Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Our Nov 25 Alpha Picks portfolio returned 2.2% mom, in line with the STI, while weighted portfolios outperformed. Gains were led by CSE, ASL and MPM. For Dec 25, we add KEP, UGAI and SATS, and remove FRKN, UMS and SIA. The refreshed portfolio remains positioned to benefit from ongoing EQDP-driven interest in small-/mid-cap names.
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...
Our Alpha Picks portfolio gained 8.5% mom in Oct 25, outperforming the STI’s 3.0%. Strength came from MPM, RSTON and CSE. For Nov 25, we add CIT and ASL as BUYs and introduce SIA as a short candidate. The portfolio remains poised for expected EQDP-driven flows into small-/mid-cap names in the next few months.
Greater China Initiation Coverage | Metasurface Technologies Holdings (8637 HK/BUY/HK1.48/Target: HK2.90) Metasurface is set to benefit from robust investment in the semi supply chain. As chip fabrication grows in complexity, more time is required to fabricate wafers and more wafer fabrication equipment is needed. Aerospace engineering is set to drive long-term growth as airline capacity continues to face shortages, forcing airlines to rely on their existing fleets and bo...
Attractive yield differentials. With Singapore government bond yields trending lower, the yield differential between fixed income and equities has narrowed in 2025, thus reinforcing the relative appeal of companies offering high, sustainable dividend payouts. Equity yields in the 4-6% range now offer a compelling pickup versus the 10-year Singapore Government Bond yield (1.8579% as at 4 Sep 25), while also providing potential for capital gains. In our view, this widening yield gap should support...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results City Developments (CIT SP/BUY/S$6.80/Target: S$8.50): 1H25: Strong divestment momentum offsets operational headwinds. Upgrade to BUY with higher target price of S$8.50. Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP/BUY/S$4.06/Target: S$4.58): 1QFY26: Robust results on the back of EBIT improvement from Optus and NCS while Airtel and AIS lifted regional earnings. UMS Integration (UMSH SP/BUY/S$1.48/Target:S$1.73): 2Q25: Strong core earnings growth and positive outlook; exploring bo...
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Credit demand remains weak, though money supply improved. Results Nexteer Automotive Group (1316 HK/BUY/HK$6.92/Target: HK$10.00) 1H25: Earnings beat estimates on margins. Upgrade from HOLD to BUY. Raise target price to HK$10.00 Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$586.00/Target: HK$736.00) 2Q25: Resilient results; unfolding AI monetisation in online games...
1H25 PATMI fell 4% yoy to S$91m due to forex losses and higher interest costs, though excluding forex impact, profit would be stronger. Divestments exceeded expectations, with proceeds earmarked for a special dividend in Feb 25. Property development surged on strong sales, while hotels and investment properties saw weakness from forex and cost pressures. High gearing persists but planned asset sales may stabilise the balance sheet. We upgrade to BUY with a higher target price of S$8.50.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...
The selloff driven by the US’ unprecedented and perplexing tariff plans has liberated many investors of profits this year. Given the fluidity of market conditions, we highlight a number of domestic-focused stocks such as CENT, CD, DFI, HLA, PANU, PROP, RFMD, SSG and SIE as well as Singapore-focused REITS such as CDLHT, FEHT, FCT, KREIT, LREIT and PREIT. In addition, the MAS’ equity market review should inject much needed liquidity in 2H25. We lower our STI target to 3,720 (previously 4,115).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking: 4Q24 round-up: New era of returning excess capital and higher payout ratio. Results City Developments (CIT SP/HOLD/S$5.12/Target: S$4.60): 2024: Weaker-than-expected results overshadowed by family and leadership tussle. Downgrade to HOLD with a lower fair value of S$4.60. CSE Global (CSE SP/BUY/S$0.465/Target: S$0.610): 2024: Strong earnings beat; gearing up for expansion. Food Empire (FEH SP/BUY/S$1.07/Target: S$1.20): 2024: Results above expectations; healthy p...
GREATER CHINA Economics Hong Kong Budget 2025-26 The budget balances fiscal discipline with strategic growth initiatives. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$64.05/Target: HK$80.00) 4Q24: Earnings disappoint; mainstream tools recovering in 2025 but visibility remains low. Maintain BUY. Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.66/Target: HK$13.30) 4Q24: Results miss slightly; CEO change and increased shareho...
CDL’s 2024 results missed our and consensus estimates. However, this was overshadowed by news of a very public leadership tussle that has caused us to downgrade the stock to a HOLD. While the company has extremely valuable assets in Singapore and globally, we believe the stock will likely find it difficult to perform given this overhang. We lower the target price to S$4.60.
Clearly concerned about the direction of its economy, the Chinese government released a raft of stimulus measures last week that seemingly changed investor sentiment towards the Hong Kong and China markets overnight. While structural challenges remain, we highlight 14 stocks that have meaningful revenue exposure to China should these stimulus measures prove to be a game-changer. Our top picks for 2H24 remain CLI, GENS, KEP, MINT, OCBC, SCI, STE, VMS and YZJSGD.
After Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on 23 August, we see a turning point starting with a US Fed rate cut in Sep 24 and lower rates heading into 2025. In the Singapore market, REITs and the property sector should benefit, as should highly-geared companies and those looking to recycle capital. Our current forecasts have incorporated lower NIMs for banks which we believe are protected by their high dividend yields.
GREATER CHINA Results Nexteer (1316 HK/SELL/HK$2.89/Target: HK$1.50) 1H24: Earnings miss estimates on revenue. Maintain SELL. Cut target price from HK$2.20 to HK$1.50. Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$373.80/Target: HK$490.00) 2Q24: Solid margin expansion; reaccelerated online games revenue growth. Update Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb21.38/Target: Rmb30.00) AI business continues to accelerate, GB200 scheduled to ship i...
CLI and CDL both reported weaker-than-expected results with the latter’s results hit by the timing of revenue recognition as well as a 25% yoy increase in financing cost for 1H24. While both saw continued strength in their respective lodging/hospitality segments in 1H24, CLI’s capital recycling targets appear to be on track versus delays for CDL. Maintain our BUY recommendations: We prefer CLI (target price: S$4.04) over CDL (target price lowered to S$7.00). Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector.
Two Directors at City Developments bought/maiden bought 140,000 shares at between 5.620SGD and 5.800SGD. The significance rating of the trade was 90/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's di...
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