During the Labour Day holiday, tourism and catering continued to record strong performances, while DF per capita spending showed a downward trend. We reiterate our key theses for the consumer sector, highlighting companies with: a) overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) upside potential of improving operating efficiency, or c) near-term catalysts. We keep Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou as our most preferred stocks, but remove Galaxy from the stock picks. Mainta...
Wuliangye’s 2023 results were in line with our and consensus estimates. The dividend payout ratio hike (+5ppt yoy to 60%) in 2023 was a pleasant surprise. 1Q24 revenue growth (+12% yoy) was on track with a revenue growth target of double-digit yoy for 2024. Looking ahead, we see a gradual improvement in Wuliangye’s brand value, as it has cut shipments in the traditional channels, further improving dealers’ confidence and profitability. Maintain BUY with unchanged target price at Rmb218.90.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile We raise 2024 forecasts on China’s PV sales growth and PEV sales growth from +8%/+21% to +10%/+24% on bigger-than-expected subsidies for the cash-for-clunker program and zero downpayment auto loans. Meanwhile, we lift the target prices of BYD, Geely, GWM, GAC and Yadea to HK$160.00/HK$13.00/HK$13.50/HK$3.30 /HK$20.00 respectively. Upgrade GWM from HOLD to BUY, and upgrade GAC from SELL to HOLD. Top BUY: CATL, Geely and Yadea. Top SELL: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. ...
GREATER CHINA Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.72/Target: HK$6.40): 1Q24: Below expectations; low wind speed weighed on performance. COSCO SHIPPING Ports (1199 HK/BUY/HK$4.62/Target: HK$6.75): 1Q24: Results in line; steady performance in a seasonally slow quarter with headwinds. Dian Diagnostics (300244 CH/BUY/Rmb14.13/Target: Rmb18.50): 1Q24: ICL revenue growth satisfactory; esoteric testing and self-developed product segments remain 2024’s key growth drivers. Foshan Haitian Flavou...
In this report, we have summarised what we read from consumer companies’ 2023 results, the 2024 outlook and recent updates. We think companies: a) with overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) that have upside potential of improving operating efficiency, c) that will benefit from near-term catalysts (eg event-driven), and d) have increasing dividend payout will outperform. Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou are our most preferred stocks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
During the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, tourism, both domestic and outbound, catering and movie consumption put up strong performances. For the consumer sector, we prefer discretionary to staple, and Macau gaming in the discretionary space, given the strong recovery momentum of Macau tourism and moderate hike in opex. Galaxy is our top pick in Macau gaming sector, given its net cash position amid the higher interests. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Baijiu companies generally have a positive tone on 2024 revenue growth targets and have laid out pragmatic solutions to facilitate dealers’ pre-payment willingness. Despite that, dealers’ willingness and confidence in the baijiu end-demand recovery remain lacklustre. We also note that high-end baijiu companies have yet to follow Moutai’s ex-factory price hikes, as channel inventory pressures exist. Our top pick remains Moutai. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
3Q23 results beat the street’s estimates by 5%, due to higher-than-expected revenue. The company’s marketing efforts that target retail consumers have improved bottle opening rates and channel inventories during the holidays, laying a solid foundation for future sales growth. Wuliangye is on track to register a double-digit revenue and earnings growth in 2023, underpinned by an upgraded product mix and higher marketing precision. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rmb231.40.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Aviation Airlines: 3Q23 results broadly in line; bottom line turned around in the seasonal peak quarter. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.90) 3Q23: In line; 3Q23 wind power utilisation hours down 34 hours yoy. ENN Energy Holdings Limited (2688 HK/BUY/HK$61.70/Target: HK$72.10) 3Q23 operational data: 3Q23 dollar margin falls to Rmb0.50/cbm. Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK/HOLD/HK$3.81/Target: HK$4.00) 3Q23: Below...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines: 3Q23 results broadly in line; bottom line turned around in the seasonal peak quarter. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.90): 3Q23: In line; 3Q23 wind power utilisation hours down 34 hours yoy. Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK/HOLD/HK$3.76/Target: HK$4.00): 3Q23: Below expectations; 3Q23 WTG sales growth slows to +6.0% yoy. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/BUY/HK$10.82/Target: HK$13.50): 3Q23: Earnings tripl...
During the Golden Week holiday, domestic tourism and catering recovery were on track while duty-free sales recovery was still weak. We prefer sportswear in the discretionary space, given the decent sales momentum during the holiday (Anta: in line with internal targets; Xtep: 20% yoy growth), and baijiu in the staples space, given baijiu’s strong brand power. We prefer Anta in the sportswear sector, given its multiple catalysts, and Moutai in the baijiu sector, for its highest earnings visibility...
Share prices of baijiu companies under our coverage have fallen by 4-9% since early- Sep 23 given the weak environment. We expect mild retail sales growth for baijiu, with low-end to mid-range products (Rmb80-300) recovering faster than sub-premium (Rmb300-800) and the “thousand yuan” products. Moutai remains our top pick given its highest earnings visibility, while other names face intensified competition in the sub-premium category and firm-specific inventory destocking. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on...
Wuliangye reported in-line earnings for 1H23. Overall shipment was up 29% yoy in 1H23, with notable growth in non-Wuliangye series due to higher sell-through rates. We slightly lower our revenue growth forecast for 2023 to factor in a weaker-than-expected economic recovery in 1H23. Dealers’ profitability could improve in the subsequent months with better bottle-opening rates and reduced shipment in traditional channels. Maintain BUY with lower (-7%) target price of Rmb231.40.
GREATER CHINA Results Anhui Conch (914 HK/BUY/HK$22.00/Target: HK$28.30): 1H23: In line; industry-leading performance. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$22.35/Target: HK$26.90): 1H23: In line; gas sales growth offset by weak new connections. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/BUY/Rmb107.50/Target: Rmb138.00): 2Q23: Margin a key concern. EVE Energy (300014 HK/BUY/Rmb48.60/Target: Rmb92.00): 2Q23: Miss on margins but beat on revenue. Maintain BUY. Cut target price to Rmb92.00. Frontage Hol...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anhui Conch (914 HK/BUY/HK$22.00/Target: HK$28.30) 1H23: In line; industry-leading performance. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$22.35/Target: HK$26.90) 1H23: In line; gas sales growth offset by weak new connections. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/BUY/Rmb107.50/Target: Rmb138.00) 2Q23: Margin a key concern. EVE Energy (300014 HK/BUY/Rmb48.60/Target: Rmb92.00) 2Q23: Miss on margins but beat on revenue. Maintain BUY. Cut target price to Rmb92.00. Frontage H...
We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the baijiu sector, given the defensiveness of the premium segment. Downgrade the beer sector to MARKET WEIGHT, as we believe that concerns on the weak sales momentum in 2Q23 have not been fully reflected, though share prices of the beer companies under our coverage have corrected by 10.3-11.5% since early-May 23. We prefer Moutai (600519 CH) in the baijiu sector and CR Beer (291 HK) in the beer sector.
We expect to see periodical opportunities in the following months due to the slow pace of consumption recovery and lack of incremental funds. We suggest paying more attention when the share prices dip to a low level that is close to the bottoms in Apr/Oct-Nov 22. We are confident on domestic sportswear leaders’ future growth from the increasing demand for professional sports products against the partially recovered purchasing power. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
In spite of the limited funds in the market, we believe that consumer names’ investment opportunities still exist after share prices factored in rational expectations. We expect players with high earnings visibility and/or faster-than-expected growth pace (ie Moutai, Anta and CR Beer) to remain attractive for investment against a relatively weak consumption recovery background. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
While we think the road ahead to an overall consumption recovery is still bumpy despite the RSV pickup in 2M23, we are upbeat on the wealthy group’s sustainable consumption ability and the future growth of China’s luxury and duty-free markets. We believe the duty-free market will grow at a faster pace than the overall luxury market in China. CTGDF will be the largest beneficiary of the government’s intention to nurture it into a super strong duty-free leader globally. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the ...
Concerns on the household segment’s excess deposits continued into 2023 after the peak of its incremental deposits of Rmb17,840b in 2022. However, we expect gradual consumer spending recovery ahead as evidenced in 2021 given the easing of the pandemic and the recovery of consumer confidence. We attribute the share price corrections to the weak sentiment on overall consumption situations, but stay positive on the improving fundamentals. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
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