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Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

PSA Autos / New Mobility: The Fraught Path to Electrification

Given that the EV market is not a free market, led by demand and supply, but a distorted market, moved by political intervention in the form of subsidies (or lack of), making EV sales forecasts is very challenging indeed. This is a headache for analysts, but even more so for auto companies with a ten-year planning horizon. In this report, we outline the sales situation for different regions, as well as providing an outlook based on currently available information.

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 11 0CTUBRE + RDOS. EUROPA 3T’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADEL...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ACERINOX, IBERDROLA, NATURGY, SACYR, SECTOR ELÉCTRICO. EUROPA: AIRBUS, PREVIOS RESULTADOS 3T’24, SANOFI. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’24 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. El Ibex corta su racha Las ventas se impusieron en Europa, sobre todo en el Ibex, que acumu...

Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 11 OCTOBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACERINOX, ELECTRICITY SECTOR, IBERDROLA, NATURGY, SACYR. The IBEX ends its streak Stock markets in Europe fell, especially the IBEX, which had seen gains in five straight sessions and closed yesterday as the worst performer in Europe. In the STOXX 600, most sectors (15/20) closed with losses, led by Industrials and Technology, with Energy and Insurance posting the biggest gains. In the euro zone, the ECB’s last meeting minutes warned that despite the fact that inflation has fallen...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 07 0CTUBRE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ENAGÁS, IBERDROLA, SANTANDER, TALGO. La guerra Israel/Irán no da tregua y se suma la campaña de resultados El temor a una escalada de la tensión en Oriente Medio llevó a un fuerte repunte del petróleo y caídas en las principales bolsas europeas que no pudieron ser totalmente revertidas a pesar de los buenos datos macro en EE.UU. Dentro de los sectoriales del STOXX 600, Energía destacó como el mejor sector seguido por Recursos Básicos mientras que Au...

Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 07 OCTOBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ENAGÁS, IBERDROLA, SANTANDER, TALGO. The Israel-Iran war intensifies and joins the results season The fear of escalating tensions in the Middle East led to drops on the main European stock markets that were not fully reversed despite the good macroeconomic data released in the US and a sharp rise in oil prices. Within the STOXX 600 sectors, Energy stood out as the best performer, followed by Basic Materials, whereas Autos, Luxury and Travel & Leisure (dragged down by the geopoliti...

Nicolas David
  • Nicolas David

ODDO : Iberian Forum – Day 2

We hosted our 4th ODDO BHF Iberian Forum on the 1st and 2nd of October 2024, virtually. In total, 63 companies were present. In the following note, we provide some initial feedback from the companies on day 2. - >ACS (=): good operating momentum maintained, Abertis and its dividends on the front page - Atresmedia (=): Q3 should be challenging but outlook reiterated - Befesa (=): zinc prices held up well, offsetting the negative impact of maintenance on Q3 volumes - CaixaBank ...

Christophe Chaput ... (+3)
  • Christophe Chaput
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : The recovery is only beginning and the best is yet to come

The rate cut carried out and yet to come (ECB: -125bp to -150bp to come by end-2025e) is a real driver for listed real estate and creates the conditions enabling it to outperform. In this context, we are lifting 23 target prices for the 42 stocks covered. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia and Xior Student Housing are now our Top Picks. Aedifica (Outperform vs Neutral) should also benefit. Lastly, we are lowering Care Property to Neutral and SFL to Underperform. - >...

Christophe Chaput ... (+3)
  • Christophe Chaput
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : La reprise ne fait que commencer et le meilleur est à venir

La baisse de taux actée et à venir (BCE : -125 à 150 pb à venir d’ici fin 2025e) agit comme un véritable catalyseur pour l’immobilier côté et crée les conditions lui permettant de surperformer. Dans ce cadre, nous relevons 23 objectifs de cours sur 42 valeurs suivies. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia et Xior Student Housing constituent désormais nos top picks. Aedifica (Surperformance vs Neutre) devrait également en bénéficier. Enfin, nous abaissons Care Property à N...

Nicolas David
  • Nicolas David

ODDO : Iberian Forum – Day 1

We host our 4th ODDO BHF Iberian Forum on the 1st and 2nd of October 2024 virtually. In total, 63 companies will be presenting. In the following note, we provide some initial feedback of the company on day 1. - >Acciona (=) : Confidence in Non-energy business steady, Acciona Energía stake sparks intense scrutiny - Acciona Energia (=/-) : A trajectory beyond 2024 to be explained at the 9 months results - Acerinox (=/-): Softness persists in Europe and US - Amadeus (=/+): sol...

Aedas Homes S.A: 1 director

A director at Aedas Homes S.A sold 9,364 shares at 25.494EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 27 SEPTIEMBRE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: GRUPO CATALANA OCCIDENTE, IBERDROLA. EUROPA: AIRBUS, LVMH. China sigue animando los mercados Nueva jornada de rebote tras las caídas del día anterior y con los estímulos de China como principal protagonista. El Ibex por su parte superó los 11.900 puntos marcando máximos de 2010. En el STOXX 600 los mejores sectores fueron B. Consumo y R. Básicos frente a Energía que fue el peor con caídas superiores al -3,0%. Por el lado macro, en la Eurozona la M...

Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 27 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: GRUPO CATALANA OCCIDENTE, IBERDROLA. China continues to spur the markets Another rally following the previous day’s drops, and with stimulus measures in China in the spotlight, where in addition to those already known, there could be capital injections in the country’s main banks over the coming days. The IBEX rose above 11,900 points, hitting a high since 2010. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were Consumer Goods and Basic Materials vs. Energy, which was the worst pe...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int'l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023. In late-July (7/25/24 Int'l Compass) we discussed expectations for a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and we believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from our selected 7/17/24 starting point, until the market decides which way this...

Louis Boujard ... (+3)
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Philippe Ourpatian

ODDO : A gradual weaning

‘Soft landing’... the term is in vogue and we think it aptly describes the current situation in the energy market. After a period of “excess profits”, the fundamentals are back in favour and prompt us to revise down our estimates for energy prices. - Alongside renewable energies, pockets of sustainable value creation are emerging for players capable of capitalising on the structural growth in volatility on the electricity markets but which are nonetheless trading at a discount In ...

Louis Boujard ... (+3)
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Philippe Ourpatian

ODDO : Un sevrage dans la douceur

“Soft landing”… le terme est à la mode et nous pensons qu’il caractérise bien la situation du marché de l’énergie aujourd’hui. Après une parenthèse de « surprofits », les fondamentaux reprennent leur droit et nous conduisent à réviser en baisse nos hypothèses de prix de l’énergie. A côté du renouvelable, des poches pérennes de création de valeur apparaissent pour les acteurs capables de profiter de la croissance structurelle de la volatilité des marchés électriques et qui souffre...

Louis Boujard ... (+4)
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Marc Lavaud
  • Philippe Ourpatian

Iberdrola : More than ever the sector benchmark… but everything comes ...

Iberdrola is the strategic benchmark in the universe of integrated utilities. Since 2001, the group has pursued a resilient strategy of profitable growth (renewables and networks), geographic expansion and attractive shareholder returns (TSR average annual of 17.9%). But based on the strong share's performance and the low residual upside on our target price of € 15.30, we have lowered our rating to Neutral vs Outperform. - >Upside limited to around 10% - Iberdrola’s c...

Louis Boujard ... (+4)
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Marc Lavaud
  • Philippe Ourpatian

Iberdrola : Plus que jamais la référence sectorielle… mais tout à un p...

Iberdrola est la référence stratégique dans le secteur des utilities intégrées. Depuis 2001, le groupe poursuit une stratégie résiliente de croissance rentable (renouvelable et réseaux), d’expansion géographique et de rémunération attractive des actionnaires (TSR annuel moyen 17.9%). Toutefois, la forte performance du titre et le faible potentiel résiduel à notre objectif de cours de 15.3 €, nous amènent à abaisser l’opinion à Neutre vs Surperformance. - >Un potentiel de r...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 25 SEPTIEMBRE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: OHLA, SACYR, SANTANDER, TALGO. EUROPA: DHL, PROSUS, SAP. China anima a parte del mercado Los sectores cíclicos de Europa reaccionaron con fuertes subidas al anuncio de estímulos por parte de la Autoridad Monetaria china (PBoC). Así, en el STOXX 600 los mejores sectores fueron R. Básicos y B. Consumo (lujo) frente a Inmobiliario y S. Financieros que sufrieron las mayores caídas. Por el lado macro, en Alemania el IFO de septiembre descendió algo más d...

Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 25 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: OHLA, SACYR, SANTANDER, TALGO. China spurs section of market Cyclical sectors in Europe reacted with sharp gains to the announcement of stimulus measures from the PBoC. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were Basic Materials and Consumer Goods (Luxury), with Real Estate and Financial Services falling the most. On the macro side, in Germany September’s IFO fell slightly more than expected, suggesting a slight contraction in the 3Q’24 GDP. From the ECB, K. Knot (President...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 20 SEPTIEMBRE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: GRIFOLS, MINOR HOTELS, VISCOFAN. EUROPA: MERCEDES BENZ GROUP, VOLKSWAGEN El mercado, y sobre todo los cíclicos, celebran la decisión de la Fed Las bolsas europeas subieron con fuerza el jueves a pesar de la apreciación del euro, con la confianza de que la Fed logrará un aterrizaje “suave” de la economía estadounidense. En el STOXX 600 los mejores fueron cíclicos muy castigados recientemente como Tecnología y R. Básicos mientras que Utilities y Telec...

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