Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on Aker BP highlighting our growing concerns of sharp cuts to consensus FCF, with capex assumptions beyond 2026 looking far too low to us – we are ~40% below consensus on 2027–2030e FCF. As well as BW Energy’s Q1 trading update revealing net production just below our estimate, it announced a sale & leaseback agreement, which we see as marginally accretive to our NAV. In other news, we believe the Tyra ramp-up will be in focus in BlueNord’s Q1 results, due next week

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Q1 in line with our expectations

Q1 is low season for NCC, but we believe the EBIT miss versus Infront consensus was likely due to some consensus participants overlooking the early Easter effect. With the Q1 results broadly in line with our estimates, we have made only minor forecast changes, and reiterate our BUY and SEK150 target price.

Miss in seasonally slow quarter

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK290.00) - Capex concerns looming

While investor concerns appear tilted towards a near-term production decline, we are increasingly concerned that consensus FCF will face meaningful negative revisions, as capex assumptions beyond 2026 look far too low. For 2027–2030, our FCF estimates are ~40% below consensus. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK290 (325) on a lower fair P/NAV.

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.40) - Q1 misses on EBIT and KPIs

EBIT of EUR-8m was below our estimate and Vara consensus, and unit sales missed too. The inventory of unsold completed homes for sale continued to increase. The company states it will continue to focus on its capital releases, with sale of its stake in the Tripla shopping mall and reducing unsold inventory as the major moving parts. However, YIT’s markets are weak and its debt remains elevated. We reiterate our SELL and EUR1.4 target price, while we believe new equity might be also needed.

Rebound will take a few years

Minor changes to underlying estimates. Sold units lagging peers. Downside risk to consensus in 2025/2026.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi released their Q1 results. In short: Equinor reported on the strong side, with a solid FCF beat fuelled by a working capital tailwind. Aker BP had a solid Q1 all around, while there was limited new news on Johan Sverdrup. For Vår Energi, with the results in line with our expectations, we believe investor focus remains on the Jotun FPSO sail-away.

Aker BP ASA - December 2023 (LTM): Peer Snapshot

Compares key performance metrics against industry peers.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 26/04/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Important step to unlock Sicily – The Italian ministry has informed ADX that it will be granted the d 363C.R-.AX gas exploration permit in the Sicily Channel. In addition, the Regional Administrative Court of Rome has annulled the Plan for the Sustainable Energy Transition of Eligible Areas that prevented the oil redevelopment, appraisal and exploration activities on the licence. ...

Improving market - BUY the leader

EBIT down 4-1%. Uptick in sold units to continue in Q2'24e. Housing market rebound in the making - BUY

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/04/2024

Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...

Aker BP : Q1 results beat expectations, pressure on cash and few catal...

>Operating profit 4% higher than expected - Aker BP released its Q1 2024 results showing revenues fully in line with expectations but EBITDA and EBIT 4% higher than expected at $ 2.8bn (-17.7% q-o-q) and € 2.2bn (+1.9% q-o-q), respectively. Net profit was 13% higher than expected at $ 531m, boosted by a tax rate of 75% vs 92% in Q4. CFFO was virtually flat at $ 1.45bn and FCF was down -26% to $ 339m.Good operating performance but upcoming maintenance st...

Aker BP : Résultats T1 supérieurs aux attentes, pression sur le cash e...

>Un résultat opérationnel 4% supérieur aux attentes - Aker BP a publié ses résultats du T1 2024 avec des revenus parfaitement en ligne mais un EBITDA et EBIT 4% supérieurs aux attentes à respectivement 2.8 Md$ (-17.7% QoQ) et 2.2 Md$ (+1.9% QoQ). Le résultat net ressort 13% supérieur aux attentes à 531 M$ bénéficiant d’un taux d’impôts à 75% vs 92% au T4. Le CFFO est quasi stable à 1.45 Md$ et le FCF est en baisse de 26% à 339 M$.Une bonne performance op...

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK9.50) - No KPI recovery in Q1

As expected, Bonava reported close to zero EBIT and EPS. Moreover, the leading KPIs for starts and sales were weaker than expected, and we have cut our 2026e EPS. We continue to expect close to zero EPS in 2024–2026e, but with a P/B of c0.4x and refinancing in place with the Q1 equity issue, we believe the negatives are reflected in the share price. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK9.5 (8.5).

JM AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at JM AB bought/maiden bought 1,550 shares at between 183.170SEK and 184.000SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ov...

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - Q1 slightly on the soft side

Q1 EBITDA was c2% below consensus, with a somewhat soft mix, as Extrusions and Aluminium Metal, the two largest segments, were below forecasts. We have increased our 2024e EPS by 7% on the USD2,600/t spot aluminium price, and 2025–2026e by 2% on the Q1 results. We are 30% below consensus 2025e EBITDA; we do not see enough demand to raise aluminium prices above the marginal producer’s cost, as the price appreciation in recent weeks suggests. We still expect aluminium prices to decline with lower ...

Demand growing faster than supply - BUY

Q1'24 EBITDA of NOK 5.4bn, '24e-'26e EBIT up 2-3% post report. Market tightening rapidly in Q1 - demand up 5%, supply up 3%. Reiterate BUY — TP NOK 75.