EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call: Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Well-Positioned For 1Q Results Season: Our April picks again beat the KLCI. May 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MYEG, Press Meta...
The HSI and MSCI China rose 7.4% and 6.4% mom respectively in April, lifted by news of a stock connect scheme expansion and further easing of restrictions on property purchases in China. With the July Politburo likely to see further supportive policy rollout, we are adding beneficiaries of improving domestic consumption − CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou and Tencent − to our BUY list, and closing out our SELL calls.
Yili’s earnings grew 64% yoy in 1Q24 due to one-off investment gains, despite a weak liquid milk revenue (-7% yoy). We expect liquid milk revenue to trend down in 2Q24 as Yili aims to reduce channel shipments amid the weak retail sales demand. Management guides for revenue growth of 3% yoy in 2024, which we think will be driven by consumption scene expansion and product innovation, and also reiterated its net profit margin target of at least 9% in 2025. Maintain BUY. Cut target price by 5% to Rm...
CBC’s 1Q24 revenue rose 7% yoy, driven by a 5% beer sales volume growth and 1% ASP growth. Its flagship product, Wusu, achieved sales volume growth in 1Q24, mainly driven by sales in its home market, whereas sales outside of its home market also saw positive yoy growth. Looking into 2024, ASP is expected to improve, driven by product innovations, while per unit COGS is expected to trend down, despite additional depreciation from the new factory. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rmb...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected at 50.4% (-0.4ppt) and stayed in the expansionary zone for the second month. It was mainly supported by production and new orders as employment remained a drag, dropping 0.1ppt to 48.0%. Non-manufacturing hit a three-month low of 51.2%, dragged by moderation in new orders and business expectations. We expect policy support to continue and the July Politburo may see new measures being rolled out. Sector Aviation T...
In 1Q24, Midea’s smart home solutions business recorded revenue growth of 11% yoy, with overseas business expansion making great efforts through new channels and in new markets. We are in favour of Midea’s overseas expansion achievements, and we believe the still robust AC production planning data for 2Q24 will boost the sentiment of AC makers. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rmb76.20.
HEADLINES: • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24 results – 19%+ headline ROE affected only slightly by FX mortgage saga costs • Bank Pekao: 1Q24 results in line with market's expectations NEUTRAL • PCF Group: 4Q23 headlines hit heavily by write-offs, but a more limited EBITDA loss than we had expected NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • OMV: 1Q24 results – chemicals stronger than expected NEUTRAL • Borouge: 1Q24 results – better than expected POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • Garan...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$34.95/Target: HK$44.00) CMB’s 1Q24 earnings were slightly below our expectations due to disappointing fee income and higher cost ratio, partly offset by strong trading gains and lower credit impairment. 1Q24 NIM performance beat our expectation with a 2bp qoq decline and we expect it to hit its bottom by 2024 if there is another round of deposit rate cuts. Besides that, asset quality remains largely stable. Maintain BUY. Target price:...
DELTA posted 1Q24 net profit of Bt4.3b (+19% yoy, -9% qoq), coming in below our and market estimates. Earnings missed expectations due to lower-than-expected gross margin and higher-than-expected SG&A-to-sales. We expect revenue and gross margin to slightly improve qoq in 2Q24 due to better revenue and gross margin from the absence of one-time items from raw material cost revaluation and inventory provision. Upgrade from SELL to HOLD with a target price: Bt63.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Bangchak Petroleum (BCP TB/BUY/Bt42.50/Target: Bt52.00) 1Q24 Preview: Expect strong earnings turnaround. Bangchak Sriracha (BSRC TB/BUY/Bt9.05/Target: Bt15.00) 1Q24 results preview: In the black. CENTRAL PATTANA (CPN TB/BUY/Bt62.00/Target: Bt83.00) Expect earnings to increase 26% yoy and 3% qoq in 1Q24. Delta Electronics (DELTA TB/HOLD/Bt70.00/Target: Bt63.00) Earnings to improve after 1Q24; upgrade to HOLD. ...
GREATER CHINA Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$34.95/Target: HK$44.00) 1Q24: Earnings miss on muted fee income and higher cost-to-income ratio. China Resources Building Materials Tech (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.34/Target: HK$1.83) 1Q24: Mixed bag of results; regaining cement market share. Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb24.52/Target: Rmb29.10) 1Q24: Margins miss likely due to product mix, AI business remains robust. Haier Smart Home (6690 HK/BUY/HK$27.10/Target: ...
Moutai’s attributable net profit grew 16% yoy in 1Q24, with net profit margin down 1ppt yoy due to a higher tax and selling expense ratio. Looking ahead, Moutai aims to achieve a comprehensive penetration of terminal point-of-sales (POS) in 2024 and lift the ASP of non-Feitian series by launching new products. We remain confident on the net profit margin expansion for 2024, due to higher ASP and continuous expansion in the direct sales channel. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rmb2,488.
Haitian’s 2023 results missed our estimates, dragged by lower-than-expected revenue growth. The company aims to grow revenue and attributable net profit by 12% and 11% respectively in 2024, which implies a likely net profit margin squeeze yoy. In our view, the company is likely to face near-term headwinds due to channel fragmentation and catering companies’ growing preference for single-seasoning products. Maintain HOLD and cut target price by 3% to Rmb36.00.
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: weak bottom-line performance in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • Sipchem: 1Q24 results – weak net income NEGATIVE • Kruk: issues flash 1Q24 net profit of PLN 338m NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 April) • Türkiye macro: MPC takes a pause, but hiking cycle not over yet • OTP Bank: CEO Csanyi speaks at AGM on future acquisitions and Russian exposure POSITIVE • Budimex: BXF Energia acquires 60 MW photovoltaic project NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: dividend policy for 2023-25E and p...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile We raise 2024 forecasts on China’s PV sales growth and PEV sales growth from +8%/+21% to +10%/+24% on bigger-than-expected subsidies for the cash-for-clunker program and zero downpayment auto loans. Meanwhile, we lift the target prices of BYD, Geely, GWM, GAC and Yadea to HK$160.00/HK$13.00/HK$13.50/HK$3.30 /HK$20.00 respectively. Upgrade GWM from HOLD to BUY, and upgrade GAC from SELL to HOLD. Top BUY: CATL, Geely and Yadea. Top SELL: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. ...
GREATER CHINA Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.72/Target: HK$6.40): 1Q24: Below expectations; low wind speed weighed on performance. COSCO SHIPPING Ports (1199 HK/BUY/HK$4.62/Target: HK$6.75): 1Q24: Results in line; steady performance in a seasonally slow quarter with headwinds. Dian Diagnostics (300244 CH/BUY/Rmb14.13/Target: Rmb18.50): 1Q24: ICL revenue growth satisfactory; esoteric testing and self-developed product segments remain 2024’s key growth drivers. Foshan Haitian Flavou...
The CEE region is expected to deliver a moderate rebound of GDP growth in 2024,following the preceding year’s weak growth, fuelling expectations of sustainable profits inthe banking sector. Inflation is seen to be twin faced in our region, similar to most of the coreeconomies. Even with a diminished potential for much intra-year improvement of the inflationpath in 2024, this inflation provides several CEE central banks more room to cut policy ratesthis year. Lower interest rates are expected to ...
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