reports
- Chris Hoare
Rakuten (Reduce, TP: ¥400, -47%) Not on track to hit breakeven targets
Rakuten has seen stronger customer growth recently. In this note, we analyse whether Rakuten is on track to hit its target 8-10m customers and ¥2,500-3,000 ARPU by year end, and what this means for Rakuten’s target EBITDA breakeven by Dec 2024.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Asia Telco Tour Feedback, Improving growth, ROCE and shareholder remun...
We ran our Asia Telco tour last week. This time we met 12 companies in 3 countries (Korea, Japan, Thailand). Telco share prices in all 3 of these countries have been pretty strong recently as telcos continue to benefit from generally positive themes: growth, return on capital and shareholder remuneration are all typically improving.
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos Takeaways from Meetings with the Japanese Telcos + Ra...
We met with all 3 of the incumbent Japanese Telcos & Rakuten in Tokyo this week. Every time we visit we are reminded of how much better the telco industry is in Japan vs other DMs and we continue to be of the view that Japanese incumbents are in a “Golden Age”; ARPU inflection is being held back a little we think by voice weakness post-Covid but is likely to come through over time. The integration of financial services though is a game changer and means SB is the likely medium term “winner” in t...
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos Q3 FY23 review: Gearing up for a strong Q4
Service revenue trend was softer on slower non-mobile this quarter. Collectively, mobile revenue trend (Consumer + Enterprise) maintained its second consecutive of growth and operators are implying a strong Q4. For instance, Softbank is expecting Consumer MSR to rebound this year (at flat YTD); NTT implying a strong Q4 EBIT on cost reductions and streamlining of non-core assets like Real Estate.
- Chris Hoare
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Market Strategy: How Japan Transformed from a Bear Market to a Bul...
In our 2010 Japan Perspective, written close to the nadir of the bear market, we discussed what was wrong with Japan, but also what it was starting to do right. Fourteen years on, the Nikkei 225 - though not yet Topix - has hit a new all-time high. This report looks at how Japan built on those things that were going right, while also starting to address what else needed to be done, and looks at whether more is needed to be done if the market rally is to continue from here.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
9433 KDDI CORPORATION
6954 FANUC CORPORATION
8001 ITOCHU CORPORATION
6752 PANASONIC CORPORATION
6971 KYOCERA CORPORATION
8031 MITSUI & CO. LTD
4183 MITSUI CHEMICALS INC.
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
6701 NEC CORP.
5401 NIPPON STEEL CORP.
4063 SHIN-ETSU CHEMICAL CO LTD
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
6201 TOYOTA INDUSTRIES CORP.
7203 TOYOTA MOTOR CORP.
7270 SUBARU CORP
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
BRK.A BERKSHIRE HATH-A
APPL APPLE INC - APPL - US
9810 NIPPON STEEL TRADING CORP
- Chris Hoare
Rakuten (Reduce, TP: ¥400, -45%) Why did the stock go up 16%? Is this...
Such a sharp rally in a stock that we are negative on impels us to question our thesis. In this short note we try to address the question of whether Rakuten is at a turning point, or, in other words: “Are we wrong to be negative”. Plus model update.
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos What if Japan introduces Spectrum Auctions? Could it ...
Wireless spectrum is one of the most valuable commodities in the telecoms market. Japanese telcos have previously been issued spectrum for free. But what if it starts to be auctioned? In this note, we use our new proprietary SpectrumHub Global Database to calculate the likely cost of mmWave spectrum in Japan. We also look at the total value of all spectrum held by the incumbents, to address the implications if Japan were to move to auction for all spectrum.
- Chris Hoare
Rakuten (Reduce, TP: ¥400, -37%) Q4 23 Quick Take: Mixed - better on ...
Rakuten’s topline trend was slower but overall losses eased further on lower mobile losses. Despite this, EBIT was still behind consensus this quarter (Q4: -¥33bn vs ¥-28bn consensus). Non-GAAP Mobile loss improved from ¥81bn to ¥71bn but the loss was still higher than expectations.
- Chris Hoare
KDDI (Buy, TP: ¥6,600, +40%) KDDI planning a tender offer to take Law...
KDDI plans to launch a ¥500bn (USD 3.37bn) tender offer for Lawson, Japan's third largest convenience franchise. If successful, the move will see KDDI own 50% of Lawson, up from 2.1% today, with the other remaining half owned by Mitsubishi Corporation. On our estimates, the deal is expected to be 3.4% EPS accretive on an annual basis.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
KDDI (Buy, TP: ¥6,600, +34%) Q3 23 Quick Take: KPIs moving in the rig...
KDDI reported results today, in line with consensus on revenue and EBIT. Revenue growth slowed primarily driven by lower Energy and roaming revenue (which were known about), partially offset by strength in Enterprise. Mobile KPIs continue to move in the right direction with strong subs growth and sequential ARPU improvement again (yoy trends impacted by a weak Q2 last year).
- Chris Hoare
Rakuten (Reduce, TP: ¥400, -39%) Strong headwinds below EBIT
We update our model for better subscriber figures, offset by increased interest payments as Rakuten refinances. With minority interest also rising driven by the sale of stakes in Rakuten Bank and Securities, Rakuten’s P&L is facing strong headwinds even as mobile improves and we see the Group overall loss-making at net profit level until 2030 as a result. We stay at Reduce and our price target stays at ¥400.
- Chris Hoare
Rakuten (Reduce, TP: ¥400, -41%) Rakuten starts refinancing debt moun...
Rakuten announced plans to issue USD denominated senior notes due 2027 to repurchase up to USD 1 billion of its USD denominated debt due this year. The company also stated intentions to repurchase its JPY senior bonds (c. USD 712m due in 2024) in the near future.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos At a MAJOR inflection as Fintech integration drives A...
Something significant has shifted in Japan. The telcos, and especially KDDI and SB Corp are now using their strength in financial services to drive customers towards unlimited offers. The result is likely to be an acceleration of ARPU recovery, and suggests we are at an important inflection point. We lift ARPU forecasts and price targets. SoftBank Corp is our new top pick, PT ¥2,500, from ¥2,200.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Japanese Telcos Q2 FY23 review: Better all around, driven by ARPU inf...
Japanese telcos delivered better service revenue growth in Q2, driven by an inflection in mobile and non-mobile segments. Mobile performance for KDDI and Softbank were very encouraging, with the former hitting inflection on both mobile revenue (expected) and ARPU growth (earlier than expected) while Softbank witnessed an earlier than expected bottoming of MSR and upgraded its full year ARPU guidance from ¥3,680 to ¥3,720. Across the board, EBITDA trend was also better.
- Chris Hoare
Rakuten (Reduce, TP: ¥400, -27%) Rakuten, Q3 23 Quick take – Selling ...
Rakuten’s Q3 trends were weaker in aggregate, with disappointing figures from mobile and overall losses were worse than expected. Importantly, Mobile loss barely improved, from ¥82bn to ¥81bn, and sequential MNO revenue remains weak in our view; only up by ¥2.1bn (Q3: +¥1.8bn).
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.