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Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: CTPNV NA; GE Macro; RBI AV; AIRA LI; TPEIR GA; ALK MS; ETE...

HEADLINES: • CTP: better late than never (upgraded to BUY) • Georgia macro: protests in Tbilisi • Raiffeisen Bank International: posts solid 1Q24, keeps 2024E guidance (but only on ex. Russia and Belarus basis), facing huge pressure to address Russia and Belarus exposures from officials • Air Astana Group: 1Q24 – 15% ASK growth, RASK down slightly yoy, but CASK stable • Piraeus Financial Holdings: 1Q24 highlights NEUTRAL • Alkaloid: 1Q24 numbers a strong start to the year POSITIVE • National Ban...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: SPL PW; PEO PW; PCF PW; EBS AV; OMV AV; BOROUGE UH; SNP RO...

HEADLINES: • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24 results – 19%+ headline ROE affected only slightly by FX mortgage saga costs • Bank Pekao: 1Q24 results in line with market's expectations NEUTRAL • PCF Group: 4Q23 headlines hit heavily by write-offs, but a more limited EBITDA loss than we had expected NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • OMV: 1Q24 results – chemicals stronger than expected NEUTRAL • Borouge: 1Q24 results – better than expected POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • Garan...

Gabor Bukta ... (+2)
  • Gabor Bukta
  • Szabolcs Pal

CEE Banks – Great opportunities with different risk profiles

The CEE region is expected to deliver a moderate rebound of GDP growth in 2024,following the preceding year’s weak growth, fuelling expectations of sustainable profits inthe banking sector. Inflation is seen to be twin faced in our region, similar to most of the coreeconomies. Even with a diminished potential for much intra-year improvement of the inflationpath in 2024, this inflation provides several CEE central banks more room to cut policy ratesthis year. Lower interest rates are expected to ...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: KSPI LI; KRU PW; TUPRS TI; TL Banks; SIPCHEM AB; JMT PL; E...

HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: 1Q24 highlights Kruk: buys more portfolios in Italy • Tupras: launches USD 256m propylene investment NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: coverage UNDER REVIEW • Sipchem: 1Q24E results preview (due on 25 April) NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: 1Q24E results preview – 11% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 April, before the open) • Erste Bank: 1Q24E preview (due on 30 April) • BRD-GSG: 1Q24E preview (due on 2 May) NEUTRAL • PKO BP: 1Q24E preview (due on 9 May) • Banca Transilvania: 1Q24E...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: APR PW; CPS PW; GPW PW; PCO PW; DAT PW; CEZ CP

HEADLINES: • Auto Partner: 4Q23 EBITDA misses our forecast by 4%, but the consensus by 12% NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 4Q23 results review – adjusted EBITDA down 17% yoy, 4% below the consensus NEGATIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 4Q23 bottom-line beat lacking some quality NEUTRAL • Pepco Group: lfl worsens to -2.9% in 2Q24; new CEO appointed NEGATIVE • DataWalk: actual 4Q23 numbers fully in line with the preliminaries; strong 1Q24 sales funnel POSITIVE • CEZ: Parliament formally drops Lex CEZ 2.0 N...

CEZ, a.s.: Update following change in outlook to negative

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its ownership by the Czech government, offset by its risks associated with a large investment programme.

Baptiste Lebacq
  • Baptiste Lebacq

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/05/2024

Several themes are set to drive the 2024 proxy season, among them the change of voting policy of ISS and a tipping point for climate resolutions. It will also be the last one before the first CSRD reports. Its long-term impact on Boards could also be underestimated. A wave of appointments of specialized sustainability profiles would upset their balance. We identify the AGMs likely to be play the most decisive role for the companies in the medium term: Alstom, Teleperformance, Worldlin...

Baptiste Lebacq ... (+2)
  • Baptiste Lebacq
  • Emmanuel Matot

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 05/04/2024

Plusieurs éléments animeront les assemblées générales 2024 : changement de politique de vote d’ISS, résolutions climat à un tournant… alors que cette saison est la dernière avant les premiers rapports CSRD. Celle-ci pourrait d’ailleurs avoir un impact long terme sous-estimé sur les conseils. Une vague de nominations de profils spécialisés en durabilité bouleverserait leurs équilibres. Nous identifions les AG les plus déterminantes pour la gouvernance des sociétés à moyen terme : Alsto...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+2)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri

ODDO : It really is memory that is saving the semiconductors market

>Global sales for February 2024 up +16.4% y-o-y vs +15.5% in January - Worldwide semiconductor sales in February 2024 were published by the WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics), with the usual one-month lag. On a three-month moving average, sales came to $ 43.6bn, slightly ahead of our forecast of $ 43.2bn. This represents a sequential decline of 3% (usual seasonal effect in February), but a fresh improvement in full-year growth to +16.4%, after +15.5% in Janu...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+2)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri

ODDO : C’est vraiment la mémoire qui sauve le marché des semiconducteu...

>Ventes mondiales de février 2024 à +16.4% yoy vs +15.5% en janvier - Les ventes mondiales de semiconducteurs de février 2024 viennent d’être publiés par le WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics), avec comme toujours, un mois de décalage. En données lissées (moyenne 3 mois), elles ressortent à 43.6 Md$, légèrement au-dessus de notre prévision de 43.2 Md$. Il s’agit d’une baisse en séquentiel de 3% (saisonnalité normale de février), mais d’une nouvelle améliorati...

Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: mixed market performances in March

EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...

BRE MBANK SA
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ALK ALKALOID AD SKOPJE
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
CTPNV KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
ONE CTP NV
GPP ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
AROBS GRUPA PRACUJ DA
2381 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
9526 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
4071 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
H2O ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
7203 HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
AQ ELM CO
AIRA AQUILA PART PROD COM
AIR ASTANA JSC
Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: INPST NA; ACP PW; ECH PW; EXAE GA; LPP PW; KRU PW; PZU PW;...

HEADLINES: • InPost: 4Q23 strong, as expected; neutral FY24E guidance; volume acceleration in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: 4Q23 review – net profit up 10% yoy, in line with preliminaries; strong 2024 backlog recorded POSITIVE • Echo Investment: 4Q23 – residential good, offices bad NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • LPP: key takeaways from the conference call on the exit from Russia, 2.0 POSITIVE • Kruk: 2023 net profit DPS proposal of PLN 18, in line with our expectations N...

Research Team
  • Research Team
CEZ CEZ AS
LPP LPP S.A. ... (+10)

WOOD Daily: TOASO TI; LPP PW; ASELS TI; HU Macro; LOGO TI; WPS LN; WPL...

HEADLINES: • Tofas: fortune favours the bold (stays BUY) • LPP: 4Q23 in line with prelims; FY24E guidance maintained; stellar rollout plans NEUTRAL • Aselsan: strong pre-IAS29 4Q23 results, bullish FY24E guidance POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MNB turns cautious, with a slower pace of rate cuts • Logo Yazilim: weak 4Q23 results, but the details matter NEGATIVE • Eurowag: takeaways from the 2H23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Ten Square G...

Moody's affirms CEZ's Baa1 rating; outlook changed to negative

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today affirmed the Baa1/(P)Baa1 senior unsecured debt/senior unsecured MTN program ratings of CEZ, a.s. (CEZ) and the baa2 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA). At the same time, Moody's has changed the outlook to negative from stable. Today's rating action follows the co...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: TEN PW; WPL PW; CZG CP; FP RO; PKO PW; CEZ CP; EL RO; EME ...

HEADLINES: • Ten Square Games: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA 8% above our forecast, but trading update disappoints NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q23 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 3% yoy, in line with the consensus POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group SE: weak 4Q23 results, but bullish FY24E guidance NEGATIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: proposes RON 0.06 DPS (11.8% dividend yield) POSITIVE • PKO BP: new acting CEO and two new board members appointed; more to come; but CRO Mazur stays • CEZ: starts divestment of Polis...

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill
Research Team
  • Research Team
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS ... (+8)

WOOD Daily: TR macro, HU macro, ASELS TI, DNP PW, BFT PW, 11B PW, CEZ ...

HEADLINES: • Türkiye macro: MPC surprises with a 500bp hike • Hungary macro: Hungary ends the cap on bank deposits • Aselsan: new USD 0.6bn contract • Dino: 8-10% EBITDA miss in 4Q23 - qoq sales erosion • Benefit Systems: conference call takeaways - solid 2024E outlook, Türkiye promising, churn-related risks from the Czech Republic should not materialise in Poland • 11 bit studios: Indika release date set for 8 May • CEZ: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Jahez: conference call takeaways •...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: AIRA LI; ELM AB; PZU PW; CEZ CP; BFT PW; TKNSA TI; CAI AV;...

HEADLINES: • Air Astana Group: a cash-accretive airline from the heart of Eurasia (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Elm: still a digital champion (stays HOLD) • PZU: reports solid 4Q23; high DPS potential POSITIVE • CEZ: misses on 4Q23 net profit, tepid 2024E guidance NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: strong 4Q23 beats expectations, but company trims 2024E guidance for card additions abroad NEUTRAL • Teknosa: mixed results in 4Q23 NEGATIVE • CA Immo: 4Q23 – all about the disposals POSITIVE • Brisa: 4Q2...

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