reports
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ageas: The Saga continues. ASM International: KKR reportedly interested in ASM PT. D'Ieteren: Belron €8.1bn debt financing at better rates than expected. Elia: Challenges ahead, CEO appointment necessary. Gimv: €150-250m bond issue by Gimv controlling anchor investor WorxInvest. PostNL: Preparation letter on future of Dutch mail market sent to Parliament. Vonovia: Good progress on disposals
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
Dynamic Top Pick List Update October 2024 – Adding NN Group
We maintain a defensive stance on the market for 2H24. The long anticipated expectations for interest rate cuts by central banks will finally come to pass. The election fever in the US is reaching boiling point and the conversations are becoming more polarised than before. Also corporate profit growth in Europe slows and the French elections have cast a negative spell. In Germany by-elections in the Eastern part showed a shift to extreme right and left that will make budget decisions even more ...
BEKB BEKAERT SA
ABN ABN AMRO BANK NV DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS
FAGR FAGRON SA
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
SOLB SOLVAY SA
COFB COFINIMMO SA
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SOF SOFINA SA
IBAB ION BEAM APPLICATIONS SA
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
KIN KINEPOLIS GROUP NV
NN NN GROUP N.V.
TINC TINC COMM. VA
FUR FUGRO NV
SYENS SYENSQO
- ING Helpdesk
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Francesca Ferragina
- Hans D’Haese
- Jason Kalamboussis
- Javier Campos Unda
- Marc Hesselink
- CFA
- Marc Zwartsenburg
- CEFA
- Maxime Stranart
- Quirijn Mulder
- Reg Watson
- CFA
- Stijn Demeester
- Thymen Rundberg
- Tijs Hollestelle
ING Benelux Favourites/ASM, ASR, D'Ieteren, EVS, Fugro, Randstad, SBM ...
We refresh our ING Benelux Favourites list. We still apply a fundamental bottom up approach in which we select stocks that provide the best (relative) upside within our Benelux coverage universe and these stocks need clear catalysts. Besides this, we screen our ING Benelux coverage universe on some key investment themes that are topical and which could affect earnings potential and thus a stock's share price performance: (1) interest rate/refinancing opportunity in a lower rates environment; (2)...
- David Vagman
- CFA
D'Ieteren/Digesting the deal, we see a nice entry point/BUY
The shares have underperformed >15% since the announcement of the family transaction and €4bn dividend, €74 per share. We think this is excessive. The shares imply that: (1) all shareholders price in the maximum 30% withholding tax despite a majority not paying it; and (2) the ‘remainco' discount is up from 30% to c.45%. Tax aside, post dividend, the ‘remainco' will trade at >50% discount. Post dividend, there is >70% upside to our new €196 target price, which factors in a 20% discount, up from ...
D`ieteren Group: 1 director
A director at D`ieteren Group bought 1,300 shares at 197.959EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 75/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
- Maxime Stranart
- Stijn Demeester
Recticel/Volumes growth back on the agenda/BUY
We reiterate our BUY and increase our target price from €15 to €16 following Recticel's 1H24 results, to reflect a lower WACC and broadly stable estimates. We remain convinced by the medium-to-long term potential of the Insulation market - this should provide Recticel with ample room to grow organically and, thanks to its net cash position, through M&A. We view future acquisitions as a key catalyst for the share price over the short term, as these would confirm the ambition of the group to mater...
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Maxime Stranart
Agfa-Gevaert/2Q24 EBIT beat, DP&C performing strongly/HOLD
Following Agfa-Gevaert's 2Q24 results we reiterate our HOLD and cut our target price from €1.6 to €1.2. We still struggle to see a clear and sustainable path for profitability and FCF generation in the short term, arguing that several restructuring initiatives must be successfully implemented before this can happen. We see the potential closing of the divestment of Offset Solutions as well as the continued growth of Zirfon as two key positives for the longer term. We believe all this is already ...
- Sharad Kumar S.P
Holdings Report - August 2024 KBCS Holdings Universe Up 0.5% Thanks To...
1M Performance - Absolute: During July'24 (1M period), the KBCS Holdings Universe posted a return of 0.5% which was mainly driven by multi-asset holdings (+1.7%) while single-asset holdings posted a negative return of -1.3%. The 3 top performers during the period were HAL Trust (+5.1%), Texaf (+2.9%), and The Infrastructure Company (TINC, +9.6%) while the 3 worst performers were Brederode (-2.8%), Solvac (-5.3%), and Whitestone Group (-7.2%). YTD Performance - Relative: On a YTD basis (as of A...
GBLB GROUPE BRUXELLES LAMBERT SA
HAL HAL TRUST
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SOF SOFINA SA
SOLV SOLVAC S.A.
GIMB GIMV NV
QFG QUEST FOR GROWTH
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
TUB FINANCIERE DE TUBIZE S.A.
HEIO HEINEKEN HOLDING N.V.
KBCA KBC ANCORA SCA
TEXF TEXAF
BREB BREDERODE S.A.
TINC TINC COMM. VA
ROCK WHITESTONE GROUP
- Michiel Declercq
D'Ieteren Shareholder shift & extraordinary dividend in focus after go...
D'Ieteren reported a good set of 1H24 results, with the adj. PBT (gs) up 6.4% to € 586m (kbcse: € 572m, css: € 546m), while FCF (gs) improved materially to € 540m (1H23: € 187m). The group also confirmed its outlook. More important was the shareholder reorganisation, with Nayarit to acquire 16.7% from SPDG. Secondly, D'Ieteren announced the proposal of an extraordinary dividend of € 74 per share. Buy and € 260 TP reiterated.
- ING Helpdesk
- Jacob Mekhael
- Michiel Declercq
- Wim Lewi
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ING Benelux Conference London: Aalberts, Arcadis, Azelis, Barco, Basic-Fit, Brunel International, DEME Group, Euronext, Fagron, Heijmans, Kinepolis, Lotus Bakeries, Melexis, Ontex, Randstad, Recticel, SBM Offshore, TKH Group, Van Lanschot Kempen Other company stories - OCI: Divestment of Methanol to Methanex for US$2.05bn, Staffing: US August temp volumes marginally better trend; NFP jobs miss
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
FAGR FAGRON SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
LOTB LOTUS BAKERIES NV
REC RECTICEL SA
HEIJM HEIJMANS N.V. CERT
VLK
ARCAD VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
AALB ARCADIS NV
OCI AALBERTS N.V.
BRNL OCI NV
ONTEX BRUNEL INTERNATIONAL N.V.
MELE ONTEX GROUP N.V.
TWEKA MELEXIS NV
KIN TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
BAR KINEPOLIS GROUP NV
AZE BARCO NV
DEME AZELIS GROUP NV
DEME GROUP NV
- ING Helpdesk
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
Dynamic Top Pick List Update September 2024 –Cofinimmo & Kinepolis in;...
In this September update of our Dynamic Top Pick List we make 4 changes. •We include Cofinimmo in our Dynamic Top Pick List after our recent upgrade from Accumulate to Buy. We expect the name to outperform in a decreasing interest rate environment given its relatively high leverage and cheap valuation. We also believe the risk of a dilutive equity raise eased when the FY24 capex decreased from € 320m to € 250m. The management stays disciplined in its capex program and continues to focus on asse...
BEKB BEKAERT SA
ABN ABN AMRO BANK NV DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS
FAGR FAGRON SA
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
SOLB SOLVAY SA
COFB COFINIMMO SA
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SOF SOFINA SA
VAN VAN DE VELDE S.A.
IBAB ION BEAM APPLICATIONS SA
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
KIN KINEPOLIS GROUP NV
TINC TINC COMM. VA
FUR FUGRO NV
SYENS SYENSQO
- ING Helpdesk
- Jacob Mekhael
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Recticel Model update – Structural growth drivers but no ST support fr...
We have finetuned our earnings model post the 1H24 results release, with adjusted EBITDA forecasts for FY24-26 lowered by between 2% and 5%, reflecting the competitive landscape (mainly in the Boards business). Despite the reduced forecasts, we still expect Recticel to grow adjusted EBITDA by c. 31% in FY24 and by 19% in FY25, benefiting from savings initiatives and the Rex integration & growth. Building markets are bottoming out, but we do not expect meaningful improvement in momentum until 202...
- Wim Hoste
Recticel Feedback conference call
Below are the highlights from the 1H results conference call. On the back of double digit underlying volume growth, 1H Adj EBITDA jumped by 38% to € 25.1m, which was roughly in line with our forecast and c 3m above consensus. Although Recticel expects to have seen the market bottom in Western Europe whilst noting an improvement in the UK, FY guidance of around € 50m adjusted EBITDA is slightly below our and consensus forecasts of respectively € 52m and € 54m. Although we do believe in the longer...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ackermans & van Haaren: Indian participation casts shadow over excellent result of core segments. ASML: Spotlight on export restrictions again. Basic-Fit: Dutch parliament persists in plans to raise VAT for oa Sports to 21%. CFE: Earnings quality improved in challenging markets. Eurocommercial Properties: Better numbers, guidance moved toward the higher end of the range. OCI: IFCO sale successfully closed, cash return unlocked Recticel: Solid 1H24 beat, FY guidance may disappoint. SIF Grou...
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