reports
- Guan An Tan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Transportation & Logistics: Tariff war posing significant uncert...
The tariff war poses significant uncertainties to global trade. Shipping and ports (MARKET WEIGHT) are impacted due to their high global trade exposure, though their subdued valuation implies limited downside risks. Cargo operations of airlines (UNDERWEIGHT) are hit by both higher tariffs and the US’ de minimis tax change, but weaker fuel prices would support airlines’ near-term earnings. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on domestic consumption-oriented logistics names, with JDL a top pick.
00293 CATHAY PACIFIC AIRWAYS LIMITED
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
AD2 AIR CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
0670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS H
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
- Guan An Tan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK): 2024: Results slightly miss our forec...
Cathay’s 2024 core net profit of HK$8.9b (+27.6% yoy) beat consensus estimates by 11.4% but slightly missed ours at 96.2%. The positives from better-than-expected pax yields in 2H24 were offset by negatives from higher staff costs and weaker fuel efficiency. 2025 earnings should stay largely flattish yoy, with subdued fuel prices balancing cargo headwinds from US-China trade tensions. Pax and cargo yields are expected to normalise further in 2025. Maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$11.20.
- Greater China Research Team
- Guan An Tan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
Greater China Daily: Thursday, March 13, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK/HOLD/HK$10.90/Target: HK$11.20) Page 2 Cathay’s 2024 core net profit of HK$8.9b (+27.6% yoy) beat consensus estimates by 11.4% but slightly missed ours at 96.2%. The positives from better-than-expected pax yields in 2H24 were offset by negatives from higher staff costs and weaker fuel efficiency. 2025 earnings should stay largely flattish yoy, with subdued fuel prices balancing cargo headwinds from US-China trade tensions. Pax and cargo yie...
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benyamin Mikael
- Guan An Tan
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jonathan Koh
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, March 13, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK/HOLD/HK$10.90/Target: HK$11.20) 2024: Results slightly miss our forecast but a solid beat of consensus estimates. Yields to moderate further in 2025. Maintain HOLD. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Rukun Raharja (RAJA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp2,260) Leveraging stability in oil & gas business. MALAYSIA Results Bermaz Auto (BAUTO MK/HOLD/RM1.04/Target: RM1.00) 9MFY25: Results below e...
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
RAJA RUKUN RAHARJA
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
6493 TTBIO
BBL BHP GROUP PLC
BAUTO BERMAZ AUTO BHD
KTB KONTOOR BRANDS
SCI SCI E&C
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
MXNU ELITE COMMERCIAL REIT MGNT PTE LTD
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
AKA A.K.A. BRANDS HOLDINGS
- Guan An Tan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK): Cathay’s stellar 2024 earnings perfor...
Having emerged from the pandemic, Cathay is set to deliver stellar core earnings of HK$9.2b (+32.7% yoy) in 2024, supported by still-elevated pax and cargo yields. While this level of earnings should not be taken as the norm, as intensifying competition and geopolitical uncertainties would drive the moderation of pax and cargo yields, we see a near-term trading opportunity as the street’s 2024 estimates appear conservative to us. Resume coverage on Cathay with a HOLD rating. Target price: HK$11....
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Greater China Research Team
- Guan An Tan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Thursday, March 6, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Highlights From The NPC China set a 5% yoy GDP growth target for 2025, backed by a 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio and "reasonably loose" monetary policy. For 2025, there will be Rmb1.3t in ultra-long special treasury bonds and Rmb4.4t in local government special bonds issuance. Overall, the focus is on supporting domestic demand and industrial upgrading, with a greater emphasis on improving implementation efficiency. Update Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK/HOLD/HK$10.76/Targe...
With a more favourable environment, CATHAY PACIFIC AIRWAYS improves to...
CATHAY PACIFIC AIRWAYS (HK), a company active in the Airlines industry, is favoured by a more supportive environment. The independent financial analyst theScreener has confirmed the fundamental rating of the title, which shows 3 out of 4 stars, as well as its unchanged, defensive market behaviour. The title leverages a more favourable environment and raises its general evaluation to Positive. As of the analysis date February 25, 2022, the closing price was HKD 7.06 and its potential was estimate...
- Ivan Su
Morningstar | HK Express Acquisition Confirmed; Cathay FVE Maintained ...
No-moat Cathay Pacific confirmed its plan to acquire low-cost-carrier, or LCC, Hong Kong Express, or HKE, for HKD 4.9 billion. The acquisition will be financed by roughly 46% cash on hand and 54% promissory notes. Ever since the rumor surfaced, we have said that Cathay Pacific will be a stronger company with a budget airline arm. HKE is the sole LCC based in Hong Kong, and its business perfectly complements that of legacy carrier Cathay. We are maintaining our HKD 12.20 fair value estimate for C...
- Ivan Su
HK Express Acquisition Confirmed; Cathay FVE Maintained Pending Releas...
No-moat Cathay Pacific confirmed its plan to acquire low-cost-carrier, or LCC, Hong Kong Express, or HKE, for HKD 4.9 billion. The acquisition will be financed by roughly 46% cash on hand and 54% promissory notes. Ever since the rumor surfaced, we have said that Cathay Pacific will be a stronger company with a budget airline arm. HKE is the sole LCC based in Hong Kong, and its business perfectly complements that of legacy carrier Cathay. We are maintaining our HKD 12.20 fair value estimate for C...
- Ivan Su
Morningstar | Uncertainties Around Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Cath...
Our HKD 12.20 fair value estimate and no-moat rating are unchanged after Cathay Pacific Airways reported full-year earnings of HKD 0.60 per share, in line with management’s prerelease figures. While the market reacted positively to the announcement, presumably due to higher-than-expected supply growth guidance for 2019, we do not believe new supply will be matched by demand in the near term. Our long-term thesis for the carrier remains in place, but we think the first half of 2019 will be a ch...
- Ivan Su
Morningstar | Uncertainties Around Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Cath...
Our HKD 12.20 fair value estimate and no-moat rating are unchanged after Cathay Pacific Airways reported full-year earnings of HKD 0.60 per share, in line with management’s prerelease figures. While the market reacted positively to the announcement, presumably due to higher-than-expected supply growth guidance for 2019, we do not believe new supply will be matched by demand in the near term. Our long-term thesis for the carrier remains in place, but we think the first half of 2019 will be a ch...
- Ivan Su
Uncertainties Around Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Cathay’s 2019 Ou...
Our HKD 12.20 fair value estimate and no-moat rating are unchanged after Cathay Pacific Airways reported full-year earnings of HKD 0.60 per share, in line with management’s prerelease figures. While the market reacted positively to the announcement, presumably due to higher-than-expected supply growth guidance for 2019, we do not believe new supply will be matched by demand in the near term. Our long-term thesis for the carrier remains in place, but we think the first half of 2019 will be a ch...
- Ivan Su
Morningstar | Cathay's Potential Acquisitions of HK Airlines and HK Ex...
Cathay Pacific said that it is in talks to acquire shares in both Hong Kong Express and Hong Kong Airlines from HNA Group. While no definitive agreement has been reached at the moment, we think the potential acquisition will not only enlarge Cathay’s footprint in its Hong Kong hub but also expand the airline’s reach into the low-cost carrier, or LCC, market--something we believe is long overdue. With no formal bid being announced, we are maintaining our no-moat rating and fair value estimate...
- Ivan Su
Cathay's Potential Acquisitions of HK Airlines and HK Express Make Str...
Cathay Pacific said that it is in talks to acquire shares in both Hong Kong Express and Hong Kong Airlines from HNA Group. While no definitive agreement has been reached at the moment, we think the potential acquisition will not only enlarge Cathay’s footprint in its Hong Kong hub but also expand the airline’s reach into the low-cost carrier, or LCC, market--something we believe is long overdue. With no formal bid being announced, we are maintaining our no-moat rating and fair value estimate...
- Ivan Su
Morningstar | Despite Cathay's Unexpected Jump in Profit, We Are Maint...
No-moat Cathay Pacific released a profit alert on Feb. 20, guiding a net profit of approximately HKD 2.3 billion versus Morningstar’s estimate of HKD 893 million. This implies the airline made roughly HKD 2.6 billion in the second half of the year. While we applaud the carrier’s efforts in turning profitable after two years of losses, our long-term assumptions for Cathay are unchanged based on this announcement. As a result, we are maintaining our fair value estimate of HKD 12.20 on the oper...
- Ivan Su
Morningstar | Despite Cathay's Unexpected Jump in Profit, We Are Maint...
No-moat Cathay Pacific released a profit alert on Feb. 20, guiding a net profit of approximately HKD 2.3 billion versus Morningstar’s estimate of HKD 893 million. This implies the airline made roughly HKD 2.6 billion in the second half of the year. While we applaud the carrier’s efforts in turning profitable after two years of losses, our long-term assumptions for Cathay are unchanged based on this announcement. As a result, we are maintaining our fair value estimate of HKD 12.20 on the oper...
- Ivan Su
Despite Cathay's Unexpected Jump in Profit, We Are Maintaining FVE at ...
No-moat Cathay Pacific released a profit alert on Feb. 20, guiding a net profit of approximately HKD 2.3 billion versus Morningstar’s estimate of HKD 893 million. This implies the airline made roughly HKD 2.6 billion in the second half of the year. While we applaud the carrier’s efforts in turning profitable after two years of losses, our long-term assumptions for Cathay are unchanged based on this announcement. As a result, we are maintaining our fair value estimate of HKD 12.20 on the oper...
- Ivan Su
Morningstar | New Morningstar Analyst Report for Cathay Pacific Airway...
Cathay Pacific is a premium legacy carrier with an above-average passenger load factor (84%-85%, versus 82%-83% for its key competitors) amid pricing wars and volatile global economic conditions. The company was among the first legacy carriers to roll out premium economy class, which caters to customers that find business class too expensive but are still willing to pay extra for a superior in-flight experience. Despite the historical success, this strategy is facing some headwinds with the late...
- Ivan Su
New Morningstar Analyst Report for Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd
Despite a recent drop in oil price, we maintain our fair value estimate of HKD 12.20 on no-moat Cathay Pacific. The carrier has locked in roughly 30% of its expected fiscal 2019 fuel consumption at Brent price of around USD 65 per barrel. Thus, Cathay is in a less favorable position to benefit from near-term declines in oil price. While shares for the carrier are trading at a 12% discount to our fair value estimate, we recommend investors wait for a larger margin of safety before investing in Ca...
- Ivan Su
Morningstar | Cathay Pacific Remains Fairly Valued Despite Recent Drop...
Despite a recent drop in oil price, we maintain our fair value estimate of HKD 12.20 on no-moat Cathay Pacific. The carrier has locked in roughly 30% of its expected fiscal 2019 fuel consumption at Brent price of around USD 65 per barrel. Thus, Cathay is in a less favorable position to benefit from near-term declines in oil price. While shares for the carrier are trading at a 12% discount to our fair value estimate, we recommend investors wait for a larger margin of safety before investing in Ca...
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