When the BoJ raised rates in March, it had been 17 years since it had last done so, though the world was very different then. While the July rate hike was unlikely to move the economic needle, the question now is what else might follow the subsequent financial market maelstrom. Pelham Smithers discusses the outlook for Japan’s macro environment, what new fiscal policies the new PM might introduce, how the BoJ might react and the all-important trend in corporate earnings. This then leads us to...
With so much uncertainty over China and the state of its economy, Fanuc's earnings outlook is far from clear. We examine the earnings drivers and possible new engines of growth for this global No. 1 Robotics and top-ranked FA manufacturer.
In our 2010 Japan Perspective, written close to the nadir of the bear market, we discussed what was wrong with Japan, but also what it was starting to do right. Fourteen years on, the Nikkei 225 - though not yet Topix - has hit a new all-time high. This report looks at how Japan built on those things that were going right, while also starting to address what else needed to be done, and looks at whether more is needed to be done if the market rally is to continue from here.
At the beginning of every year we publish our PSA Perspective, a report intended as a long shelf-life look at the year ahead. This year Pelham Smithers discusses Japan's economy, the outlook for the stock market, and some stand-out themes and developments for the year. These include the digital yen and the demise of live action entertainment in Japan. We also update our noted PSA Focus List of stocks. Table of Contents Overview 3 Background: 4 Japan’s Economic Outlook 5 Ja...
PSA Machinery: Yaskawa Electric (6606 JT) - FY22 Outlook, FX, Cost Control, i-Cube Our base case FY22-23 is for continued yen weakness and an OP of Y77.0bil for FY22, well ahead of cons at Y69.2bil. The company is expecting an improvement in component shortages from Q2 and we see extremely strong demand for their most profitable customers in N. American shale and oil for Yaskawa’s inverters. We also like their shift in emphasis to Robotic systems as opposed to standalone, the value-add yieldin...
The Japanese stock market is in an interesting phase where the Bank of Japan is supporting the bond market rather than the stock market. While this phase lasts, the dollar should remain above ¥120/$ and perhaps strengthen further against the yen. This report looks at what this phase might mean for the Japanese stock market as a whole, and for stock selection. The PSA Focus List has also been updated.
The independent financial analyst theScreener just allocated a lower risk rating to FANUC (JP), active in the Industrial Machinery industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title still shows 2 out of 4 possible stars. Its market behaviour, however, has slightly improved and can be qualified as moderately risky. theScreener considers that these elements merit an overall rating upgrade to Neutral. As of the analysis date March 22, 2022, the closing price was JPY 21,340.00 and its expecte...
Yaskawa (TSE: 6506) - Despite a disappointing Q3, the strong recovery in China orders and the improving supply of semiconductor / components should allow Yaskawa to post record level H1 FY22 sales and OP. A large order backlog and the ongoing transition to high-margin next-gen models for A/C servos and Robotics support the near-term outlook. Yaskawa's share price often over-reacts to sudden improvement in earnings and the weak yen is an additional boost. Please see attached report
Fanuc’s FY21 Q3 OP of ¥46.0bil (+40% YoY/ +10% QoQ) came in 7% above consensus and the firm has raised the full-year FY21 OP guidance by 5%. This should provide a floor for the share price. Q4 OP will likely beat guidance we think, and the ensuing quarters should improve successively. While Fanuc is outperforming in some areas, and we are very positive overall, not everything is falling into place at once.
MITSUBISHI ELECTRIC (JP), a company active in the Industrial Machinery industry, now shows a lower overall rating. The independent financial analyst theScreener just confirmed the fundamental rating of 3 stars out of 4, as well as the stock market behaviour of the title as moderately risky. However, environmental deterioration penalises the general evaluation, which is downgraded to Neutral. As of the analysis date January 21, 2022, the closing price was JPY 1,477.50 and its expected value was e...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just downgraded the general evaluation of YASKAWA ELECTRIC (JP), active in the Industrial Machinery industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title loses a star(s) and now shows 0 out of 4 stars. Its market behaviour is also negatively reassessed and may be considered as risky. theScreener believes that this double requalification keeps the title under pressure and justifies an overall rating downgrade to Slightly Negative. As of the analys...
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