reports
- Jacob Mekhael
- Livio Luyten
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- ING Helpdesk
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Thomas Vranken
UCB FIRST LOOK: Fintepla scores Phase 3 win in third epileptic indicat...
UCB announced positive Phase 3 results for Fintepla in treating CDKL5 deficiency disorder (CDD), a rare and severe early-onset epileptic condition with limited treatment options. The randomized, placebo-controlled study in patients aged 1–35 met its primary and secondary endpoints, showing a significant reduction in countable motor seizures and a favourable safety profile. UCB plans to announce the full dataset at an upcoming conference and seek regulatory approval promptly. This marks Fintepla'...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
UCB - Bimzelx Consensus for 2025 Too Low
We are 28% above cons. US Bimzelx sales for H125 with Bimzelx sales momentum being the most important factor for the UCB investment thesis. Unlike the early days for US obesity, this is one of the most complex dynamics we have contended with when forecasting sales. There are multiple unknowns that we have sought to model (net price per scrip, net avg. price by indication, 2024 volume, volume growth by payer & incremental discounts to unlock that volume growth). As a result of our analysis, we in...
- Hans D’Haese
- Jason Kalamboussis
Ackermans & van Haaren/Valuation update after strong share price run/H...
We downgrade our recommendation for Ackermans & van Haaren (AvH) from Buy to HOLD. The share price has had a strong run, pricing in the higher valuation of the banks, while the fair value for all other segments within AvH's portfolio on balance have remained unchanged. Therefore, given the 10% forecast total return to the current share price, we fail to see a short term catalyst to push the valuation higher and the stock is currently trading at a FY25F P/E of 13.9x, only slightly below the 10-ye...
- Guy Sips
- Kristof Samoy
- Livio Luyten
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- ING Helpdesk
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Lewi
Dollar Weakness The impact on our Benelux Coverage
In general, a weaker USD has a negative impact on Benelux stocks, particularly for companies with significant exports to the US. In this note we selected a list of companies with high US export exposure and we examine the potential impact on FY25 earninings. On top of the weak dollar, rising trade tensions or the introduction of tariffs further harm Benelux exporters. As the dollar depreciates against the euro, European goods become costlier for American consumers. At the same time, revenues ear...
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
SOLB SOLVAY SA
UCB UCB S.A.
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SIP SIPEF GROUP
SOF SOFINA SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
ROYAL VOPAK NV
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
MELE MELEXIS NV
KIN KINEPOLIS GROUP NV
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
ARGX ARGEN-X SE
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
ADYEN ADYEN NV
BAR BARCO NV
FUR FUGRO NV
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
AGN AEGON N.V.
SYENS SYENSQO
- Thomas Vranken
UCB FIRST LOOK: Expansion of US biologics manufacturing capacity
UCB has announced plans to build a new state-of-the-art biologics manufacturing facility in the US, which today accounts for 55% of its revenues. The investment, estimated at $ 2bn over 6–7 years, is expected to generate a $ 5bn economic impact, including 300 permanent and > 500 construction jobs. This move aligns UCB with other major pharma players expanding US operations and may help mitigate risks from potential US import tariffs on pharmaceuticals. Additionally, UCB will strengthen its partn...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Lewi
- Thomas Vranken
UCB FIRS LOOK: Add'l Phase 3 data support dapirolizumab's potential in...
UCB and Biogen presented additional Phase 3 data showing that dapirolizumab pegol (DZP, anti-CD40L) significantly improves fatigue and disease activity in patients with moderate-to-severe systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Beyond the positive topline readout in Nov '24, DZP showed superior results over standard care in multiple fatigue and disease remission measures. Accumulate/€214 TP confirmed.
- Thomas Vranken
UCB 3-year PsA and axSpA data at EULAR 2025 confirm Bimzelx' efficacy
At EULAR 2025, UCB presented three-year data for Bimzelx, demonstrating sustained efficacy and inflammation control in psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). In PsA, both biologic-naïve (53.2%) and TNFa-refractory patients (55.2%) maintained strong ACR50 responses and showed high rates of joint and skin symptom resolution. In axSpA, patients with both radiographic and non-radiographic forms sustained ASAS40 responses and low disease activity. These results highlight Bimze...
- Jacob Mekhael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Thomas Vranken
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
UCB - “Bim’ Me Up Scotty” – INITIATION (BUY, TP EUR215, 54pgs)
We initiate with a BUY due to our proprietary Contribution Analysis showing that the UCB EBITDA margin should explode by ~1500bps to ~45% by 2030. This leaves us 23% above consensus EBITDA. Interestingly, Cimzia is the biggest driver of our 5% above cons. 2030 sales as a result of our analysis showing that ~80% of TRx’s are women & this cohort is stable. We show that Bimzelx pricing could fall as much as 30% by 2030 due to rebates & mix but we are still in-line with consensus. There are still ma...
- Livio Luyten
Holdings Report May 2025 KBCS Holdings Universe Returns 2.2% During Ma...
1M Performance - Absolute: During May'25 (1M period), the KBCS Holdings Universe posted a return of +2.2% which was mainly driven by multi-asset holdings (+2.6%) while single-asset holdings posted a smaller return of +1.2%. The 3 top performers during the period were Gimv (+12.1%), KBC Ancora (+11.1%) and Ackermans & van Haaren (+4.1%) while the 3 worst performers were Solvac (-2.8%), Groupe Bruxelles Lambert (-0.8%) and Heineken Holding (-0.3%). YTD Performance - Relative: On a YTD basis (as o...
GBLB GROUPE BRUXELLES LAMBERT SA
HAL HAL TRUST
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SOF SOFINA SA
SOLV SOLVAC S.A.
GIMB GIMV NV
QFG QUEST FOR GROWTH
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
TUB FINANCIERE DE TUBIZE S.A.
HEIO HEINEKEN HOLDING N.V.
KBCA KBC ANCORA SCA
TEXF TEXAF
BREB BREDERODE S.A.
TINC TINC COMM. VA
EXO EXOR N.V.
ROCK WHITESTONE GROUP
- Guy Sips
- Kristof Samoy
- Livio Luyten
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
Benelux Local Champions Feedback document
Below our feedback notes written at the occasion of our annual Benelux Local Champions Conference that took place on 27 May 2025 at our historic building at Grand Place Brussels. This event offered the possibility to have one-on-one meetings and/or small group meetings with the following Benelux companies and their top management & IR: ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN | AHOLD DELHAIZE | AKZONOBEL | ARCADIS | AZELIS | CORBION | GBL | LOTUS BAKERIES | MELEXIS | PROXIMUS | SOFINA | UMICORE
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Aedifica and Cofinimmo: Agreement reached to create Europe's leading Healthcare REIT. bpost: CMD press release; #Reshape 2029. D'Ieteren: Belgian new car registrations down 11.7% in May, VW down 13.5% Fugro: Meeting with CEO & IR; 2Q25 also has its challenges. UCB: Peer Moonlake held takeover talks with US Merck, FT reports
Ackermans & Van Haaren: 2 directors
Two Directors at Ackermans & Van Haaren sold/sold after exercising options 3,500 shares at between 231.240EUR and 232.000EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 84/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by...
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