A director at H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB bought 1,700,000 shares at 166.391SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last t...
A strong start to 2024, and spring sales with solid gross margins, have boosted confidence in H&M’s near-term 10% EBIT margin target. We like the store-refurbishment acceleration too, supporting our view of it returning to store growth in 2025e. We reiterate our BUY, but have raised our target price to SEK200 (180) on higher forecasts.
>Higher gross margin more than offsets in-line sales and higher opex… - H&M’s Q1 2024 results were ahead of our and consensus estimates (EBITDA 9.4% above consensus and 7.8% above our estimates) due to stronger tailwinds from COGS (5.8% lower than estimated) and despite in-line sales in the quarter (0.6% above consensus and 0.6% below our estimates). The better performance from COGS fed through to the rest of the P&L, obviously with a positive leverage effect, le...
We consider this a positive report for H&M, including EBIT 53% above consensus, a reiterated 2024 EBIT margin target, and decent start to spring sales. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBIT to come up by 5%+ on the back of the Q1 report, and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.
>We are lowering our estimates after disappointing results in the last quarters, especially in Q4 2023, showing the challenges faced by the company… - We continue to think that H&M needs a significant change in its model in order not to lose market share, and that the results published over the last few quarters are testimony of the difficulty in achieving such transformation. The decline in sales in the last reported quarter, as well as the negative top line growth p...
We expect focus in the Q1 report to be on the start to spring sales and the gross margin recovery. Longer-term, we still expect a return to store growth following its entry into Brazil, and we will look for updates on this throughout 2024. We reiterate our BUY and SEK180 target price.
>P&L and trading update below, with Opex 3% above our estimates - H&M’s Q4 2023 results fell short of both our and consensus estimates, with gross profit in line (SEK 33,657m vs SEK 33,642m in our estimates), EBITDA of SEK 10,573m, i.e. SEK 598m or 5% below, EBIT of SEK 4,332m, i.e. SEK 1,078m or 20% below, and net profit of SEK 1,576m vs SEK 3,464m estimated, i.e. SEK 1,888m or 55% below. This underperformance vs our estimates resulted from higher Opex, higher D&A a...
The Q4 results marked a weak ending to 2023, and 2024 has started off soft in terms of sales growth. Although H&M expects its store network to be a net positive contributor to 2024 growth, we believe a turn in near-term sales is needed to build investor confidence. We still believe 2025 could mark the first year with a net addition, which is yet to be reflected in consensus. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK180 (190) on lower estimates.
We consider this a weak report for H&M, including weaker-than-expected Q4 results, weak current trading, higher-than-expected capex, and a new CEO. We expect c2–4% negative revisions to consensus 2024e adj. EBIT and believe a negative share price reaction is warranted. The weak current trading looks to have been well flagged in the market ahead of the report.
The ESG themes addressed during this year’s forum centred around the 3 “T”s: Transparency, with the implementation of the CSRD; Talent, a theme where the issues of attraction and retention are as relevant as ever; and Transition, with some companies in the process of adapting their business models to embrace sustainability-related topics. Our favorite ESG profiles are those of GEA Group, Intertek, Carbios, SPIE, Elis, UCB and, to a certain extent, Bekaert. - ...
Cette année, les thématiques ESG abordées lors du Forum se dessinent autour des 3 « T » : Transparence, avec la mise en œuvre de la CSRD, Talents : les enjeux d’attraction et de rétention restent prégnants ; Transition : un virage des modèles d’activité vers des thématiques de durabilité est engagé pour certains acteurs. Côté valeurs, nous apprécions le profil ESG de GEA Group, Intertek, Carbios, SPIE, Elis, UCB et dans une certaine mesure, Bekaert. - ...
>We are lowering our estimates after disappointing sales in Q4… - After the Q4 2023 sales report was published, we are fine-tuning all of our estimates, i.e. for the quarter, the full year and the coming years. This sales figure was below our estimates, as discussed in our note ‘Disappointing sales in Q4’ and, as a result, our estimates for the remainder of the P&L and for the coming years are slightly reduced. However, in this revision we are giving the company cred...
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