reports
- Sevgi Onur
Turkish Banking Sector - Well-positioned for the long-awaited rate cut...
Turkish banking sector is poised for strong earnings rebound in 2025-2026, driven by recovering margins and an improving macroeconomic backdrop. After an estimated 18% sector-wide EPS decline in 2024, aggregate EPS is forecast to surge by 63% in 2025, followed by another 61% growth in 2026. Key drivers include a significant NIM recovery amid rate cuts, continued (though moderating) fee income growth, and normalization of trading gains. Sector ROAE is projected to rise to 27% in 2025E and 33% in...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: EME indices mostly in the red in A...
EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
KRKG KRKA D.D.
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
DOC DO & CO AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
MAVI MAVI GIYIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
BOROUGE BOROUGE
7203 ELM CO
TRESTATES TRADE ESTATES REIC SA
THEON THEON INTERNATIONAL PLC
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
BOCHGR BANK OF CYPRUS
DSPW DOOSAN SKODA POWER A.S.
DIAG DIAGNOSTYKA SA
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: THEON NA; KRU PW; SAB1L LH; MCOVB SS; OTKAR TI; TOASO TI; ...
HEADLINES: • Theon International: 1Q25 trading update – strong execution, rich options POSITIVE • Kruk: 1Q25 results, beat driven by Wonga, debt purchased segment in line, but slowing growth dynamics NEUTRAL • Siauliu Bankas: rather weak 1Q25, but maintained outlook should provide some support NEGATIVE • Medicover: 1Q25 beat on admin costs and other financial income POSITIVE • Otokar: 1Q25 results – continuing losses on the operating and bottom lines • Tofas: weak set of results in 1Q25, as anti...
KRU KRUK S.A.
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
BELA JUMBO S.A.
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
MAVI MAVI GIYIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
HUGE HUUUGE
THEON THEON INTERNATIONAL PLC
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: DOC AV; DIA PW; ALR PW; MONET CP; MYTIL GA; 11B PW; MBR PW...
HEADLINES: • DO & CO: the art of the meal (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Diagnostyka: strong 4Q24, in line with the prelims NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: 1Q25 a little below 1Q25E expectations, but valuation (1Q25 P/BV at 1.2x) still very low NEUTRAL • MONETA Money Bank: 1Q25 results almost in line with expectations, ROE of 18% fully priced in by 1Q25 P/BV of 2.2x NEUTRAL • Metlen Energy & Metals: 1Q25 sales +31% yoy, to EUR 1.5bn, in line NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: strategy update, expands pipeline to...
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
DOC DO & CO AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DSPW DOOSAN SKODA POWER A.S.
DIAG DIAGNOSTYKA SA
- Can Demir
- Miguel Dias
Turkish Banks: weather vs. climate (reinitiating on Akbank, Garanti, I...
Despite the near-term relief from expected rate cuts, we believe that the Turkish banks continue to operate in a structurally-challenging environment – characterised by cut-throat competition, stringent regulation, and bouts of macro uncertainty – where the risks to their long-term economic viability, particularly in the face of today’s high cost of capital, remain high. We would seek better entry points, which err on the side of caution regarding the banks’ long-term earnings power and do not r...
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
Markets were calmer last week as investors continue to look towards potential rate cuts in the US in September. Chair Jerome Powell at his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, 23 August, sent strong signals that the Fed is ready to cut key rates. “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear". Markets now price up to 100bp in US key rates cut till the end of the year and a further 125bp of cuts next year. We view the macro backdrop as supportive for EM credit, while new sup...
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
PUMA PUMA ENERGY ZAMBIA PLC
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
103M SASOL LIMITED
QNBFB QNB FINANSBANK A.S.
TSKB TURKIYE SINAI KALKINMA BANKASI AS
TTRAK TURK TRAKTOR VE ZIRAAT MAKINELERI A.S.
VAKBN TURKIYE VAKIFLAR BANKASI TURK ANONIM ORTAKLIGI
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE N.V.
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
Turkish bank sector update/Moving forward
We believe that Turkish banks passed the lowest point of the year in terms of net interest margins (NIM) in 2Q24. With some aspects of full-year guidance tweaked after the first-half reporting season, we now expect these banks' performance to be broadly in line with the updated FY24 targets.
- MarketLine Department
Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi Turk Anonim Ortaklig - Company Profile and SW...
Summary Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi Turk Anonim Ortaklig - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi Turk Anonim Ortaklig (VakifBank) offers retail, corporate, commercial, small and medium enterprise (SME) banking; investment; and private banking s...
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
QNBFB QNB FINANSBANK A.S.
TSKB TURKIYE SINAI KALKINMA BANKASI AS
VAKBN TURKIYE VAKIFLAR BANKASI TURK ANONIM ORTAKLIGI
ZRGYO ZIRAAT GAYRIMENKUL YATIRIM ORTAKLIGI AS
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
Some signs of cooling economic data out of the US, and the start of DM rate-cutting cycles has offered some optimism for EM assets, with the grind tighter in credit spreads continuing as seen for much of this year. We expect the benign environment to offer further opportunities for new issuance, while spread levels look fairly tight.
- Research Team
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
UST yields ticked higher this week amid a lack of macro data, while EM credit in general performed well. We expect spreads should remain well supported in the current environment but see little scope for valuations to grind much tighter absent a clearer policy shift from central banks or positive geopolitical news.
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
A volatile week for EM amid renewed sharp moves in the UST market, although spread levels in general held up relatively well. With focus returning to the US banking sector and uncertainty remaining around the path of the Fed, we expect macro volatility to continue to drive returns for EM credit and should see increased dispersion across names.
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkish stocks start the year with...
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
GARAN TURKIYE GARANTI BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
KRKG KRKA D.D.
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
7203 ELM CO
AQ AQUILA PART PROD COM
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MIL PW; GARAN TI; SNG RO; RICHT HB
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: solid 4Q23; how quickly FX mortgage saga costs can drop is key for the future NEUTRAL • Garanti Bank: 4Q23 results and 2024E guidance – flat 2024E margin, despite headwinds • Romgaz: 4Q23 trading update NEUTRAL • Richter: takes 9.08% stake in Formycon via capital increase NEUTRAL • Short News (AQ)
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: stellar market reaction in Poland ...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
GARAN TURKIYE GARANTI BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
GWI GLOBALWORTH REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS LIMITED
ALK ALKALOID AD SKOPJE
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
DOAS DOGUS OTOMOTIV SERVIS VE TICARET A.S.
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
PPA PIRAEUS PORT AUTHORITY S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
TRP TERAPLAST
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
KSPI KASPI KZ
HUGE HUUUGE
WINE ALRO SLATINA
4IG PURCARI WINERIES PCL
WPS 4IG NYRT
PCO W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
KLKIM PEPCO GROUP NV
ADNOCDRILL KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
AROBS ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
9526 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
SHO JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
4071 SHOPER SA
BOROUGE ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
7203 BOROUGE
ELM CO
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EU macro, MBK PW, PKN PW, GARAN TI, HSBK LI, OMV AV, SNP R...
HEADLINES: • EU macro: October sentiment positive in CEE and Turkey • mBank: 3Q23 results - key to us are the solid capital ratios and high FX mortgage portfolio coverage • Orlen: 3Q23 results review • Garanti Bank: 3Q23 results highlights NEUTRAL • Halyk Savings Bank: notes from the deep-dive session • OMV: 3Q23 results review • OMV Petrom: 3Q23 result good, but in line with expectations • RO utilities: RO state could consider selling shares in Hidroelectrica, Nuclearelectrica, Romgaz NE...
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S: 1 director
A director at Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S sold 610,000 shares at 53.903TRY and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two...
- Duygun Kutucu
Turkish Banking Sector
We anticipate that the relaxation of the regulatory framework and a return to more conventional policies will positively impact the banking sector. TL commercial loan/deposit spreads (front book), which had plummeted to as low as -18% by the end of June, have reached 6.6%, thanks to the removal of a cap on lending rates and lower deposit rates. Taking these favourable developments and strong 2Q23 results into account, we are raising our aggregate FY23 NI estimate for the sector by 10%. We now fo...
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