reports
Cargills(Ceylon) Plc: 2 directors
Two Directors at Cargills(Ceylon) Plc bought 700,000 shares at 330.000LKR. The significance rating of the trade was 78/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...
- Naveed Majeed
Sri Lanka: Equity Strategy - Deep Value Unveiled As Hyperinflation Sub...
* As hyperinflationary dynamics begin to subside, the residual effect has unveiled a large dislocation in valuations of listed domestic players. * Steep price increases taken by domestic firms have been more than enough to offset a decline in volumes over 2022, resulting in strong revenue and earnings growth to new highs, despite a deteriorating macro picture. With the expansion in bottom line to new highs, it is our view that valuations need to adjust accordingly with the risk premium ...
JKH.N0000 JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS PLC
ACL.N0000 ACL CABLES
CARG.N0000 CARGILLS (CEYLON) PLC
CCS.N0000 CEYLON COLD STORES
CTC.N0000 CEYLON TOBACCO
DIST.N0000 DISTILLERIES CO. OF SRI LANKA PLC
LLUB.N0000 CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC
HHL.N0000 HEMAS HOLDINGS
LION.N0000 LION BREWERY
NEST.N0000 NESTLE LANKA
GLAS.N0000 PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC
- Naveed Majeed
Sri Lanka: Consumer Sector Update 2023 - The Dividends of Recovery
* Steep price increases taken by domestic retail and consumer firms in 2022 were more than enough to offset a decline in volumes, resulting in strong revenue and earnings growth. * We saw a similar outcome unfolding in Turkey last year, where hyperinflation in the country led to record revenue and earnings growth for supermarket chains and consumer companies. * Recent electricity tariff and PAYE tax increases are negative headwinds for overall consumption in the near-term, but mode...
- Naveed Majeed
Cargills (Ceylon): 1Q FY23 - Steady performance despite ongoing headwi...
We use a 3-stage DCF valuation and arrive at a fair value of LKR 255.00/share (+20.3% upside; +24.5% TSR). CARG reported an EPS of LKR 6.04 for 1Q FY23, down 13.1% QoQ (+206.1% YoY). Group revenues of LKR 48.0bn were up 17.5% QoQ (+63.0% YoY); looking ahead, we expect CARG to continue benefitting from key trends seen in 1Q. Accordingly, we expect 1) footfall conversion from the general trade channel and 2) rising prices of essentials to drive Retail revenues. In FMCG, limited availability and...
- Naveed Majeed
Cargills (Ceylon): 3Q FY22 - Price-led growth amid near term headwinds
We rollover valuations to FY23E, leading to a revised TP of LKR 240.00/share (-26.2% to old; +19.9% TSR). CARG reported an EPS for LKR 5.50 for 3Q FY22, significantly above our estimates for the quarter. 1) Strong seasonal demand and 2) improved consumer mobility led to volume growth across segments. CARG also took price increases to reflect rising cost pressures – we expect price increases to drive revenues heading into FY23E. Looking ahead, we remain cautious of 1) CARG’s exposure outside t...
- Naveed Majeed
Cargills (Ceylon): 1Q FY22 - Near term headwinds but poised for the lo...
We maintain our target price of LKR 325/share (+33.7% upside) and, including a DPS of LKR 7.00/share for FY22E, derive a TSR of +36.6%. BUY. CARG reported an EPS of LKR 1.97 for 1Q FY22, surpassing our estimate of LKR 0.84. Revenues came in at LKR 29.4bn, declining by just 1.9% QoQ (+29.1% YoY) despite the impact of lockdowns imposed to contain the 3rd wave of COVID-19. Looking ahead, we expect double-digit revenue growth for FY22E supported by 1) improving footfall to existing stores, 2) rap...
- Naveed Majeed
Cargills (Ceylon): 4Q FY21 - 1Q FY22E a blip; poised for recovery in F...
We maintain our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation-based target price at LKR 325/share. Including a dividend of LKR 7.00/share for FY22E, we derive a total return of +35.5%. BUY. CARG reported an adjusted EPS of LKR 6.60 for 4Q FY21, surpassing our estimate of LKR 4.34. Revenues came in at LKR 30.0bn for the quarter, down 2.2% QoQ (+6.6% YoY). Looking ahead, we expect strong revenue growth in FY22E supported by 1) a normalising consumer demand environment following vaccine rollouts and 2) CARG...
- Lakshini Fernando
Sri Lanka: Consumer SL - "Steady as she goes"; a sturdy rebound in 202...
We expect the consumer sector to see a steady recovery, supported by a gradual rebound in economic activity and income levels. The sector looks to provide more sustainable long term growth, rather than growth fueled by government concession to consumers. From a macro perspective, consumer demand and spending are slated to increase on the back of historically low interest rates and low consumption taxes. A domestic focused economic growth agenda would support higher labor demand, particular...
- Naveed Majeed
Cargills (Ceylon): Sri Lanka: CARG SL- 3Q FY21 - Investments in Retail...
We value CARG at LKR 325.00/share and, including a dividend of LKR 6.00/share, arrive at a total return of +37.9%. In 3Q FY21, CARG reported its highest quarterly EPS (since 2Q FY18) of LKR 3.98/share. Revenues were up 10.1% YoY to LKR 30.7bn, while EBIT came in at LKR 2.3bn and margins expanded 99bps YoY to 7.5%. In FY22E, we expect footfall and basket values to normalise at Retail with the easing of lockdowns and vaccine distribution in 2021. CARG plans to rapidly expand through its Food Ci...
- Mangalee Goonetilleke
Cargills (Ceylon): Demand to bounce back in 2Q; some caution ahead
Incorporating revisions to our estimates, we value CARG at LKR 190/share (previously LKR 226/share). Including a dividend of LKR 6.00/share, we expect a total return of +6.2%. We revise our rating to a HOLD from a BUY. CARG reported a 4Q FY20 recurring net profit to equity shareholders of LKR 988mn, up from LKR 346mn in 4Q FY19. Revenues were up ~20.0% YoY with EBIT doubling YoY and margins expanding by 3.1pp YoY. With CARG missing out on a key selling season in April and the lockdown being l...
- Mangalee Goonetilleke
Retail, FMCG key beneficiaries of spending pick-up; upgrade to Buy
We roll over our valuations to FY 21e and CARG is currently trading at 17.2x our FY 21e earnings, a c30.0% discount to its 3-year trading average. However, with growth in disposable income and expected demand expansion, we believe there is further upside to the stock. As such, including our estimate revisions and expected multiple expansion in FY 21e, our SOTP valuation-based TP goes to LKR 226/share (previously LKR 200/share). Including a DPS of LKR2.00, we expect a TSR of +16.9%. We revise ...
- Abdul Ariff
JKSB_Full Year Highlights_Cargills (Ceylon) PLC (CARG)_FY2017
Note Summary:Cargills (Ceylon) PLC reported full year earnings of Rs.2.14bn (+31.8% YoY) for FY2017, driven by topline growth (+18.6% YoY) and margin expansion (gross margin +0.7 ppt YoY to 11.9% and operating margin +1.2 ppt YoY to 6.0%). Group full year results include a one-off expense of Rs.132mn on restructuring of the property portfolio. Topline growth for the year was supported by favourable contributions from the Retail (+19.8% YoY), FMCG (+13.6% YoY) and Restaurant (+16.2% YoY) segments...
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
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