Company Update | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt13.40/Target: Bt18.00) Management expects 2026 revenue to grow 4-6%, with gross margin improving by 20-40bp. If BJC achieves this target, it would imply a 5-9% upside to earnings. Energy price risk in 1Q26 should be limited, as lower soda ash costs support packaging margins while Big C can offset higher logistics costs through higher distribution income. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt18.00.
Top Stories Company Update | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt13.40/Target: Bt18.00) Management expects 2026 revenue to grow 4-6%, with gross margin improving by 20-40bp. If BJC achieves this target, it would imply a 5-9% upside to earnings. Energy price risk in 1Q26 should be limited, as lower soda ash costs support packaging margins while Big C can offset higher logistics costs through higher distribution income. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt18.00.
Greater China Economics | Inflation In February, China's headline CPI inflation rose to 1.3% yoy, driven by Chinese New Year effects, with food prices up 1.7% yoy. Core inflation climbed to 1.8% yoy, led by services inflation. PPI deflation eased to -0.9% yoy (better than the expected -1.1%), reflecting moderating producer goods price deflation amid rising commodity costs and government oversight. This trend should support positive CPI readings and help curb deflationary expectations. Sector Up...
Company Results | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt15.90/Target: Bt18.00) BJC’s earnings came in in line with our and consensus estimates at Bt1.3b, dropping 21% yoy. The earnings outlook in 1Q26 remains challenging as qtd SSSG has fallen 3.3% yoy. We expect 2Q26 to be a recovery point. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt18.00.
Top Stories Company Results | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt15.90/Target: Bt18.00) BJC’s earnings came in in line with our and consensus estimates at Bt1.3b, dropping 21% yoy. The earnings outlook in 1Q26 remains challenging as qtd SSSG has fallen 3.3% yoy. We expect 2Q26 to be a recovery point. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt18.00. Company Results | COM7 (COM7 TB/BUY/Bt24.80/Target: Bt30.00) 4Q25 earnings were at Bt1.2b, increasing 17% yoy and 38% qoq, in line with our and consensus for...
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer The CNY consumption data exhibited accelerated growth momentum compared with the two Golden Weeks last year, which we view as early signs of a broader consumption recovery. We favour companies benefitting from: a) segments showing initial signals of recovery, such as restaurants; b) exposure to China’s structural consumption growth drivers, particularly in services and experiential consumption; c) potential policy tailwinds; and d) overseas growth. Our pref...
Company Update | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt14.50/Target: Bt18.00) BJC’s non-retail businesses delivered strong performances, driven by margin improvement in all segments. Qtd SSSG has improved despite a high base in 1Q25. If the MMVN acquisition is completed, it will be accretive to 2026 earnings by 4%. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt18.00. We expect fewer earnings downgrades in 2026.
Top Stories Company Results | Siam Cement (SCC TB/BUY/Bt216.00/Target: Bt250.00) SCC reported a net loss of Bt3.69b in 4Q25, with losses increasing both qoq and yoy, mainly due to impairment losses and stock losses. Core earnings in 4Q25 also turned to a loss, driven by larger losses in the petrochemical business. SCC announced a 2H25 dividend of Bt2.50/share. We expect core earnings to recover qoq in 1Q26, supported by the cement and packaging businesses. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt250.00. ...
Greater China Company Results | New Oriental Education (EDU US/BUY/US$58.95/Target: US$68.00) EDU delivered a solid 2QFY26 results beat. Revenue grew 15% yoy to US$1,191m, 3% higher than our and consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net profit came in at US$73m, beating our and consensus estimates by 27-30% due to ongoing prudent cost control, while net margin expanded 2ppt yoy to 6% for 2QFY26. EDU expects 3QFY26 revenue to grow at an intact 11-14% yoy to US$1,313.2m-1,348.7m, in line with consensus fo...
Company Update | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt14.50/Target: Bt18.00) We are more positive on the MMVN acquisition. Management expects the transaction to generate synergy value of Bt370m-500m over 2026-28. MMVN provisioning in 4Q25 will not impact BJC’s shareholder equity. Management plans to divest non-performing assets, with the proceeds to be fully used for debt repayment. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of Bt18.00 (previously Bt24.00).
Top Stories Strategy | Quantitative Screening: Searching For Cash Flow Generators We screened the SET100 Index for companies generating free cash flow yields above 10%, while also exhibiting relatively high or comparable FCF-to-enterprise value ratios. We view stocks with strong cash flow generation and inexpensive valuations as compelling, as high FCF yields and low leverage support potential share price re-rating through higher dividends, share buybacks, and funding flexibility for M&A. Our t...
Greater China Sector Update | Hong Kong Property Stronger local discretionary consumption supported positive growth in Hong Kong retail sales in 2H25, while the decline in visitors’ per capita spend moderated. Office rents remained under pressure but showed early signs of stabilisation. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on Hong Kong landlords. Link REIT remains our top pick despite a lower DPU forecast. We fine-tune Wharf REIC’s earnings and maintain BUY, while upgrading Hysan’s earnings and target price b...
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Company Update | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt17.20/Target: Bt 24.00) The new JV between BJL and DHL is expected to enhance BJC’s logistics operations. For 2025, management guided for top-line to be flat yoy and a 15-20bps yoy expansion in gross margin, mainly driven by the non-retail segment. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt24.00.
Top Stories Company Update | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt17.20/Target: Bt 24.00) The new JV between BJL and DHL is expected to enhance BJC’s logistics operations. For 2025, management guided for top-line to be flat yoy and a 15-20bps yoy expansion in gross margin, mainly driven by the non-retail segment. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt24.00. Company Update | Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/BUY/Bt31.25/Target: Bt37.00) The tone during CENTEL’s analyst meeting was positive, supported by t...
Greater China Company Results | Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$17.20/Target: HK$42.00 Geely’s 3Q25 results meet expectations with GAAP net profit/core net profit growing 58%/19% yoy and 6%/24% qoq to Rmb3.82b/Rmb3.96b respectively. Earnings growth will be driven by a strong product cycle, optimisation of sales mix, penetration into overseas markets, and consolidation of its brand portfolios. We maintain our 2025-27 earnings estimates. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$42.00 pegged...
Company Results | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt18.80/Target: Bt24.00) 3Q25 net profit declined yoy, in line with our estimate. The key drag remained the weak performance of the modern retail business. Earnings momentum in 4Q25 will continue to be driven by BJC’s non-retail businesses, supported by improving trends in the packaging and consumer segments, while the modern retail business is expected to gradually recover. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt24.00.
Top Stories Company Results | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt18.80/Target: Bt24.00) 3Q25 net profit declined yoy, in line with our estimate. The key drag remained the weak performance of the modern retail business. Earnings momentum in 4Q25 will continue to be driven by BJC’s non-retail businesses, supported by improving trends in the packaging and consumer segments, while the modern retail business is expected to gradually recover. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt24.00. Company Results | P...
Greater China Strategy | Small/Mid Cap Monthly – BUY JBM Healthcare On Recent Price Corrections We attribute JBM’s recent price correction to the absence of positive profit alert for 1HFY26, which disappointed the market. We believe the market overreacted, given: a) a relatively high base in 1HFY25, following a 112% EPS CAGR in 1HFY22-1HFY25; b) solid 1HFY26 performance, backed by robust volume growth of its iconic products and gross margin expansion; and c) undemanding valuations of 10.0x FY26F...
Company Update | Berli Jucker (BJC TB/BUY/Bt19.70/Target: Bt24.00) BJC’s SSSG is showing signs of improvement as the high-base effect has faded. 3Q25 earnings are expected to decline yoy but momentum has improved from 2Q25. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of Bt24.00 (from Bt22.00). We roll over target price to 2026F PE of 20x.
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