reports
- Marina William
Alexandria Containers and Cargo: 1Q21/22 – from one hit to the other; ...
RISE IN PRICES NOT ENOUGH TO SAVE TOP-LINE FROM DROP IN VOLUMES ALCN reported 1Q21/22 revenues of EGP538 million, compared to EGP674 million the previous quarter and EGP548 million in 1Q20/21, showing a drop both sequentially and annually of 20.2% and 1.9%, respectively. The drop in the number of containers handled was deeper than the slight rise in prices to prevent the decline in both aspects in the top-line. The number of containers handled came in at 181 thousand containers, declining by ...
- Marina William
ALCN: FY 21/22 valuation update – world trade recovery supports perfor...
WORLD TRADE RECOVERY IS A KEY CATALYST ALCN’s performance is reverting to its historical norms at a slow and unsteady pace as world trade continues to march to its pre-pandemic levels. The company’s main road bumps were EGP appreciation/FX losses, unfavourable revenue mix, and declining interest rates are still prevailing, along with the remaining effects of the pandemic and its variant strains, which are all pressuring the number of containers handled and creating a shift in the revenue mix....
- Marina William
ALCN: 3Q20/21| The Ship Has Sailed
RISING PRICES AND VOLUMES SUPPORTED BY FLOURISHING INTERNATIONAL TRADE ALCN reported 3Q20/21 revenues of EGP627 million, compared to EGP549 million in 2Q20/21 and EGP567 million in 3Q19/20, implementing a QoQ rise of 14.2% and YoY rise of 10.5%. Number of containers handled reached 225 thousand containers, rising by 11.8% QoQ but falling YoY slightly by 1.2%. EGP denominated service fees witnessed a healthy incline reaching EGP2,792/container in 3Q20/21, from EGP2,733/container in 2Q20/21 and...
- Marina William
ALCN: 2Q20/21 – Sequential improvement with gradual growth normalcy
WEAKNESS IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE STILL AFFECTING VOLUMES Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (ALCN) reported 2Q20/21 revenues of EGP549 million; a decline of 5.2% YoY despite the slight increase of 0.2% QoQ. The number of containers handled reached 201k in 2Q20/21, a fall of 5.0% YoY and 0.5% QoQ. USD denominated service fees rose by 2.7% YoY and 1.9% QoQ to settle on USD174/container, rising from USD171 in 1Q20/21 and USD170 in 2Q19/20. While EGP denominated service fees fell by 0.2% YoY...
- Marina William
ALCN: Weakness in international trade continues to pressure performanc...
Weak volumes drags down revenues ALCN reported 1Q20/21 revenues of EGP547.9 million; a decline of 18.3% YoY and 28.6% QoQ. Number of containers handled reached 201.9k container in 1Q20/21; falling sharply by 11.9% YoY and 18.0% QoQ. The annual decline can be mainly attributed to the impact of the Covid19 pandemic on the world’s trading activity, where the sharp QoQ decline is attributed to a strong base effect (positive seasonality) in 4Q19/20. USD denominated service fees declined by 3.4% Yo...
- Marina William
ALCN: Seasonal recovery not enough to cushion annual plunge
Seasonality enhances revenues quarterly performance, but still weaker yoy ALCN reported 4Q19/20 revenues of EGP767 million, a decline of 6.1% YoY and a rise of 35.1% QoQ. The number of containers handled witnessed a decline of 12.4% YoY and an increase of 8.3% QoQ. The quarterly spike in containers handled is attributed to: 1) beginning of summer season which has a nature of higher consumption activities, 2) the month of Ramadan where demand level rises, 3) Egyptian agricultural export season...
- Mariam Wael
- Zeyad Ahmed
ALCN: May 2020 valuation update – Global dynamics hit operations
Unfavorable gobal & macro dynamics cap growth Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (ALCN)’s operational performance continues to be hammered by macro-dynamics given the witnessed EGP appreciation/ FX losses, unfavorable revenue mix, and declining interest rates. The recent trade tensions along with the Covid-19 pandemic, the related shutting down of factories, and import restrictions created further pressure on the number of containers handled along with a shift in the revenue mix. We mai....
- Aly Khairy
- Ghada Alaa
Attractive entry point; Upgrade to Overweight
Unwarranted discount to peers. We raise our TP by c22% to EGP219/share, and upgrade our rating to OW from N. Following more than 2 years of sluggish trade activity that reflected on subdued throughput for ALCN (-15% off peak in FY14/15), we see signs of volumes bottoming out, and believe that growth will accelerate over the medium-term. The stock trades at a steep c28% discount to peers, with a FY18/19 attributable P/E of 11.0x, despite: i) a more favourable growth profile (FY18/19-20/21e EPS CA...
- Caroline Berzi
Price cuts evident, maintain Neutral
Drop TP by 14% on pricing pressure. We drop our FY17-20 EPS estimates by c11% as we see an 8% y-o-y drop in USD-revenue/TEU in FY17/18 (assumed no growth previously), post 5M17/18 results and assume no recovery until FY19/20. We believe ALCN will seek to maintain a low price environment over the medium-term to steer utilisation rates (57% as of 5M17/18). The stock trades at a steep discount on a 2018e EV/EBITDA of 9.1x vs. peers (10.1x), despite generating EBITDA growth (8.2% 2018-20e CAGR) high...
- Caroline Berzi
Short-term outlook lacks catalysts, downgrade to Neutral
Unlikely to see fee hikes this year. We cut our TP by 22% to account for lower USD-revenue/TEU and, to a lesser extent, higher G&A costs. ALCN’s unit fees fell by 8% y-o-y in FY16/17, falling short of our no growth estimate. With state plans to reduce fees in a bid to stimulate trade (noting that pricing is already high by regional standards), we now assume no growth in FY17/18e (vs. previous +5%) and +5% p.a. thereafter. While ALCN trades at a c19% discount to the peer average of 11.3x on EV/EB...
- Caroline Berzi
Initiate with OW; Earnings rerate not fully priced-in
A play on Egypt’s improved trade profile. ALCN, the only Egypt-listed port operator present through two concessions (covering 60% of Egypt’s seaborne trade), with volumes fully exposed to O&D1 cargo vs. DP World where 30% of volume is transhipment. This positions ALCN as a direct play on Egypt’s improved trade competitiveness given it has sufficient capacity (last recorded utilisation level was 58% for 8M16/17) to absorb more volumes. At 12.3x 2016/17e P/E, the stock trades c18% below peers, in ...
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
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