reports
- Jovan Sikimic
- Jovan Sikimic
- Jovan Sikimic
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: SPL PW; TL Macro; DNP PW; CZG CP; 4IG HB
HEADLINES: • Santander Bank Polska: sells 60% stake in SCB for 2024 P/BV of 1.2x, books modest gain of PLN 0.4bn NEGATIVE • Türkiye macro: weak BoP, but improving budget • Dino: AGM approves 1:10 share split NEUTRAL • Colt CZ Group SE: closes VSS acquisition • 4iG: signs non-binding term sheet to acquire nine defence subsidiaries from N7 Holding NEUTRAL
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Timothy Rahill
Credit Outlook update/An unstoppable force against an immovable object
As we approach summer and reflect upon the already very busy and volatile first half of the year, we review our Credit Markets Outlook for 2025 and offer an update on our views, positioning and forecasts for the remainder of the year. We include our Picks and Pans on the Utilities, TMT, Real Estate and Bank sectors.
GFC GECINA SA
PBB DEUTSCHE PFANDBRIEFBANK AG
PSA PUBLIC STORAGE
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
ORSTED ORSTED
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
ICAD ICADE SA
DLR DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC.
TEF TELEFONICA SA
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
GRDDY GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/Norwegian preferred senior, ECB rating rules, RBI damages,...
Norwegian preferred senior to face some performance boundaries. ECB collateral: Rating rule changes will hardly impact preferred senior. Raiffeisen Bank International completes payment of damages. Commerzbank AT1 tender results
- Marine Leleux
- Maureen Schuller
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Bank Brunch/Norwegian preferred senior, ECB rating rules, RBI damages,...
Norwegian preferred senior to face some performance boundaries. ECB collateral: Rating rule changes will hardly impact preferred senior. Raiffeisen Bank International completes payment of damages. Commerzbank AT1 tender results
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: EME indices mostly in the green in...
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
KRKG KRKA D.D.
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
RICHT RICHTER
M MED LIFE
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
R22 R22
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
KSPI KASPI KZ
INPST INPOST S.A.
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
CTPNV CTP NV
VRC VERCOM SA
GPP GRUPA PRACUJ DA
KLKIM KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
GIG GAMING INNOVATION GROUP
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
2381 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
9526 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
SHO SHOPER SA
4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
7203 ELM CO
OPTIMAr OPTIMA BANK S.A.
AQ AQUILA PART PROD COM
TRESTATES TRADE ESTATES REIC SA
AIRA AIR ASTANA JSC
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
BOCHGR BANK OF CYPRUS
ZAB ZABKA GROUP
DSPW DOOSAN SKODA POWER A.S.
DIAG DIAGNOSTYKA SA
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Bruno Cavalier
- Steven Boumans
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
APAML APERAM SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
LI KLEPIERRE SA
COV COVIVIO SA
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
GFC GECINA SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
FLY SOCIETE FONCIERE LYONNAISE SA
GYC GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
TNG TRANSGENE SA
MERY MERCIALYS SA
EVN EVN AG
SZG SALZGITTER AG
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
KCO KLOECKNER & CO SE
BLND BRITISH LAND COMPANY PLC
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KOF KAUFMAN & BROAD SA
JCQ JACQUET METALS SA
KER KERING SA
ALTA ALTAREA SCA
VNA VONOVIA SE
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
ERA ERAMET SA
ICAD ICADE SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
BYG BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC
COFB COFINIMMO SA
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
TEG TAG IMMOBILIEN AG
VASTB VASTNED RETAIL BELGIUM NV
PSPN PSP SWISS PROPERTY AG
UBS UBM DEVELOPMENT AG
SPSN SWISS PRIME SITE AG
PAT PATRIZIA AG
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
CARM CARMILA SAS
LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
SAFE SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC
ARG ARGAN SA
VGP VGP NV
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
DIC DIC ASSET AG
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
DKG DEUTSCHE KONSUM REIT-AG
BP. BP P.L.C.
HOME NEINOR HOMES SA
AT1 AROUNDTOWN SA
LAND LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC
MVC METROVACESA SA
NSI NSI N.V.
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
INS INSTONE REAL ESTATE GROUP AG
AEDAS AEDAS HOMES SA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
CTPNV CTP NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
TTS TRANSPORT TRADE SVCS
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
ATO ATOS SE
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Bruno Cavalier
- Steven Boumans
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
APAML APERAM SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
LI KLEPIERRE SA
COV COVIVIO SA
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
GFC GECINA SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
FLY SOCIETE FONCIERE LYONNAISE SA
GYC GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
MERY MERCIALYS SA
SZG SALZGITTER AG
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
KCO KLOECKNER & CO SE
BLND BRITISH LAND COMPANY PLC
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KOF KAUFMAN & BROAD SA
JCQ JACQUET METALS SA
KER KERING SA
ALTA ALTAREA SCA
VNA VONOVIA SE
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
BAS BASF SE
SAN SANOFI
ICAD ICADE SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
BYG BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC
COFB COFINIMMO SA
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
TEG TAG IMMOBILIEN AG
VASTB VASTNED RETAIL BELGIUM NV
PSPN PSP SWISS PROPERTY AG
UBS UBM DEVELOPMENT AG
SPSN SWISS PRIME SITE AG
PAT PATRIZIA AG
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
CARM CARMILA SAS
LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
SAFE SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC
ARG ARGAN SA
VGP VGP NV
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
DIC DIC ASSET AG
NN NN GROUP N.V.
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
DKG DEUTSCHE KONSUM REIT-AG
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
BP. BP P.L.C.
HOME NEINOR HOMES SA
AT1 AROUNDTOWN SA
LAND LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC
MVC METROVACESA SA
NSI NSI N.V.
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
INS INSTONE REAL ESTATE GROUP AG
AEDAS AEDAS HOMES SA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
DSY DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
CTPNV CTP NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
GSK GSK PLC
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
H2O HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Florent Laroche-Joubert
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
COV COVIVIO SA
GFC GECINA SA
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
FLY SOCIETE FONCIERE LYONNAISE SA
GYC GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
MERY MERCIALYS SA
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
BLND BRITISH LAND COMPANY PLC
KOF KAUFMAN & BROAD SA
ALTA ALTAREA SCA
VNA VONOVIA SE
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
ICAD ICADE SA
BYG BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC
COFB COFINIMMO SA
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
TEG TAG IMMOBILIEN AG
VASTB VASTNED RETAIL BELGIUM NV
PSPN PSP SWISS PROPERTY AG
UBS UBM DEVELOPMENT AG
SPSN SWISS PRIME SITE AG
PAT PATRIZIA AG
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
CARM CARMILA SAS
LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
SAFE SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC
ARG ARGAN SA
VGP VGP NV
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
DIC DIC ASSET AG
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
DKG DEUTSCHE KONSUM REIT-AG
HOME NEINOR HOMES SA
AT1 AROUNDTOWN SA
LAND LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC
MVC METROVACESA SA
NSI NSI N.V.
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
INS INSTONE REAL ESTATE GROUP AG
AEDAS AEDAS HOMES SA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
CTPNV CTP NV
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EBS AV; SPL PW; EME Macro/Strategy – CIS; PCF PW; ECH PW; ...
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank Group: smart leverage, strong thesis (stays BUY) • Santander Bank Polska: no such thing as plug and play in M&A (downgraded to HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: CIS plus – a good growth juncture, amid global policy shifts • PCF Group: 1Q25 results miss expectations, on lower portion of costs being capitalised NEGATIVE • Echo Investment (HOLD, PT PLN 3.1): 1Q25 – only a handful of deliveries means a weak P&L • Duna House: 1Q25 results– first look positive POSITIVE • DataWalk: ke...
- Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
- Miguel Dias
Erste Bank Group: smart leverage, strong thesis (stays BUY)
We keep Erste Bank as a BUY and set our new 12M price target (PT) at EUR 85.1 (up from EUR 57.0), offering 20% upside. This profound PT increase is due to two factors: first, we have raised our 2025E net profit forecast by 22% on a comparable geographic basis, on the strong revenue performance, and solid asset quality delivery and guidance so far this year. If just focusing on this factor, we would see the current valuation as rightly reflecting c.EUR 3bn of average annual profits both this and ...
- Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
- Miguel Dias
Santander Bank Polska: no such thing as plug and play in M&A (downgrad...
We have downgraded Santander BP to HOLD (from Buy) and set our updated 12M price target (PT) at PLN 577.6/share. Our updated 12M PT includes an extra 10% discount on top of our base 12M PT, to reflect the share overhang (Banco Santander left with a 13% stake) and uncertainties over how smooth and fast the transition period might prove to be, at least from the current standpoint. In our view, the stock may trade at a discount until this is cleared up, which is unlikely to be announced until the n...
- Szabolcs Pal
Expensive but value-creating acquisition
We leave our recommendation at Neutral following Erste’s Polish acquisition, which was expensive, in our view, although they spent their extensive capital in a value-creating way. We roll over and raise our Jun-26 ex-div target price to EUR 75.6 from EUR 64.2, implying a 10.0% TR upside potential including a DPS of EUR 0.8 for 2025 over the TP period.
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Fehmi Ben Naamane
- Oddo Sustainability Team
ELIOR ELIOR GROUP SA
CLN CLARIANT AG
WTB WHITBREAD PLC
ZVTG ZAVAROVALNICA TRIGLAV D.D.
GLJ GRENKE AG
RBT ROBERTET SA
POS PORR AG
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
WIE WIENERBERGER AG
ROYAL VOPAK NV
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
SHOT SCANDIC HOTELS GROUP
HBH HORNBACH HOLDING AG & CO. KGAA
FNTN FREENET AG
MEL MELIA HOTELS INTERNATIONAL S.A.
NHH NH HOTEL GROUP SA
2CRSI 2CRSI SA
GRE GRENERGY RENOVABLES
IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC
MFEA MEDIASET NV
DSPW DOOSAN SKODA POWER A.S.
LOUP SOCIETE L.D.C.
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Fehmi Ben Naamane
- Oddo Sustainability Team
ELIOR ELIOR GROUP SA
CLN CLARIANT AG
WTB WHITBREAD PLC
ZVTG ZAVAROVALNICA TRIGLAV D.D.
GLJ GRENKE AG
RBT ROBERTET SA
POS PORR AG
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
WIE WIENERBERGER AG
ROYAL VOPAK NV
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
SHOT SCANDIC HOTELS GROUP
HBH HORNBACH HOLDING AG & CO. KGAA
FNTN FREENET AG
MEL MELIA HOTELS INTERNATIONAL S.A.
NHH NH HOTEL GROUP SA
2CRSI 2CRSI SA
GRE GRENERGY RENOVABLES
IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC
MFEA MEDIASET NV
DSPW DOOSAN SKODA POWER A.S.
LOUP SOCIETE L.D.C.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MBR PW; DSPW CP; CPS PW; CPS PW; PCO PW; ALE PW; APR PW; C...
HEADLINES: • Mo-BRUK: 1Q25 EBITDA 7% below our forecast, but a substantial 24% miss vs. the consensus NEGATIVE • Doosan Skoda Power: weak 1Q25 – EBITDA down 70% yoy NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 1Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 5% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: Liechtenstein court dismisses Zygmunt Solorz's lawsuit against his children POSITIVE • Pepco Group: 1H25 slightly below expectations on worsening Poundland; lfl improvement at Pepco; another EUR 234m impair...
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
ENA ENEA S.A.
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
R22 R22
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
VRC VERCOM SA
DSPW DOOSAN SKODA POWER A.S.
- Philip Hettich
- Szabolcs Pal
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