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Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director
Two Directors at Novo Nordisk AS bought 3,096 shares at 709.250DKK. The significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
- Jørgen Lian
CMB.TECH (Hold, TP: USD14.10) - Diversification at a cost
CMB.TECH’s diversified and ‘future-proof’ approach may prove attractive in steadily managing shipping cycles, changing fundamentals and stricter environmental regulations. However, diversification also comes at a price, and its heavy newbuild programme is straining its balance sheet and the outlook for dividends. Thus, we currently see greater upside potential in its pure crude tanker peers. We reiterate our HOLD and have lowered our target price to USD14.1 (16.3).
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Aalberts: Building already bottoming, industry tough. Air France-KLM: Nobody helps. Alfen: Covenant agreement, hikes output Smart Grid. AMG: Sweet for 2024F, sour for 2025F. ArcelorMittal: 3Q24 EBITDA beats by 6%, FCF solid. BAM: 3Q beats, on its way to reach FY guidance. CMB.TECH: 3Q and FY24 reasonable but then more challenges. D'Ieteren: EGM and dividend dates announced; Belron US peer Boyd disappointing 3Q24. GBL: Double-digit TSR expected over 2024-27F. KBC: 3Q better acro...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Wegovy roll-out boost
Q3 LCY sales growth was in line with our expectations, while LCY operating profit fell short. Based on the implied higher rebates in Q3, we have adjusted our Wegovy and Ozempic rebate estimates, offset by ROW Wegovy stock-build. The 2024 guidance for LCY sales growth was raised to 23–27% and LCY operating profit growth to 21–27%. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,150 target price.
- Jørgen Lian
Teekay Tankers (Buy, TP: USD74.00) - Soon time to prune the discount
We believe Teekay Tankers offers attractive tanker exposure, with limited downside risk, trading at a 45% discount to steel values. We estimate FCFE (including current cash) of USD40/share by end-2026, or 85% of the current share price. Conservatively assuming fleet scrap value at end-2026 implies 10% upside potential to the current share price, increasing to 80% on today’s asset values. We reiterate our BUY, but have trimmed our target price to USD74 (75).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Consensus Wegovy sales aligning
We are just below consensus on Q3e LCY sales growth, reflecting our lower Wegovy and Ozempic sales, we believe due to some contributors lacking US prescription data, or differences in rebate assumptions (we see limited risk of Q3 wholesale inventory reductions). We expect management to narrow the 2024 guidance for YOY LCY sales growth to 24–28% (from 22–28%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–28% (20–28%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,150 target price.
- Jørgen Lian
Teekay Tankers (Buy, TP: USD75.00) - Discounted tanker exposure
We see an attractive risk/reward, with scheduled tanker supply growth of just 3% in 2025, and potentially increased demand from the unwinding of cuts (2.2mbbl/day) by OPEC+ from December 2024. As a result, we believe Teekay Tankers offers appealing exposure to the tanker segment, trading at a hefty ~35% discount to steel values, compared with the peer group average of 4%. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to USD75 (81).
- Kristof Samoy
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - CagriSema set to raise the bar
We remain below Visible Alpha consensus on Q3 LCY figures, likely due to our lower assumptions of realised Wegovy and Ozempic US prescriptions. With the Q3 results, we still expect management to narrow the 2024 guidance for LCY sales growth of 24–28% YOY (22–28%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–28% YOY (20–28%). We focus on the REDEFINE-1 headline results (due in Q4) and expect CagriSema to show a c27% weight loss. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,150 target price.
- Kristof Samoy
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Kristof Samoy
CMB.Tech Supplementary payment of $0.52 on former bid price and bid re...
On September 6th the market court of Brussels ruled on a case between CMB (reference shareholder of CMB.Tech, formerly Euronav) and FourWorld. The court found that the pricing of certain vessels sold by Euronav to Frontline last November implied certain special benefits to Frontline. The Court calculated these benefits to be $0.52 per Euronav share. In connection with CMB's mandatory takeover bid for Euronav (presently CMB.Tech) earlier this year, the FSMA now made public its decision to require...
- Kristof Samoy
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Kristof Samoy
CMB.Tech Market court ruling opening door to $0.52 MTO bid price incre...
In a press release Euronav (soon to be renamed CMB.TECH) informed that the Market Court in Belgium has largely rejected the claims brought forward by FourWorld in connection with CMB's mandatory public bid for the Euronav shares that ended March 15, 2024. However, the Court did find that the pricing of certain vessels sold by Euronav to Frontline implied certain special benefits to Frontline. The Court calculated these benefits to be $0.52 p.s.. The judgment indicates that the FSMA retains discr...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Wim Lewi
- Jørgen Lian
Euronav (Hold, TP: USD16.30) - Charting a new course
Crude tankers remain the main earnings driver for now, but Euronav is steadily steering towards diversified shipping, with particular focus on sustainable solutions. A by-product of this is increasingly diversified cash flows supporting through-the-cycle investments – but also significant capex needs potentially straining the balance sheet and curtailing shareholder distributions medium-term. We reiterate our HOLD and have lowered our target price to USD16.3 (17.9).
- Kristof Samoy
CMB.Tech Key take-aways analyst call
Following this morning's publication of the 2Q release herewith key elements from Q&A with management during this afternoons analyst call. This morning we already published a FRN on the earnings release itself. All in all CMBT posted nice results showing diversifications pays off. The newly formed company is successfully disposing older vessels at high prices, reinvesting crude tanker cash flows and concluding LT contracts to finance its massive fleet transformation.
- Kristof Samoy
CMB.Tech Good 2Q24 results, swift execution of fleet rejuvenation plan...
Over 2Q24 CMB.Tech reported adjusted EBITDA (excl. capital gains) of $164m above our $129m estimate. The company is swiftly executing its new build programme and recycling cash through disposals of older vessels. Favourable dynamics in the Euronav tanker fleet finance the transformation towards a sustainable shipping platform. Following the recent $6.72 p.s. distribution bonanza no further distribution over 2Q was declared as we expected given CMBT' s discretionary dividend policy. Company manag...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Corbion: Swings and roundabouts. CTP: Good operational trends, guidance reiterated. dsm-firmenich: Another cheque from BASF. Euronav: 2Q beats expectations. KBC: 2Q well above, NII guidance up, ready for 3Q State Bond release of c.€22bn. SBM Offshore: Strong set of 1H24 results, more to come. TKH Group: 2Q is not going to be the quarter. Xior Student Housing: Positive portfolio revaluation
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