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- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA: Updating for Versant spin, new PT is $34
Having digested the revised trending schedules for the Versant spin, we are updating our Comcast model for the new disclosures, our conversations with management, and for comments at industry conferences. In this note, we compare the disclosures in the new trending schedule with prior reports. We also share our updated operating and financial estimates for 1Q and full year 2026. Finally, we have updated our valuation for the Versant spin and revised our Comcast price target to $34.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
AMN AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES INC.
TMUS T-MOBILE US INC.
VKTX VIKING THERAPEUTICS
PG PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY
MKTX MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC.
MCS MARCUS CORPORATION
KURA KURA ONCOLOGY INC.
HUN HUNTSMAN CORPORATION
FFIV F5 NETWORKS INC.
EMN EASTMAN CHEMICAL COMPANY
EDIT EDITAS MEDICINE INC.
CALM CAL-MAINE FOODS INC.
BCRX BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICALS INC.
AWR AMERICAN STATES WATER COMPANY
FF FUTUREFUEL CORP.
JW.A JOHN WILEY & SONS INC. CLASS A
ENPH ENPHASE ENERGY INC.
PRAA PRA GROUP INC.
MLR MILLER INDUSTRIES INC.
PMTS CPI CARD GROUP
RCKT ROCKET PHARMACEUTICALS
KDP KEURIG DR PEPPER INC.
TW TRADEWEB MARKETS INC. CLASS A
NET CLOUDFLARE INC CLASS A
CZR CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT INC
DYN DYNE THERAPEUTICS
RELY REMITLY GLOBAL INC
VTEX VTEX
PFHC PROFRAC HLDG CORP
CAVA CAVA GROUP INC
AESI NEW ATLAS HOLDCO INC
KEI KOLIBRI GLOBAL ENERGY INC
RNAC CARTESIAN THERAPEUTICS INC
NEXN NEXXEN INTERNATIONAL LTD
STRZ STARZ ENTERTAINMENT CORP
ATOM 21SHARES COSMOS ETP
GRND TIGA ACQUISITION CORP
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
Quick Hit: GFiber combines with Astound Broadband…who’s affected?
GFiber just announced it is combining with Astound Broadband. In this report we take a deep dive into the footprints of the two companies and analyze their overlap with the major Cable and Fiber operators. This new entity joins Brightspeed, Uniti, and Ziply in the pantheon of private fiber residential overbuilder/aggregators.
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
Broadband cNPS comparisons by tech & operator - The latest data availa...
Scouring the data in this report, we’d point you to the appendix for a quick review. What stands out is that when a broadband customer interacts with a sales rep, presumably they are doing so with a problem or request that an automated or AI-driven IVR cannot address. Almost without fail, sales rep interactions are the Achilles heal of the market right now and likely a core reason, care scores suffer. The operator that can solve this puzzle, and it could be cable, has a window to shift their rel...
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
Broadband Spring 2026 – A fine time for FWA
In this Broadband Spring report, we share a quick update on broadband industry trends from 4Q25 heading into 2026E. Industry net adds improved meaningfully in 4Q25 from a year ago but remained slightly below last year when we adjust for the loss of ACP. Net adds for the quarter were in line with the pre-pandemic norm but trailing twelve-month net adds remain below pre-pandemic levels. We take a deep-dive here into FWA’s continued strong momentum, by carrier, and how it fits into the overall broa...
- David Barden
Takeaways from Metro Connect 2026 Day One
Greetings from sunny, if chilly Fort Lauderdale where we are attending Metro Connect which one of our companies described as one of the two most important infrastructure conferences of the year. We are soooo lucky not to have gotten snowed in. If you are in the northeast, please stay warm! We just wrapped Day One where we had meetings and run-ins with many, primarily, small to mid-size private fiber operators. In this short note, we present our key takeaways from our conversations at the event.
- Blair Levin
What Policies Matter to Telco’s Success: Supply Side or Demand Side? ...
T CEO John Stankey recently said that “I’ve never seen federal policy this supportive of market-based investment in advanced networks.” That statement raises multiple interesting investor related questions about what does, and does not, support investment in advanced networks, including the relative importance of those policies that drive supply and those that drive demand, and how government is treating advanced networks versus networks that have lower cost structures but also involve lower pe...
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA: The value unlock trade? Nope. No major change in fundamentals
We shared our view of Comcast’s results this morning. Results were in line and commentary on the business fundamentals were mostly unchanged. In this note following the earnings call and our follow-up conversations, we address the following key investor issues including 1) the big picture value unlock theory; 2) the newly (apparently) amended VZ MVNO agreement; 3) broadband ARPU growth; 4) Connectivity EBITDA growth; 5) 2026 capital spend; 6) wireless net adds, and 7) 2026 FCF.
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA 4Q25 Quick Take: Results mostly in line; Waiting to hear what’s ...
Comcast’s results were mostly in line with estimates. Broadband losses and ARPU were in line. On the call, we would be keen to hear about subscriber trends in 1Q. We don’t expect any major changes to the stock price based on these results. What will drive the stock today is commentary on 1Q broadband trends and potential ‘value unlock’ from an NBCU spin.
- Blair Levin
Can CMCSA Buy CHTR After the Cox Deal is Done?
With the CHTR/Cox deal moving towards approval and CMCSA out of running for WBD, we are again getting questions as to whether CMCSA could buy the combined CHTR/Cox entity. Further, as our New Street colleagues discussed yesterday, there has been a divergence in the stock price performances of Comcast and Charter driven by a potential ‘value unlock’ resulting from a potential split of Comcast cable from NBCU. It is beyond the scope of our expertise to analyze the financial details that could jus...
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA: Potential Value Unlock?
Investors have been asking about the diverging stock price performance between Comcast and Charter. We believe the reason is an expanding conversation about the potential ‘value unlock’ that could emerge were Comcast to split its cable and NBCU businesses. In this note, we estimate what Comcast could be worth were this scenario to play out. To be clear, we are skeptical. Not that it shouldn’t happen, but rather the Roberts’ are too invested in their belief about the synergy between these entitie...
- David Barden
The future of US wireless, right now - Extrapolating 3Q25 wireless tre...
We are taking 3Q25 results and the most recent cNPS data and laying out our latest thinking and forecasts ahead of 4Q results. We expect 4Q results and attendant 2026 guidance to contain material information value for investors and we wanted to share our latest forecasts, data, and trends as a starting point as we navigate this impactful season.
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
A deeper dive on 'terminal' broadband market share
We recently published our Future of Broadband report where we predicted Cable’s broadband market share will continue to fall for the foreseeable future. We got the question, 'what is cable market share looking like in the most mature fiber markets, is it asymptoting?'. The answer is no. In this report, we use data from our Opensignal partnership to show that Cable’s subscriber market share has continued to fall in markets where they compete against only one fiber provider over a multi-year perio...
- Blair Levin
Part Three of Year in Preview: Our Analysis about Policyband’s Predict...
This week we published three notes that preview what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment. In the first, we evaluated what questions do we not know the answer to today but will in a year that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In the second, we looked at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out. In this third one we evaluate nine predictions mad...
- Blair Levin
Part Two of Year in Preview: What about SATS, BEAD, Spectrum, and Othe...
This week we are publishing three notes that analyze what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment in the year ahead. In the first one, published yesterday we evaluated questions that we do not know the answer to today--but will in a year--that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In this second one, we look at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out i...
- Blair Levin
In Partial Win for Cable, Trump Memoranda Appears to Protect CBRS
Late Friday, President Trump released a new Presidential Memoranda on 6G and Spectrum. While what the Memoranda said is largely a restatement of what we have previously reported, we think the most important element for investors is what it didn’t say; specifically, that by omission it appears to protect the spectrum known as the Citizens Band Radio Services (CBRS) currently used by cable (and others) for wireless services. In this note we provide an analysis of the Memoranda.
- Vikash Harlalka
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA Quick Hit: A Merger Between NBCU and WBD?
Press reports indicate that Comcast has submitted a revised bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and has offered to merge it with its NBCUniversal division (NBCU). WBD shareholders would receive a mix of cash and stock in the new entity. We think there are merits to this transaction but getting a deal approved by the regulators could prove challenging.
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