Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. We chose to help layout a simple and strong analytical baseline to understand the first-order impact of tariffs on our coverage. In a few slides we have summarised the groundwork and look forward to continuing the work and help our readers make sense of implications in weeks to come.
Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500 In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. We also said it likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation, that one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common (even during bull markets), and to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers...
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