H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB: 1 director

A director at H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB bought 1,850,000 shares at 153.698SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last t...

September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

Valmet Oyj: 1 director

A director at Valmet Oyj bought 1,000 shares at 23.642EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Earnings growth needed in Q4

Following mixed Q3 results, we have tweaked our 2024–2026e clean EPS (c-1% on average). Q3 clean EBITA improved slightly YOY, but we believe a stronger improvement will be required in Q4 YOY to reach the 2024 guidance of flat clean EBITA YOY. We reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price.

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR42.00) - Earnings growth and buybacks

Since UPM had pre-released Q3 EBIT and provided new Q4 guidance, the Q3 report included no real surprises. Still, we are encouraged by UPM’s focus on continuously reducing fixed costs. Based on improved volumes in combination with better prices for pulp and biofuels, we are confident UPM will show impressive earnings growth. Based on reduced 2025–2027e capex, we also expect strong free cash flow, leaving the balance sheet overcapitalised, and paving the way for buybacks on top of compelling divi...

Pulp is down and Wood is up

Q3 in-line with PW

Stora acquires a Finnish sawmill company

The organic growth story continues

Small miss in Q3, growth case unchanged

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR42.00) - Still fit for growth and buybacks

Although we were surprised and disappointed by UPM’s 2024 profit warning, we remain confident that it will report strong earnings growth for 2025–2026. With incrementally higher profits from the new business in Uruguay and low 2025–2026e capex, we also expect strong free cash flow, leaving the balance sheet overcapitalised with 2025–2026e NIBD/EBITDA of 0.5–0.1x, paving the way for much-increased, value-accretive shareholder cash allocations. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to...

PW and Q3: Wood is up, pulp is down

Specialty Pharma & Vet services to drive growth

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - 2024 profit warning

We have cut our 2024–2026e clean EPS by 8% on average following Friday’s profit warning. Consensus was sceptical about the previous optimistic-looking guidance, and we expect questions to remain about the new guidance. We have cut our target price to EUR32 (35) but reiterate our BUY.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR35.00) - Orders and earnings raise forecasts

We have raised our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c4% on average mainly due to the recent EUR1bn+ mega pulp order set to be booked in Q4. We expect Q3 orders and clean EBITA to grow YOY. Our orders are c4% below post-Q2 consensus, but clean EBITA is c5% above. We have raised our target price to EUR35 (33) and reiterate our BUY.

Wood is up and Pulp is down

Q3 preview

Circio Holding (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Development continues, financing un...

We continue to believe Circio’s technology has significant potential and that the company will successfully secure a partnering deal. However, while we estimate it has secured a runway through H1 2025, the funding situation remains unclear to us, and we thus continue to have no recommendation or target price on Circio.

Betting big, as it should: reiterate BUY

Hennes & Mauritz (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Building momentum into 2025

With a scrapped 2024 margin ambition amid weaker than expected sales and a drag from external factors YTD, we believe investor focus is shifting to 2025 as the relaunch of its autumn collection and marketing efforts appear well received by customers, creating optimism for a favourable sales backdrop into the Christmas season and next year. We also remain hopeful for a return to store growth in 2025, supporting sales and profitability. We reiterate our BUY and SEK190 target price.