Japan’s mobile sector accelerated again in Q4 and we think is heading to above inflation. With both KDDI and DCM recently announcing price increases the environment is increasingly benign and should be helped by NTT’s recent acquisition of SBI Sumishin Net Bank. Our recent trip to Japan highlighted how positive the environment is; NTT stays our preferred pick, with KDDI closely behind.
As has been widely rumoured, NTT has offered to acquire up to 66% of SBI Sumishin Bank (7163-JP), in a bid to strengthen its financial services offering. The offer price (¥3,615) represents a 10% premium to yesterday’s price, but actually around 10% below today’s closing price.
We met with all 3 of the incumbent Japanese Telcos & Rakuten in Tokyo last week, as well as visiting Osaka to talk to NTT in more depth about IOWN. Overall, we remain bullish on Japanese telcos operationally and buyers of all three incumbents. NTT remains our top pick followed by KDDI.
As rumoured, NTT has offered to buy out the minorities (~42.3%) of NTT Data via a tender offer, at a 34% premium, or ¥4,000 per share. This is a slightly lower premium than we would have expected and implies a transaction value for the minority stake of ¥2.4tn (USD 16.5bn). Quick thoughts below.
Aggregate service revenue trended better on higher contribution from non-mobile, coupled with mobile improvement. Industry mobile was primarily driven by Softbank’s outperformance. Q3 EBITDA dropped on higher mobile marketing costs at NTT which the company seeks to offset through cost efficiencies. DOCOMO is the clear mobile underperformer, but we believe expectations for Fixed recovery is still low, plus there is IOWN optionality. NTT remains our preferred pick.
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After 3 good years, 2024 was not great for the Japanese incumbents; with KDDI and SoftBank rising modestly and NTT falling, but all underperforming the Nikkei. In our view, risk is rising in Mobile, although we continue to see the sector as fundamentally undervalued. Rakuten performed well in 2024, but this was really to do with balance sheet risk easing on the back of cost cutting/refinancing rather than better traction in Mobile.
Service revenue slowed for the incumbents but stayed in the low-single digit band, with Softbank still ahead followed by NTT. Mobile divergence continues to play out with SB leading the pack and is likely to remain so in our view. Industry EBITDA improved as NTT inflected to growth and led to a strong EBIT beat this quarter.
PLANO, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- , a global leader in healthcare IT, and Duke Health, a world-class academic and healthcare system, are collaborating to create a highly interactive and technologically advanced model for augmented home care delivery. This new home-care model will integrate multiple technologies, including a GenAI-driven virtual agent from Ellipsis Health, automation, device interoperability, remote patient monitoring and a patient app and portal. The solution will keep medical staff in direct contact with the patient to ensure a human is always in the loop while allowing patien...
We met with all 3 of the incumbent Japanese Telcos & Rakuten in Tokyo this week. Every time we visit, we are reminded of how much better the telco industry is in Japan vs other DMs, as the MNOs continue to expand their scope of operations beyond traditional telco driving higher returns and growth.
PLANO, Texas & BROWNSVILLE, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- a global digital business and IT services leader, has been selected by the , to deploy NTT DATA’s Smart Solutions and Private 5G (P5G) wireless connectivity. The city seeks to enhance citizen services, increase public safety, achieve sustainability and effectively manage growth by leveraging real-time data analytics and AI empowered by a seamless and secure wireless network. “The future is coming to life in Brownsville today as we partner with NTT DATA to set a new standard for smart, connected and sustainable cities,” said John Cowen, Jr...
Incumbents led a faster service revenue growth in Q1 driven by non-mobile, with Softbank ahead. Industry mobile growth kept steady but the continued divergence in mobile trend between NTT and peers appears to confirm the benefits of integrated financial services. Softbank was the notable share gainer this quarter (1.1% MSR gain sequentially), having grown its mobile ARPU for the first time since FY19.
NTT reported before close today and while revenue was ahead of estimates and guidance, operating income and profit were largely in line with its full year guidance. In contrast to peers, Mobile performance is lagging with ARPU trend not recovering. Separately, the company announced a buyback up to ¥ 200bn (US$ 1.37bn), a positive given the stock’s YTD performance.
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