Wim Lewi
Real Assets Conference Book 19-20 March 2025
We publish our conference book with info on the panels, the graphs on the market and company profiles. European REITS suffered from macro and geo-political worries (logistics) Also, the European knee-jerk reaction on the bund (+60 bps) had a negative effect. We believe that despite these worries, REITS are a good place to hide, given their high visibility and proven growth potential in a tough environment. Our top-picks are Shurgard, WDP and Xior. SHUR and WDP have ample headroom on their balanc...
LEAS LEASINVEST REAL ESTATE SCA
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
COFB COFINIMMO SA
IMMO COMPAGNIE IMMOBILIERE DE BELGIQUE SA
RET RETAIL ESTATES NV
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
QRF QRF COMM
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
ATEB ATENOR S.A.
ASC ASCENCIO SCA
ARG ARGAN SA
VGP VGP NV
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
CTPNV CTP NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Fagron: FDA says semaglutide shortage is resolved. GBL: Imerys, a challenge and a possible solution. Food Delivery: Prosus set to acquire Just Eat Takeaway. PostNL: Final FY24 results in line, FY25 outlook below due to strategic investments. Retail Estates: 9-month update with no surprises
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Lewi
Retail Estates 9m24/25 results, outlook unchanged, NL acquisition
of 106.1m. EPRA EPS came in at EUR 4.71, +3.10% YoY vs. 4.72 expected. RET confirmed its FY24/25 dividend of EUR 5.10. In the past, this guidance already included an additional EUR 1.46m that will be spent on building maintenance. This is now concentrated in the current last quarter of FY24/25. The debt ratio decreased from 44.62% to 43.49% over 3Q and stays well in the safe zone. Cost of Debt decreased to 2.12% vs. 2.30% over previous year. The EPRA NTA increased from EUR 78.15 to EUR 78.63 per...
- Francesca Ferragina
Benelux Real Estate sector update/Wind of change
With an improving macroeconomic outlook and companies trading at appealing multiples, we are positive on the Benelux real estate sector (current discount to 2024F NAV of 25.6% vs average 2019-23 premium of 4% for our coverage universe). We believe the transaction market is set to reopen as companies step out of defensive mode with valuations stabilising and balance sheets in order. Following some first meaningful deals seen in 4Q24, we expect more to come. During 2025, we expect the attention to...
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Wim Lewi
Real Estate Report December 2024
BE-REITS suffer from macro-worries (logistics) and post-Trump knee-jerk reaction. We believe that especially money flows are pushing stocks down as interest rate fears resurfaced in the US. Our top-picks are Shurgard, WDP and Xior. SHUR and WDP have ample headroom on their balance sheet to continue their growth track record. WDP is also very cheap on cash earnings metrics vs. peers. Xior can grow and fix its balance sheet at the same time through contributions in kind.
LEAS LEASINVEST REAL ESTATE SCA
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
COFB COFINIMMO SA
IMMO COMPAGNIE IMMOBILIERE DE BELGIQUE SA
RET RETAIL ESTATES NV
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
QRF QRF COMM
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
ATEB ATENOR S.A.
ASC ASCENCIO SCA
ARG ARGAN SA
VGP VGP NV
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
CTPNV CTP NV
HOMI HOME INVEST BELGIUM
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
- Francesca Ferragina
Retail Estates/Cautiousness on tenants and consumers/BUY
While 1H results were overall good with guidance being reconfirmed, RET showed some level of cautiousness on tenants and consumers' environment. Certain tenants' profitability appears to be under pressure, while consumers have a more cautious approach to spending. On a positive note, out of 22 stores left empty from problematic tenants (out of a total of >1000 store), 11 already have a new occupier. For contracts that are to be renegotiated over the next 6 to 12 months, there are no discussions ...
- ING Helpdesk
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Lewi
Retail Estates 1H24/25 Results, managing the reletting well
RET reported its 1H24/25 results (September end) slightly below our estimates. EPRA Net profit grew 1.9%. EPRA EPS amounted to EUR 3.12 vs. our expectation of 3.16. NRI grew 4.6% to 70.6m vs. 72.2.9m expected. Occupancy declined slightly to 97.6% from 97.9%. Retail Estates was confronted with some bankruptcies in the toy (Fun) and fashion (Euro Shoe) segment, but has so far managed the re-letting extremely well. These bankruptcies have soured the sentiment on the stock. However, RET confirmed i...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- ING Helpdesk
- Francesca Ferragina
Retail Estates/A resilient portfolio with growth ambitions/BUY
We confirm our positive stance on Retail Estates and raise our target price from €72 to €74. In our view, the full year results were good overall and the c.3% LFL portfolio revaluation indicates the strong resilience of this retail niche. FY25 guidance did not surprise being in line with our numbers and largely positive, anticipating 3% YoY top line growth and 2% DPS increase. Retail Estates reiterated its aim to acquire assets in a new market if a good opportunity arises and is open to a contri...
- Wim Lewi
Retail Estates Conference Call Feedback
Positive mood in the call as RET realised the highest profit on record and confirms that it has digested the COVID period well and experts are catching up to this reality. On the CiK in BXL, no more details were given, but the estimated investment value is set at 40m (top of our estimate range). Entering a new country was mentioned again, but prices are still not where they can act upon (close to financing cost), but as the P/NTA discount decreases, chances can open up over time.
- ING Helpdesk
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Lewi
Retail Estates FY23/24 Results: In line on lfl basis, aiming for a ret...
RET reported its FY23/24 results (March end) more or less in line with our estimates. EPRA Net profit grew LfL 9.77% yoy (excl. FBI refunds). EPS amounted to EUR 6.18 a LfL growth of 6.81%. We expected an EPRA EPS of EUR 6.28. The cost of debt rose to 2.3% (vs. 2.2% expected). NRI however surpassed our expectation at 138.8m vs. 137.9m expected. RET indicates it is considering a contribution in kind for a retail park in the Brussels periphery (no financial details). We estimate a 20-40m investmen...
- Inna Maslova
Retail Estates - FY23/24 solid, guiding for more growth
FY23/24 closed end March 2024. EPRA earnings up 9.77% on a LfL basis (excl. impact of the FBI provision reversal in the previous financial year, flat otherwise) to EUR 88.4m. On a per share basis, the result was up 6.8% YoY on a LfL basis to EUR 6.18, below our EUR 6.59 estimate. The difference with our estimate primarily stems from higher corporate and interest expenses.Portfolio value was up 2.96% on a LfL basis to EUR 2.03bn. EPRA NIY stands at 6.61%, down 18bps.The company is considering an ...
- Wim Lewi
Retail Estates Out of Town stands its ground in an online world
In recent decades, OOT stores have become an integral part of the BE/NL retail sector ranging from large supermarkets to specialized retail chains. Traffic congestion around retail parks and the negative impact on inner city retail have become concerns, but OOT stores and retail parks remain a popular shopping destination. They withstood the e-commerce acceleration during COVID. In this note we discuss how the OOT segment adapted to the new online reality and managed to maintain high occupancy r...
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