In this first take following tonight’s results, we touch on: 1. $56B floor for 2024 capex is better than feared 2. Gen AI at AWS is a “multi-billion dollar business” 3. Retail margin expansion continues, as faster can be cheaper 4. Gen AI in Retail reducing seller friction; no meaningful insights on Rufus 5. Debt repayment leads FCF uses, no sign of capital returns, as expected
What’s New: We review the setup for the stock and key controversies, including: 1. Revenue growth at AWS and the impact of egress fee elimination and gen AI revenues 2. Progress on retail margins and expected future path, including International 3. Potential new disclosures or capital allocation changes, including capex 4. Cost-cutting across the organization and AMZN’s philosophy of experimentation We also review what to listen for on the earnings call, our top questions for management, and pot...
Our target price increases to $200 from $185 on higher estimates. Investment Thesis: Sentiment on GOOGL continues to improve markedly, as the new dividend, solid topline results and strong margins more than compensated for higher capex.
Our target price declines to $580 from $600 on lower estimates. Investment Thesis: META may be in the penalty box for a few quarters as consensus estimates come in, and catalysts get more likely going into September events (Connect, Conversations). We remain Buy rated and would build positions near-term, then accumulate more aggressively as catalysts approach.
What’s New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we touch on: 1. Search remains strong but begins lapping contribution from APAC-based retailers 2. The dividend finally arrives (plus another $70B share buyback authorization) 3. No surprise, Capex commentary implies 2024 full year figure well above consensus. 4. Cloud + YouTube = $100B run-rate at YE2024; our estimate is slightly higher 5. Continued progress on cost optimization
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