HEADLINES: • Raiffeisen Bank International: 1Q25 results largely in line NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: 1Q25 results NEUTRAL • Enea: preliminary 1Q25 EBITDA 13% above our expectations, driven by strong Supply; only 8% of 2025E capex plan realisation POSITIVE • Titan America: soft 1Q25 results, guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • Romania macro: reflections on the resignation of PM Ciolacu • Brisa: takeaways from the 1Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: earnings call takeaways - targeting 2025E revenu...
EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
HEADLINES: • Theon International: 1Q25 trading update – strong execution, rich options POSITIVE • Kruk: 1Q25 results, beat driven by Wonga, debt purchased segment in line, but slowing growth dynamics NEUTRAL • Siauliu Bankas: rather weak 1Q25, but maintained outlook should provide some support NEGATIVE • Medicover: 1Q25 beat on admin costs and other financial income POSITIVE • Otokar: 1Q25 results – continuing losses on the operating and bottom lines • Tofas: weak set of results in 1Q25, as anti...
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: weak set of results in 1Q25 NEGATIVE • Akbank: 1Q25 highlights – management cautious on margin, but positive on fees • Yapi Kredi: 1Q25 highlights, before the call – beat on NII and fees (evolved better than the guidance) • Solutions by STC: weak 1Q25 financial results, disappointing revenue growth NEGATIVE • Poland macro: April data paint an encouraging picture • PCF Group: PLN 173m write-offs to hit the 2024 results, related mostly to Bifrost NEGATIVE • Richter: positive ...
HEADLINES: • DO & CO: the art of the meal (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Diagnostyka: strong 4Q24, in line with the prelims NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: 1Q25 a little below 1Q25E expectations, but valuation (1Q25 P/BV at 1.2x) still very low NEUTRAL • MONETA Money Bank: 1Q25 results almost in line with expectations, ROE of 18% fully priced in by 1Q25 P/BV of 2.2x NEUTRAL • Metlen Energy & Metals: 1Q25 sales +31% yoy, to EUR 1.5bn, in line NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: strategy update, expands pipeline to...
HEADLINES: • Mo-BRUK: 4Q24 results miss expectations, on jumping SG&A costs NEGATIVE • Orange Polska: 1Q25 results – EBITDAaL up 3% yoy, in line with the consensus; 2025E guidance reiterated NEUTRAL • Kety: 1Q25 results and new strategy presentation call takeaways NEUTRAL • EMEA airlines: 1Q25 traffic; demand concerns vs. cheaper USD and oil • CEZ: ANO promising privatisation and lower fees NEGATIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: sells Chilean RES for USD 815m (EUR 710m) POSITIVE • Polish banks: Trea...
A director at Metlen Energy & Metals S.A sold 13,356 shares at 42.000EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 92/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...
Outperformer on all ends… – Titan has emerged as an all-around outperformer in recent years, leading its global peer group in EBITDA growth (28% 3Y CAGR), and ranking among the top performers in terms of share price (>150% 2Y return). Its strategic presence in regions with strong underlying fundamentals has positioned Titan among the few players to achieve volume growth since 2022, while disciplined cost control and high-return capex have driven a sector-leading 7pps margin expansion. Despite i...
Outperformer on all ends… – Titan has emerged as an all-around outperformer in recent years, leading its global peer group in EBITDA growth (28% 3Y CAGR), and ranking among the top performers in terms of share price (>150% 2Y return). Its strategic presence in regions with strong underlying fundamentals has positioned Titan among the few players to achieve volume growth since 2022, while disciplined cost control and high-return capex have driven a sector-leading 7pps margin expansion. Despite i...
HEADLINES: • Titan Cement: cementing its leadership (BUY - transfer of coverage) • 11 bit studios: 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA above our expectations, headlines hit by substantial write-offs POSITIVE • PGE: full 4Q24 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Tauron: full 4Q24 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: 1Q25 sales up 39% yoy, to PLN 22.1m POSITIVE • OPAP: Greek gaming market up by a strong 15% yoy in 2M25 POSITIVE • Kazatomprom: signs supply agreement with CE...
We transfer coverage of Titan Cement, with a BUY rating and a price target (PT) of EUR 50.0/share, which implies 31% upside from current levels. We like the company for its market-leading positions, and sustainable capital allocation policy, which have helped Titan to more than double its top line the last ten years. We expect the USA and Greece to be the main revenue drivers in the next three years, on the back of structural demand growth for cement products. Despite a 45% rally in the shares o...
Capital Markets Day in April to set the tone… – Following another year of sequentially improved results, with FY’24 EBITDA reaching €1.08bn (+8% yoy), 2025 looks poised to be a pivotal year for Metlen, with major announcements expected at the CMD on 28th April, ahead of its planned LSE listing in early Q3’25. During the event, mgmt will unveil the updated 2025-2028 strategy and outline the organic drivers that will lead to the ambitious €2bn EBITDA implied target by 2028 (CAGR: 17%). The above, ...
Capital Markets Day in April to set the tone… – Following another year of sequentially improved results, with FY’24 EBITDA reaching €1.08bn (+8% yoy), 2025 looks poised to be a pivotal year for Metlen, with major announcements expected at the CMD on 28th April, ahead of its planned LSE listing in early Q3’25. During the event, mgmt will unveil the updated 2025-2028 strategy and outline the organic drivers that will lead to the ambitious €2bn EBITDA implied target by 2028 (CAGR: 17%). The above, ...
EME Equity Market – February 2025 Poland outperforms, again; Türkiye declines. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.1% in EUR terms and 2.9% mom in USD terms in February. The Polish WIG20 was, once again, the best performer, adding 7.3% mom in February; followed by the Czech PX Index (+6.1% mom); while Greece (+3.8% mom), Hungary (+3.5% mom) and Romania (+3.0% mom) all reported rather similar performances. The Turkish ISE30 was the worst performer, declining 4.5% mom.
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: knocked out, beat down, black and blue (stays BUY) • Graphisoft Park: 4Q24 results, and another strong year • MOL: 4Q24 results below expectations, posts a net loss NEGATIVE • NLB Group: bottom-line miss in 4Q24, but equity story remains intact NEUTRAL • Metlen Energy & Metals: 2024 EBITDA +7%, to EUR 1.1bn, as expected NEUTRAL • Akcansa: proposed dividend almost in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • Piraeus Financial Holdings: 4Q24E preview (due on 24 February) NEUTRAL • Gr...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 4Q24 headline profit a touch below forecasts, due to the accelerated recognition of the incentive plan POSITIVE • Georgia macro: insights on a Ukraine deal spillover to Georgia • BIM: Competition Authority imposes administrative fine of TRY 1,296m NEGATIVE • OPAP: Greek gaming market +6% yoy in December and 11% in 2024 POSITIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: reaches 11-year bauxite supply/alumina offtake agreement with Rio Tinto POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: announces ten...
HEADLINES: • MOL: there’s gain in the mundane (stays BUY) • Tofas: very weak set of results in 4Q24 NEGATIVE • Orange Polska: 4Q24 – EBITDAaL up 7% yoy, 6% above the consensus; 2025E guidance in line with expectations POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 4Q24 results beat expectations POSITIVE • TBC Bank: 4Q24 results and conference call • Isbank: 4Q24 results and 2025E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • Medicover: takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call • 11 bit studios: delays release of The Alters NEGATIVE • ...
HEADLINES: • CCC: preliminary 4Q24 EBITDA beats our and the market's expectations by c.20% POSITIVE • ADNOC Distribution: 4Q24 results and dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Romania macro: update on the political and fiscal situation • Poland macro: PM Tusk signals shift of policy focus • Metlen Energy & Metals: Canadian Fairfax officially raises stake to 6.4%, as expected NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: January sales growth at 9% yoy NEUTRAL • Budimex: 4Q24E preview – strong gross margin, but headlines down, as...
EME Equity Market – January 2025 The markets entered 2025 on the right foot. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 7.7% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in January. The Polish WIG20 was the best performer (+12.7% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX and Czech PX indices (+8.9% mom and +6.2% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). There was also a very solid performance from the Greek ASE Index (+5.4% mom in EUR terms), but more muted performances from the Romanian BET and Turkish ISE 30 indices (+1.6%...
Repeat of 2024, with different headwinds – Following a year in which Greek equities performed broadly in line with EU periphery stocks (but better than broad EU indices), 2025 looks somewhat trickier given international headwinds (e.g. tariffs, geopolitics). Easing monetary policy is certainly a positive, in the sense that it could justify higher valuations, but the overriding driver of re-rating would be a resolution of the war in Ukraine, as is the case for the EU as a whole. On the positive s...
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