Nordic Shorts: screening with HUSQ & EMBRAC highlighted

Nordic Shorts update:HUSQ & EMBRAC highlighted

Hurt by the usual suspects

Q1: Operating PTP NOK 173m vs. cons NOK 230m. Our equity case is broadly unchanged. BUY, TP NOK 155.

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK100.00) - Streak of consensus misses continue...

EBIT missed consensus for the ninth consecutive quarter in Q1. While the results were good relative to peers, we remain concerned about elevated consensus expectations and the high market valuation. We continue to see downside risk to consensus, and reiterate our SELL and NOK100 target price.

Below expectations driven by the Betonmast units

NCC AB: 1 director

A director at NCC AB bought 430,237 shares at 131.880SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Veidekke (Buy, TP: NOK125.00) - Low-season beat, and raised EPS

Veidekke avoided the usual Q1 seasonal loss, reporting EBIT of zero, beating our estimate and Infront consensus. Order intake was also strong, and broadly in line with expectations. Following the results, we have increased our 2024–2026e revenue by c2% and EBIT by c3.5–4%, but raised our EPS by c8–9% after also increasing our financial income estimates. In turn, we have raised our target price to NOK125 (120), and upgraded Veidekke to BUY (HOLD).

Operational quality not reflected in the share

Q1: PTP NOK 25m vs. consensus NOK -14m. Loss-making revenue in the backlog the lowest in 9 years. DPS = EPS = 8-9% dividend yield. BUY.

Skanska (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Q1 miss, but underlying solid

Q1 EBIT missed Infront consensus and our forecast, mainly due to a couple of one-off charges. Order intake was broadly as we expected, but sales and starts in Residential Development (RD) beat our forecasts despite Boklok still struggling with profitability. However, given market expectations of falling interest rates, we expect divestments of commercial assets to increase. We have cut our 2024e EPS by c5% on the Q1 writedowns, but raised our 2024–2026e EPS on an improved residential outlook. Wi...

In line adjusted for EO

Better than expected and improvement y-o-y

Peab (Sell, TP: SEK60.00) - Q1 beat, but still needs to divest

Despite the low season, Q1 beat our estimates, driven by a commercial asset sale in Property Development (PD), while the deviations to our forecasts were less for the other segments. However, with a high level of capital employed in PD and an IFRS net debt/EBIT of c8x, we believe more focus is needed on capital releases and deleveraging. We have raised our 2024e EPS by c16% (transaction-driven) on the strong Q1, but marginally revised 2025–2026e. We reiterate our SELL on the still-high leverage ...

Record-high order intake

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Q1 in line with our expectations

Q1 is low season for NCC, but we believe the EBIT miss versus Infront consensus was likely due to some consensus participants overlooking the early Easter effect. With the Q1 results broadly in line with our estimates, we have made only minor forecast changes, and reiterate our BUY and SEK150 target price.

Miss in seasonally slow quarter

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.40) - Q1 misses on EBIT and KPIs

EBIT of EUR-8m was below our estimate and Vara consensus, and unit sales missed too. The inventory of unsold completed homes for sale continued to increase. The company states it will continue to focus on its capital releases, with sale of its stake in the Tripla shopping mall and reducing unsold inventory as the major moving parts. However, YIT’s markets are weak and its debt remains elevated. We reiterate our SELL and EUR1.4 target price, while we believe new equity might be also needed.

Rebound will take a few years

Minor changes to underlying estimates. Sold units lagging peers. Downside risk to consensus in 2025/2026.

Improving market - BUY the leader

EBIT down 4-1%. Uptick in sold units to continue in Q2'24e. Housing market rebound in the making - BUY

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK9.50) - No KPI recovery in Q1

As expected, Bonava reported close to zero EBIT and EPS. Moreover, the leading KPIs for starts and sales were weaker than expected, and we have cut our 2026e EPS. We continue to expect close to zero EPS in 2024–2026e, but with a P/B of c0.4x and refinancing in place with the Q1 equity issue, we believe the negatives are reflected in the share price. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK9.5 (8.5).

JM AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at JM AB bought/maiden bought 1,550 shares at between 183.170SEK and 184.000SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ov...

All starts in the Baltics and Germany