reports
- Chris Hoare
LY Corp (Buy, TP: ¥585, +25%) Q3 FY23 Quick Take: Strong EBITDA beat;...
LY delivered a strong EBITDA beat today, ahead consensus by 9% and upgraded EBITDA guidance for the full year, from +10% to +17%. We observed strong momentum in Commerce and Strategic. Beginning from this quarter onwards, the company had reallocated its costs, mostly to its Media and Commerce business and a smaller proportion to Strategic., thus retroactive revisions were made.
- Chris Hoare
LY Corp (Buy, TP: ¥585, +33%) Q2 FY23 Quick Take: Better trends and a...
LY (previously “Z Holdings”) delivered a strong set of results today. EBITDA outperformed and was 15% ahead of expectations, led by increased efficiency in sales promotion and reduction of commissions. Trends in Media and Commerce improved, while PayPay’s EBITDA stayed positive for the second quarter. The company is also seeing good traction from its Yahoo and Line ID linkage.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Japanese e-Commerce A slower quarter; CY 1Q23 review
Q1 was a slower quarter for the Japanese e-Commerce space. GMV growth slowed, it is still growing double digit though, take rates were mixed and pure B2C e-Commerce revenue slowed as a result. Z Holdings had a weak Q4 (CYQ1) but we think FY23 may be the turning point. Rakuten’s performance in e-Commerce/Fintech was decent again but we remain concerned by the mobile business.
- Thao Nguyen
PSA Internet / eCommerce: Z Holdings (4689 JT) – Feeling a Sense of Ur...
Since Mar 2021, when LINE was integrated, Z Holdings has done little more than scratching the surface in terms of realising group synergies. Analyst Thao Nguyen reviews the FY22 results and FY23 outlook, and reinstates her neutral stance regarding the company’s business prospects.
- Chris Hoare
Z Holdings (Buy, PT: ¥585 from ¥940, +58%) Q4 22: Weak quarter, possi...
Z Holdings reported lower than expected Q4 results, driven by the declining EC GMV trend. Q4 22 revenue was 7% lighter than consensus while adjusted EBITDA was 5% behind. However, we think FY23 may be the turning point for Z Holdings.
- Thao Nguyen
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Kirk Boodry
- Chris Hoare
Z Holdings (Buy, TP: ¥940, +250%) Q3 22: Weak advertising and GMV, gu...
Z Holdings has reported a disappointing set of Q3 results with improving profitability but deteriorating trends on Media and EC GMV that are being impacted by the weaker macro economy. Revenue guidance has been maintained (though will be challenging we think), but EBITDA guidance for the full year has been cut to the low end of the previous range (¥331.5bn from range ¥331.5 - ¥340bn), despite a decent performance this quarter.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Thao Nguyen
PSA Internet: A Review of Selected Smartphone Game Companies
Despite having been labelled as lockdown stocks, smartphone game companies have not been sold off to the same extent as have other Covid beneficiaries, such as EC companies, against the backdrop of the reopening of the economy. That smartphone game stocks have been relatively resilient suggests that the services they provide have become a part of people’s daily lives. The fact that restrictions to movement have been lifted does not mean that people will stop playing smartphone games or reduce th...
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Z Holdings (Buy, TP: ¥940, +137%) Q2 22: Mixed quarter, g...
Z Holdings has reported a mixed set of Q2 results with improving trends on the Commerce and Strategic but deteriorating trends on the Media side which is still being impacted by the weaker macro economy. Guidance for the full year has been maintained; the company will optimise costs to offset the negative impact on Adj.EBITDA from the consolidation of PayPay and tougher trends from the Media business.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
New Street: Japan e-Commerce A sequentially stable quarter; CY 2Q22 r...
Q2 was a stable quarter when compared to Q1 overall. Market GMV grew by c.10% YoY, like in Q1 and market share were broadly stable too. We continue to think that the fundamentals are strong but the short-term is likely to remain challenging.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Z Holdings (Buy, TP: ¥940, +118%) Feedback from small gro...
Mixed feedback from our call with Z Holdings with overall the LINE transaction looking positive but the company still not able to set a date for when they will link IDs across the group post the LINE transaction and mid-term group revenue guidance in particular looking hard to achieve, while margins continue to be impacted by aggressive investments.
- Chris Hoare
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