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Lindsay Whipp
  • Lindsay Whipp

PSA IT Services: Japanese Banking Industry’s Investment in DX Deepens

The most recent quarterly earnings for the system integrators highlighted the sustained increase in spending by Japanese financial institutions over recent quarters, as they seek to improve products and services amid a shift in interest rates and the introduction of tax-exempt investment accounts, and as interest in digital currencies grows. Analyst Lindsay Whipp reviews some of the DX spending undertaken by Japan’s banking industry and highlights beneficiaries'.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

SoftBank and the U.S. government shoring up Intel?

Intel and SoftBank announced yesterday evening that SoftBank will acquire $2bn of newly issued Intel shares. At the same time reports of the U.S. government taking a direct stake in Intel are becoming more tangible. Please see the link below for our take.​

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Japanese Telcos – Q1 FY25 review: Steady start, all eyes on Mobile pri...

Revenue trends were steady as the softer mobile growth was offset by improvement in non-mobile. Softbank remained the outperformer, but this has already been baked in as expectations for Group revenue are sitting ahead of guidance by 3%.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

NTT (Buy, TP: ¥215, +40%) Q1 FY25 Quick Take: Soft start; awaiting fo...

NTT printed a rather soft set of Q1 results as Mobile was weaker and Global Solutions was impacted by FX weakness in its Overseas arm. The recovery in Regional Communications offered some encouragement and is likely to remain so as the firm transits from Copper to Fibre over the long run.

Chris Hoare ... (+2)
  • Chris Hoare
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Softbank Corp (Buy, TP: ¥270, +19%) Q1 FY25 Quick Take: Another decen...

Softbank Corp reported a relatively in-line topline and EBITDA whilst headline EBIT was 4% ahead of expectations. Trends in mobile service revenue slowed with continued momentum in net additions (in particular Y!Mobile) offsetting the marginal decline in mobile ARPU.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

KDDI (Buy, ¥3,150, +24%) Q1 FY25 Quick Take: Modest start but managem...

Q1 results were a touch softer than expected as trends in Business moderated. Tone remains encouraging for mobile to further accelerate in the second half as the impact of new mobile plans and price increase begin to flow through. Guidance remains unchanged. We continue to see good upside surprise in Mobile and stay Buyers with a ¥3,150 price target.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Japanese Telcos Q4 FY24 review: Inflationary telco market

Japan’s mobile sector accelerated again in Q4 and we think is heading to above inflation. With both KDDI and DCM recently announcing price increases the environment is increasingly benign and should be helped by NTT’s recent acquisition of SBI Sumishin Net Bank. Our recent trip to Japan highlighted how positive the environment is; NTT stays our preferred pick, with KDDI closely behind.

Lindsay Whipp
  • Lindsay Whipp

PSA IT Services: Share Price Appreciation, Confident FY25 Forecasts an...

Lindsay Whipp reviews the recent earnings performance of the IT Sector and assesses their outlook for FY25. Orders are strong, backlogs are growing and there are some attractive valuations – particularly for IIJ.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

NTT (Buy, TP: ¥215, +38%) NTT to acquire SBI Sumishin Bank and a mino...

As has been widely rumoured, NTT has offered to acquire up to 66% of SBI Sumishin Bank (7163-JP), in a bid to strengthen its financial services offering. The offer price (¥3,615) represents a 10% premium to yesterday’s price, but actually around 10% below today’s closing price.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Takeaways from Meetings with the Japanese Telcos + Rakuten in Tokyo. D...

We met with all 3 of the incumbent Japanese Telcos & Rakuten in Tokyo last week, as well as visiting Osaka to talk to NTT in more depth about IOWN. Overall, we remain bullish on Japanese telcos operationally and buyers of all three incumbents. NTT remains our top pick followed by KDDI.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

KDDI (Buy, ¥3,150, +22%) Q4 24 Quick Take: Good revenue growth; big b...

KDDI reported a better top-line, and generous shareholder remuneration. However, guidance is largely in line and leaves us wondering what happens after the company hits it in March ’26. Within this space, NTT remains our preferred pick on potential upside catalysts (IOWN revenue optionality, NTT Data and Fixed line rebound) while KDDI remains a close second with a ¥3,150 price target.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

NTT (Buy, TP: ¥215, +38%) Q4 FY24 Quick Take: Topline ahead but profi...

NTT reported results today, following yesterday’s announcement to buy out the minorities of NTT Data. Revenue was better than anticipated with Global Solutions performing well and there were signs of improving mobile trends.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Softbank Corp (Buy, TP: ¥270, +22%) Q4 24 Quick Take: Mobile up-tradi...

Softbank Corp delivered a decent EBITDA and EBIT beat in Q4 led by steady topline growth and cost reductions. Mobile service revenue was very strong and accelerated in Q4, supported by net additions whilst mobile ARPU was relatively stable. Despite FY25 guidance being revised higher, it was still 4-5% below expectations at the EBIT and earnings line.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

NTT (Buy, TP: ¥215, +44%) NTT offers to buy out NTT Data – Quick thou...

As rumoured, NTT has offered to buy out the minorities (~42.3%) of NTT Data via a tender offer, at a 34% premium, or ¥4,000 per share. This is a slightly lower premium than we would have expected and implies a transaction value for the minority stake of ¥2.4tn (USD 16.5bn). Quick thoughts below.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Tariffs: Smartphones, PC, semicap equipment, and others excluded - Our...

As a follow-up to the baseline thesis we published on Friday about U.S. tariffs, we provide below our assessment of latest developments announced on Friday.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Getting over Tariffs – Step back. Rethink. Move on.

Swings observed in the last 10 days has been second to none. The Great Financial Crisis and Covid didn’t get us in a worst spot. Make no mistake: The markets are panicking today even more than when the world came to a COVID standstill, with the individual contributors to the vast majority of the world’s GDP locked down. How reasonable is that? Very little, in our view. The polarization of the political landscape has created a global brain freeze. Few analyses calmly assess the U.S. administrati...

Lindsay Whipp
  • Lindsay Whipp

PSA IT Services: Sector Strategy

Tariffs and the threat of a global economic downturn make the case for owning IT service companies even stronger, argues analyst Lindsay Whipp in this report, with productivity enhancement tools potentially to be in even greater demand.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

SoftBank investing $40bn in OpenAI: Our take.

Softbank’s late generative AI strategy is taking shape in an interesting way. For our initial thoughts on the matter, see the attached article.

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Strategy: Japan Stock Market Quarterly for 2025 Q2

In this quarterly strategy report, we look to evaluate where we are with regards the bull market conditions, and where those indicators might be headed, factoring in the downside risks, from Trump tariffs and the US economy, BoJ actions, Japanese earnings and valuations.

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