UST yields ticked higher this week amid a lack of macro data, while EM credit in general performed well. We expect spreads should remain well supported in the current environment but see little scope for valuations to grind much tighter absent a clearer policy shift from central banks or positive geopolitical news.
A volatile week for EM amid renewed sharp moves in the UST market, although spread levels in general held up relatively well. With focus returning to the US banking sector and uncertainty remaining around the path of the Fed, we expect macro volatility to continue to drive returns for EM credit and should see increased dispersion across names.
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: solid 4Q23; how quickly FX mortgage saga costs can drop is key for the future NEUTRAL • Garanti Bank: 4Q23 results and 2024E guidance – flat 2024E margin, despite headwinds • Romgaz: 4Q23 trading update NEUTRAL • Richter: takes 9.08% stake in Formycon via capital increase NEUTRAL • Short News (AQ)
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • EU macro: October sentiment positive in CEE and Turkey • mBank: 3Q23 results - key to us are the solid capital ratios and high FX mortgage portfolio coverage • Orlen: 3Q23 results review • Garanti Bank: 3Q23 results highlights NEUTRAL • Halyk Savings Bank: notes from the deep-dive session • OMV: 3Q23 results review • OMV Petrom: 3Q23 result good, but in line with expectations • RO utilities: RO state could consider selling shares in Hidroelectrica, Nuclearelectrica, Romgaz NE...
A director at Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S sold 610,000 shares at 53.903TRY and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two...
We anticipate that the relaxation of the regulatory framework and a return to more conventional policies will positively impact the banking sector. TL commercial loan/deposit spreads (front book), which had plummeted to as low as -18% by the end of June, have reached 6.6%, thanks to the removal of a cap on lending rates and lower deposit rates. Taking these favourable developments and strong 2Q23 results into account, we are raising our aggregate FY23 NI estimate for the sector by 10%. We now fo...
EME Equity Market – July 2023 Market performance – gains keep on rolling in all geographies, with special mention of Turkey’s stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 8.6% mom in EUR terms and 9.5% mom in USD in July. Turkey clearly outperformed its peers, gaining 18.6% mom in EUR terms. Most other geographies performed more or less at similar levels, with the Polish WIG20 in the upper part of the range, advancing 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and Czech PX indic...
Summary Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi Turk Anonim Ortaklig - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi Turk Anonim Ortaklig (VakifBank) offers retail, corporate, commercial, small and medium enterprise (SME) banking; investment; and private...
HEADLINES: • Garanti: 2Q23 highlights - in line with change of heart on discretionary provisions • Ford Otosan: 2Q23 financials - better-than-expected results POSITIVE • OMV: 2Q23 results - weak net income in 2Q23 • OMV Petrom: net loss in 2Q23, but lower than expected NEUTRAL • Borouge: 2Q23 results - in line • Alkaloid: 2Q23 - another strong quarter, with broad-based growth POSITIVE • Titan Cement: tailwinds from lower energy prices, construction demand POSITIVE • Mytilineos: CEO comfortabl...
With the key central bank meetings out of the way without any major hiccups, we expect the summer lull to start to set in for EM credit markets. However, with spread levels looking tight, investors will be on the lookout for further signs of intrenched inflation or weakness in the global economy, along with expectations for an uptick in supply from September.
While key central bank meetings passed this week without any major upset, the short-term outlook for EM is likely to be driven by global risk factors such as US banking system concerns and the debt ceiling. Spread widening could open up value given expectations for a more supportive medium-term backdrop.
EME Equity Market – April 2023 Market performance – in the black across all geographies, except for Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.9% mom in USD in April. The Polish WIG20 Index saw the biggest gains (+11.5% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+7.8% mom in EUR terms) and the Greek ASE Index (+2.9% mom in EUR terms). More muted performances were witnessed in the Czech PX Index and Romanian BET Index, both adding 1.7% mom in EUR terms for th...
HEADLINES: • mBank: bottom-line miss due to costs, but opportunity to BUY NEGATIVE • Erste Bank: books strong 1Q23 results, ahead of expectations, tweaks up FY23E guidance POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: neutral 1Q23 results - profit reported, capital still needs time to recover NEUTRAL • Otokar: 1Q23 results - miss on EBITDA and net income levels NEGATIVE • Tekfen Holding: weak 1Q23 results, due to margin hit in chemicals and one-off tax charge NEGATIVE • Garanti: 1Q23 highlights - better than expe...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • Kcell: new capex cycle ahead (downgraded to HOLD) • Santander Bank Polska: 4Q22 net profit in line, but hope for DPS potentially picking up POSITIVE • ING BSK: 4Q22 net profit in line with expectations, but softer on P&L mix • OMV Petrom: 4Q22 clean results in line, but upstream hit by RON 1.8bn unexpected impairments • OMV: 4Q22 results - net income well below expectations, big dividend proposal • US macro: Fed preparing the grounds for a pause • Garanti: 4Q22 highlights - 202...
Garanti delivers 56.1% RoE in 4Q: Garanti Bank reported bank-only net income of TL19.9bn in 4Q22 (+14% q/q, +390% y/y) (RoE: 56.1%), higher than both our (TL18.3bn) and consensus estimates (TL19.1bn), thanks to higher-than-expected NIM and fee income. As such, net income in FY22 reached TL58.5bn (50.3% RoE), equating to a 330% y/y growth. According to BBVA’s figures, Garanti’s net income was TL5.0bn net income in 4Q22 according to IFRS financials, which includes hyperinflationary accounting. Gar...
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
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