Company Update | Bangkok Bank (BBL TB/HOLD/Bt176.50/Target: Bt180.00) BBL announced a dividend payment of Bt10.00 per share in 2025, translating to a dividend payout ratio of 42.45% in 2025. Due to the higher-than-expected dividend payment in 2025, we increase our forecasted dividend payout ratio for 2026 from 40.2% to 47.3%. However, our earnings forecasts remain unchanged. The ROE outlook is a positive surprise. Upgrade to HOLD with a higher target price of Bt180.00 (previous: Bt140.00).
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China's humanoid robotics sector is accelerating, with 2025 global shipments up 508%. Key players anticipate significant revenue contributions by 2031: CATL expects 3-7% from batteries; Minth and LeaderDrive project 5-12% and 45-65% respectively; Tuopu forecasts 15-25% from motion systems; and RoboSense targets 40-60% from LiDAR. We maintain a MARKET WEIGHT rating on the sector. Top BUY recommendations include CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth (target price ra...
Top Stories Company Update | AP (Thailand) (AP TB/BUY/Bt9.40/Target: Bt10.80) 4Q25 earnings were in line with expectations, flat yoy and up 12% qoq, marking the quarterly peak for the year. AP plans to launch projects worth Bt55b in 2026, the highest value among peers. It targets single-digit growth in presales and transfers in 2026. Fundamentals and dividend payment are expected to support its share price. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt10.80. Company Update | Bangkok Bank (BBL TB/HOLD/Bt176...
Company Update | Bangkok Bank (BBL TB/SELL/Bt164.00/Target: Bt140.00) We came away from BBL’s analyst meeting with a neutral view. BBL will focus on corporate and international loans, which are expected to drive loan growth in 2026. 2026’s financial year targets have been set, with credit cost and asset quality outlook similar to last year’s. Meanwhile, we reckon there will be no change in dividend policy and other capital management methods in 2026 based on the CEO’s tone. Maintain SELL with an...
Top Stories Company Update | Airports of Thailand (AOT TB/BUY/Bt57.50/Target: Bt80.00) AOT delivered a positive 1QFY26 analyst meeting, with PSC hike approval signed on 9 Feb 26 and implementation expected in 4QFY26, prompting an 11% upgrade to our 2026 earnings forecast. AOT reported a 1QFY26 profit of Bt4.6b, beating our expectation despite the weaker concession revenue. Costs were below estimates and revenue was slightly stronger than expected. Overhangs from KPD and PSC are resolved. Upgra...
Greater China Economics | Money Supply M0 growth was weaker in Jan 26 due to Chinese New Year effects, while M2 growth rose to 9.0% yoy, the highest since 2023. New bank loans surged to Rmb4.71t and new TSF rose to Rmb7.22t, both above consensus forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth fell to a record-low 6.1% yoy, highlighting fragile underlying credit demand despite strong front-loaded lending. Sector Update | Healthcare HSHCI rose 1.8%, outperforming the HSI, which declined b...
Greater China Company Update | Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$82.55/Target: HK$103.40) In 4Q25, the Anta brand’s retail sales missed expectations, recording a low single-digit decline. In contrast, Fila achieved mid-single-digit growth, accelerating from low single-digit growth in 3Q25, and all other brands continued to demonstrate robust growth at 35-40%. For 2026, management expects group-level operating margin to face pressure due to the need for sustained investment in both the Anta brand and F...
Company Results | Bangkok Bank (BBL TB/SELL/Bt170.50/Target: Bt140.00) BBL posted a 4Q25 net profit of Bt7.76b, -25% yoy and -44% qoq. The results missed both our and consensus expectations by 27% due to a large reduction in investment gain and higher-than-expected opex. We expect no further material investment gains in the future. BBL attributed the jump in opex to the accrued expenses for consulting and numerous investment projects. Downgrade to SELL with a lower target price of Bt140.00 (Bt17...
Top Stories Company Results | Bangkok Bank (BBL TB/SELL/Bt170.50/Target: Bt140.00) BBL posted a 4Q25 net profit of Bt7.76b, -25% yoy and -44% qoq. The results missed both our and consensus expectations by 27% due to a large reduction in investment gain and higher-than-expected opex. We expect no further material investment gains in the future. BBL attributed the jump in opex to the accrued expenses for consulting and numerous investment projects. Downgrade to SELL with a lower target price of B...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December...
Greater China Company Results | Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb80.80/Target: Rmb89.50) FII registered a stellar quarter, with net profit beating our and consensus estimates on stronger-than-expected margins. Top-line lagged our expectations, likely due to differences in product mix, and also the reason behind margins remaining elevated despite the product ramp-up of the lower-margin GB200 NVL72 racks. With the recent checks continuing to point towards a much stronger-than-expected...
Company Update | Bangkok Bank (BBL TB/HOLD/Bt157.50/Target: Bt170.00) We came away from BBL’s analyst meeting with a slightly positive view. BBL remains positive on the longer-term economic outlook. It maintains its 2025 GDP forecast of 1.5-2.0% and also forecasts 1.5-2.0% for 2026. The bank expects a single policy rate cut to 1.25% in Dec 25. In addition, it is maintaining its 2025 financial year targets. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt170.00.
Top Stories Company Results | Siam Cement (SCC TB/BUY/Bt207.00/Target: Bt290.00) SCC reported a net loss of Bt669m in 3Q25, larger than both our and the consensus forecasts, mainly due to substantial inventory losses. The weak 3Q25 performance reflected seasonal factors and continued softness in olefins spreads. However, we expect earnings to return to a profit in 4Q25, supported by stronger performance from the cement and packaging businesses. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt290.00. Company U...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...
Company Results | Bangkok Bank (BBL TB/HOLD/Bt155.50/Target: Bt170.00) BBL posted a 3Q25 net profit of Bt13.8b, +11% yoy and +17% qoq. The results beat our and consensus expectations by 40% and 27%, respectively. The loan portfolio contracted 3.2% in 9M25. Meanwhile, an investment gain boosted bottom line, beating expectations in 3Q25. We should see the NPL reduction pattern continuing in 4Q25, in line with the guidance. Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of Bt170.00.
Top Stories Company Results | Bangkok Bank (BBL TB/HOLD/Bt155.50/Target: Bt170.00) BBL posted a 3Q25 net profit of Bt13.8b, +11% yoy and +17% qoq. The results beat our and consensus expectations by 40% and 27%, respectively. The loan portfolio contracted 3.2% in 9M25. Meanwhile, an investment gain boosted bottom line, beating expectations in 3Q25. We should see the NPL reduction pattern continuing in 4Q25, in line with the guidance. Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of Bt170.00. Compan...
Greater China Company Update | PICC P&C (2328 HK/BUY/HK$19.04/Target: HK$22.20) PICC P&C issued a positive profit alert, expecting its net profit to surge 40-60% in 9M25, attributed to a significant increase in underwriting profit and strong investment gains amid the stock market rally. We forecast continued CoR improvement in 4Q25, supported by the implementation of non-auto commission reforms effective from 1 Nov 25. We lift our 2025 earnings estimates by 8.9% to factor in the 3Q25 positiv...
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