Greater China Economics | Economic Activity Economic activity in 2M26 broadly surprised to the upside. Industrial production accelerated to 6.3% yoy, while retail sales recovered to 2.8% yoy. FAI ytd rebounded to 1.8% yoy, beating expectations of a contraction, supported by strong infrastructure spending and a marked improvement in property FAI ytd to −11.1% yoy. However, it remains to be seen if the rebound is sustainable, as February’s PMI remained in contractionary territory at 49.0. Se...
ASEAN Gems Corporate Highlights | AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ/BUY/Rp1,285/Target: Rp1,525) We maintain BUY on AKRA with a Rp1,525 target price, as the investment case is increasingly supported by JIIPE’s recurring income ramp-up. Utilities income rose 199% yoy in 9M25 and should continue growing in 2026, improving earnings quality and supporting RNAV. Additional upside could come from sulfuric acid distribution, 90–100ha of land sales, and continued retail expansion. While the LNG project is strateg...
Strategy | Feedback From Taipei Trip Investor tone has shifted from expectations of rate cuts toward rising inflationary concerns, making the upcoming post-1Q26 earnings results a key focus for the market. Feedback from our Taiwan trip suggests a broadly cautious stance, with most investors remaining in a wait-and-see mode until there is clearer improvement across macro conditions, fiscal outlook, and IDX-specific issues. In this environment of high oil prices and a strong DXY, our preferred pic...
A director at AKR Corporindo Tbk PT sold 2,114,700 shares at 1,348.723IDR and the significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Rotating To Commodities Amid Macro Volatility February was volatile as foreign fund outflows, MSCI downgrade concerns, and fiscal risks pressured the JCI, with our Alpha Picks underperforming slightly. March opened with an oil spike following Middle East tensions, though we view this as event-driven rather than structural. Meanwhile, domestic indicators, PMI, retail sales, market confidence, and liquidity, show a gradual improvement. We tactically rotate toward commodity ...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Seazen’s C-REIT application signals improving financing channels. Sector fundamentals remain weak, with 2M26 developers’ contract sales and major cities’ new-home data still under pressure, despite relatively resilient secondary transactions. Second-hand property prices modestly recovered mom in four Tier 1 cities. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT but see potential policy after the March NPC. Our top pick is CR Land, trading at 0.65x 26PB, 0.6SD below mean...
Economics | Inflation Surge Due To Persistent Low-Base Effect, Middle East War Clouds Outlook Indonesia's headline inflation surged to 4.76% yoy in Feb 26, driven by a low-base effect and Ramadan food demand. Core inflation held steady at 2.63% but fell below 2.00% if gold is excluded, signalling modest domestic demand. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, now pose the primary risk to global monetary easing. Bank Indonesia is expect...
Strategy | Potential LNG Infrastructure Investment Boom Indonesia is structurally shifting from pipeline gas to LNG due to declining legacy gas fields in Java and Sumatra and limited pipeline infrastructure. This shift is reinforced by power-sector decarbonisation and PLN’s capacity expansion, driving multi-year LNG demand and infrastructure investment. LNG-related stocks have rallied about 113% over the past three months. GTS Internasional (GTSI, Not Rated) remains the only pure-play LNG logist...
Greater China Economics | Inflation December CPI inflation rose to 0.8% yoy (+0.1ppt mom), the strongest reading ytd, with a sharp rebound in food prices. Core CPI remained at 1.2% yoy, the highest level for 2025, with goods inflation strengthening further while services inflation continued to ease slightly. PPI deflation moderated to 1.9% yoy (+0.3ppt mom), supported by improvements in mining and consumer goods pricing. Overall, the data suggests tentative price stabilisation, although defl...
Economics | The 2025 Budget Realisation: A Deficit Beyond Targets, Stability Amid Spending The 2025 deficit widened to 2.92% of GDP, driven by a tax shortfall, though strong non-tax revenue provided an offset. Spending underperformed overall but showed a clear priority for social and capital projects. Markets remained stable due to the central bank’s intervention. For 2026, while the government targets a 2.7% of GDP deficit, we forecast a more realistic 2.8-3.0% gap. Financing will remain substa...
Protests over parliament members’ allowances began on 25 August and escalated after the death of a ride-hailing driver on 28 August, spreading nationwide. On 31 August, President Prabowo and parliament leaders announced the cancellation of the allowances, suspension of overseas trips, and dialogue with representative groups, while instructing security forces to take firm action to quell the unrest. The rupiah weakened 1.28% against the US dollar over the past week.
Indonesia’s 10-year government bond yield has fallen to 6.3% and could ease further to 6.1% by end-25, narrowing the yield gap with equities. Around 19 JCI stocks offer dividend yields above bond yields, led by SOE banks (>8%) and selected consumers and commodities (filtered by decent liquidity). However, we think HMSP and UNVR are dividend traps, while cyclical resource dividend yields carry risks and rewards that highly depend on the commodity price cycle. Top dividend picks: BBNI and AKRA.
JCI has surged 10% in three months, sharply outperforming LQ45 and MSCI Indonesia, driven by liquidity-fuelled speculation in conglomerate-linked names despite muted earnings and soft macro data. Political consolidation, rate cuts and improving macro indicators support sentiment, with rotation across major business groups sustaining momentum. We raise our JCI target to 8,000, reflecting our decision to roll forward our valuation to 2026 earnings, incorporating our forecast for 6.5% EPS growth in...
Strategy: JCI Momentum Finds New Fuel Ahead: The JCI has surged 10% in three months, sharply outperforming LQ45 and MSCI Indonesia. We raise our JCI target to 8,000. TRADERS’ CORNER Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ): Technical BUY Delta Giri Wacana (DGWG IJ): Technical BUY
In Jul 25, our portfolio underperformed the JCI by -11.1%, mainly due to the rally in conglomerate-related stocks (with the largest contributors being DCII, BREN, BRPT, DSSA and CDIA). Assuming no price movement in the top 10 conglomerate-related stocks, our portfolio underperformed the JCI by -5.3%. Events to monitor next week include Indonesia’s 2Q25 GDP figure and MSCI announcements on 5 and 7 August. Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, AKRA, ARCI, BBNI, MTEL, KLBF and MYOR.
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet WAIC - Battlefield of AI applications and agents to reshape productivity. Results WuXi AppTec (2359 HK/BUY/HK$111.70/Target: HK$146.00) 1H25: Results beat; benefitting from growing CRDMO service demand. Upgrade to BUY. INDONESIA Results AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ/BUY/Rp1,345/Target: Rp1,525) 2Q25: Momentum builds, but 4Q25 to del...
2Q25 net profit grew 8.8% qoq, bringing 1H25 net profit to 17.6% yoy, driven by the strong trading and contribution business. Management maintains its land sales target at 80-100ha in 2025, with most sales expected in 4Q25 (1H25: 22ha). We raise our 2025 net profit estimate by 7.1% and target price to Rp1,525. We maintain our BUY rating due to its: a) strong core performance, b) upcoming land sales, c) growing utilities income, and d) solid dividend. AKRA will distribute Rp50/share interim divid...
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