reports
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Timeline Of Recent Demonstrations And Government Response
Protests over parliament members’ allowances began on 25 August and escalated after the death of a ride-hailing driver on 28 August, spreading nationwide. On 31 August, President Prabowo and parliament leaders announced the cancellation of the allowances, suspension of overseas trips, and dialogue with representative groups, while instructing security forces to take firm action to quell the unrest. The rupiah weakened 1.28% against the US dollar over the past week.
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Equity-Bond Yield Gap: A Renewed Opportunity
Indonesia’s 10-year government bond yield has fallen to 6.3% and could ease further to 6.1% by end-25, narrowing the yield gap with equities. Around 19 JCI stocks offer dividend yields above bond yields, led by SOE banks (>8%) and selected consumers and commodities (filtered by decent liquidity). However, we think HMSP and UNVR are dividend traps, while cyclical resource dividend yields carry risks and rewards that highly depend on the commodity price cycle. Top dividend picks: BBNI and AKRA.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - JCI Momentum Finds New Fuel Ahead
JCI has surged 10% in three months, sharply outperforming LQ45 and MSCI Indonesia, driven by liquidity-fuelled speculation in conglomerate-linked names despite muted earnings and soft macro data. Political consolidation, rate cuts and improving macro indicators support sentiment, with rotation across major business groups sustaining momentum. We raise our JCI target to 8,000, reflecting our decision to roll forward our valuation to 2026 earnings, incorporating our forecast for 6.5% EPS growth in...
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, August 19, 2025
Strategy: JCI Momentum Finds New Fuel Ahead: The JCI has surged 10% in three months, sharply outperforming LQ45 and MSCI Indonesia. We raise our JCI target to 8,000. TRADERS’ CORNER Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ): Technical BUY Delta Giri Wacana (DGWG IJ): Technical BUY
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Underperformance In July
In Jul 25, our portfolio underperformed the JCI by -11.1%, mainly due to the rally in conglomerate-related stocks (with the largest contributors being DCII, BREN, BRPT, DSSA and CDIA). Assuming no price movement in the top 10 conglomerate-related stocks, our portfolio underperformed the JCI by -5.3%. Events to monitor next week include Indonesia’s 2Q25 GDP figure and MSCI announcements on 5 and 7 August. Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, AKRA, ARCI, BBNI, MTEL, KLBF and MYOR.
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Lester Siew
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, July 30, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet WAIC - Battlefield of AI applications and agents to reshape productivity. Results WuXi AppTec (2359 HK/BUY/HK$111.70/Target: HK$146.00) 1H25: Results beat; benefitting from growing CRDMO service demand. Upgrade to BUY. INDONESIA Results AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ/BUY/Rp1,345/Target: Rp1,525) 2Q25: Momentum builds, but 4Q25 to del...
AKRA PT AKR CORPORINDO TBK
AMATA AMATA CORP
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
AOT AIRPORTS OF THAILAND PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
HAPL HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
WUXI APPTEC CO. LTD. CLASS H
- Posmarito Pakpahan
AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - 2Q25: Momentum Builds, But 4Q25 To Deliver ...
2Q25 net profit grew 8.8% qoq, bringing 1H25 net profit to 17.6% yoy, driven by the strong trading and contribution business. Management maintains its land sales target at 80-100ha in 2025, with most sales expected in 4Q25 (1H25: 22ha). We raise our 2025 net profit estimate by 7.1% and target price to Rp1,525. We maintain our BUY rating due to its: a) strong core performance, b) upcoming land sales, c) growing utilities income, and d) solid dividend. AKRA will distribute Rp50/share interim divid...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Audrey Celia
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Industrial Estate: Positive Sentiment On The Industrial Est...
We see positive top-down sentiment on the industrial estate sector with Indonesia’s relatively favourable US tariff rate and strong investment growth. AKRA (BUY, Target: Rp1,350) expects land enquiries of 700-800 ha in the next five years to come from chemicals, EV/renewables and basic materials. Meanwhile, SSIA (share price up 220% over the past three months) is confident that its anchor tenant, BYD, will complete its plant construction by early-26 and expects the toll-road access to be complet...
- Audrey Celia
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
- Benyamin Mikael
- Damon Shen
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Philip Wong
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, June 18, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Takeaways from channel check at The Southside. INDONESIA Strategy Higher Oil Prices Bode Well For Some Participants Beneficiaries of higher oil prices. Takeaways From Our Marketing Trip To Kuala Lumpur Cautious but engaged. MALAYSIA Sector Construction Sector resists tensions from global uncerta...
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
AKRA PT AKR CORPORINDO TBK
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
5226 GABUNGAN AQRS
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
GAM GAMUDA BHD
ROTH BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO BHD
SCGB SUNWAY CONSTRUCTION GROUP BH
IJM IJM CORP BHD
FNH FRASER & NEAVE HOLDINGS BHD
HEIM HEINEKEN MALAYSIA BHD
CAB CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA B
MRC MALAYSIAN RESOURCES CORP BHD
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
KPG KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BHD
NESZ NESTLE (MALAYSIA) BERHAD
QLG QL RESOURCES BHD
WCTHG WCT HOLDINGS BHD
MRDIY MR DIY GROUP M BHD
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
FFB FARM FRESH BHD
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
99SMART 99 SPEED MART RETAIL HOLDINGS BHD
KOPI MK ORIENTAL KOPI HOLDINGS BHD
ECOSHOP MK ECO-SHOP MARKETING BHD
- Benyamin Mikael
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Wednesday, June 18, 2025
Strategy: Higher Oil Prices Bode Well For Some Market Participants: Beneficiaries of higher oil prices. Takeaways From Our Marketing Trip To Kuala Lumpur: Cautious but engaged. TRADERS’ CORNER Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ): Technical BUY Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ): Technical BUY
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Ejann Hiew
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Lester Siew
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Wei Xiang Ku
- Willinoy Sitorus
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, April 28, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: Takeaways from Shanghai Auto Show 2025. 1Q25 results review for BYD, GWM and GAC. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Consumer: Politburo meeting: Emphasising income improvement and service consumption; prefer consumer companies with strong cost control and domestic focus. Results BYD Company (1211 HK/BUY/HK$397.00/Target: HK$510.00): 1Q25: Earnings double yoy, in line. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$510.00. EVE Energy (300014 HK/BU...
XGH ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
AKRA PT AKR CORPORINDO TBK
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
N2IU MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
PLANB PLAN B MEDIA
SPALI SUPALAI PCL
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
CTOS CTOS DIGITAL BHD
DELTA DELTA ELECTRONICS
- Posmarito Pakpahan
AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - 1Q25: Solid Trading And Distribution, Weak ...
1Q25 net profit fell 5.1% yoy (-21% yoy) to Rp565b, due to an absence of land sales. The trading & distribution segment remained strong, with gross profit growing 16.7% yoy and contributing 81% of total gross profit as margin expanded. Despite the absence of land sales, JIIPE contributed 12% of gross profit in 1Q25 as revenue from utilities surged. Upgrade to BUY for AKRA’s strong core performance, 8-9% dividend yield and upcoming land sales. It is trading at 9.8x 2025F PE. Target price: Rp1,350...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Monday, April 28, 2025
AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ/BUY/Rp1,185/Target: Rp1,350): 1Q25: Weak land sales, but strong trading and distribution business. Starting to book land sales in 2Q25. Upgrade to BUY. Astra International (ASII IJ/HOLD/Rp4,860/Target: Rp5,100): EV disruption is worsening; cheap but lacks catalysts. Downgrade to HOLD. TRADERS’ CORNER Bank Jago (ARTO IJ): Technical BUY Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ): Technical BUY
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Gigi Cheuk
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Kate Luang
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, April 15, 2025
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade: A divergence between exports and imports. Strategy China And Hong Kong Property: Sales recovery weakened in Apr 25; watch for further policy support and the implications of Hong Kong’s free trade status. Results Zijin Mining (2899 HK/BUY/HK$17.22/Target: HK$24.00): 1Q25: In line; poised to capitalise on gold price surge with robust production growth. Update Kingboard Laminates Holdings (1888 HK/BUY/HK$7.69/Target: HK$9.58): Cautiously optimistic on 1H25; developing...
- Posmarito Pakpahan
AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - Expecting A Recovery In The Trading And Dis...
AKRA could deliver a Rp2.4t net profit in 2025, growing 9% on: a) a sales volume recovery in its trading and distribution business, and b) 90ha land sales. Despite the uncertainties, AKRA has not changed its guidance to book a Rp2.4t-2.6t net profit in 2025. The company expects to roll over the 60ha land sales target from 2024 into 2025 while the recovery in the trading and distribution business could continue. We make significant changes to our earnings estimates. Maintain HOLD. Target price: R...
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