reports
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls
The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. Take profits on Alibaba and Xiaomi; cut losses on Anta.
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
2633 JACOBSON PHARMA CORP LTD
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
2269 WUXI BIOLOGICS (CAYMAN) INC.
02161 JBM (HEALTHCARE) LTD
02015 LI AUTO INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Re-valuation On Shifting Dynamics Of AI Infrastructure...
Following the release of 2Q25 results, the market has started to re-value AI-related and ad-tech upgrade themes. Garnering the most interest was the AI theme driven by: a) re-accelerated cloud revenue growth, b) the emergence of AI agents, c) broader AI application, and d) self-sufficiency in chip development. Potential beneficiaries of the AI theme poised for continuous re-rating include Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu. Tongcheng could see robust travel demand during Golden Week. Maintain OVERWEIGHT...
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Trip.com (9961 HK): Key Takeaways from NDR Meeting.
At our NDR meeting with TCOM on 18 Sep, management highlighted resilient domestic travel demand alongside solid progress in international travel, with outbound and inbound momentum supported by improving air capacity and easing visa restrictions. We remain positive on TCOM’s sustained travel growth and long-term margin outlook, underpinned by AI-driven initiatives, a strategic focus on the APAC region, and continued market share expansion through strengthened competitive advantages. Maintain BUY...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Greater China Research Team
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
Greater China Daily: Friday, September 19, 2025
Top Stories Sector Update | Automobile This week's key highlights include insights from a China Automobile Dealer Association forum and a visit to Lynk & Co's Chengdu plant, China's historic L3 ADAS policy approval, and weekly sales updates. The market responded positively to these developments, prompting target price upgrades for Tuopu, Sanhua, Joyson Electronics and Fuyao Glass. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for China's auto sector, with Geely and CATL as top BUYs, and BYD and Li Auto as top SELLs. ...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Key Takeaways From Marketing Trip
Key investor focus areas discussed during the marketing trip include: a) key drivers for AI cloud and applications outperformance, b) sustainability of monetisation of AI applications, c) ROI of accelerating capex, d) self-sufficiency in chips development, and e) where the competition in food delivery and quick commerce is ultimately headed. We foresee that AI/AI Cloud, online gaming and OTAs are poised to benefit from further re-rating, supported by their outperformance in growth. Maintain OVER...
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Strong top-line growth and margins further hurt in 2H2...
China’s internet companies reported intact 2Q25 top-line with mixed earnings results. The key focuses are on the latest quick commerce war and AI cloud and agent development. In 2Q25, we saw meaningful AI monetisation visibility contributing to incremental top-line growth, and expect this momentum to continue into 2H25. On the profitability front, margins will remain under pressure from heightened investments to fend off the intensifying competition in on-demand delivery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Trip.com (9961 HK): 2Q25: Earnings beat; solid 3Q25 outlook propelled ...
TCOM’s 2Q25 earnings were better than expected. 2Q25 net revenue rose 16.2% yoy to Rmb14.9b, in line with consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net profit inched up 1% yoy to Rmb5b, beating consensus forecasts by 15%. Net margin shrank 5ppt yoy to 33.8%, better than consensus estimates. TCOM guided 3Q25 revenue growth of 12-17% yoy to Rmb18.1b, in line with consensus expectations. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$725.00 (US$94.00).
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Friday, August 29, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Market Strategy “Anti-involution” is now a policy focus after President Xi Jinping vowed to manage “disorderly competition” during the CFEAC meeting in July. The concept covers a broader area than the 2016-17 supply-side reform, but we expect the government to address excess supply issues and encourage competition through quality and technology upgrades rather than price-cutting. Sector leaders with scale and R&D depth will consolidate their market shares and emerge win...
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
ECX ECARX HOLDINGS INC
02015 LI AUTO INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Jin Yoon
TCOM 2Q25 Results: Travel Demand Remains Resilient
What’s new: Trip.com’s reported 2Q25 revs that were largely in-line with consensus and our expectations. Travel demand remains resilient across segments as TCOM continues to gain market share in both domestic and international markets. We maintain our PT at USD75. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Greater China Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China 2H25 Market Strategy: A Big Beautiful Deal?
Trade deal in focus. Notwithstanding the 90-day truce on tariff escalation, it is still a 50/50 if there will be a “Big Beautiful Deal” between the US and China. The US is steadfast in wanting to cap China’s growth and restricting her access to the latest technology, while China is making a firm stand on its economic rights. We expect that higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unavoidable, likely closer to the 60% mark, if Trump were to be seen making a credible move to onshore production in ...
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
02161 JBM (HEALTHCARE) LTD
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
1698 HK TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP
3750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY (3750 HK)
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Trip.com (9961 HK): 1Q25: Earnings beat; international tourism and AI ...
TCOM’s 1Q25 earnings were better than expected. 1Q25 net revenue rose 16.2% yoy to Rmb13.9b, in line with consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net profit grew 3.3% yoy to Rmb4.2b, beating consensus forecasts by 9%. Net margin shrank 4ppt yoy to 30.3%, better than consensus estimates. TCOM guided a 2Q25 revenue growth of 12-17% yoy to Rmb14.6b, in line with expectations. Maintain BUY with a slightly higher target price of HK$635.00 (US$82.00).
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Greater China Daily: Wednesday, May 21, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK/BUY/HK$4.89/Target: HK$6.20) FY25 revenue grew 13.2% yoy, while adjusted net profit surged 35.6% yoy, in line with our and market’s estimates. Ali Health guides FY26 revenue and adjusted net profit growth of 5-10% and 10-20% yoy respectively. We lower our FY26 revenue and earnings estimates, but still expect robust adjusted net profit CAGR of 20% for FY26-28 on an improving product mix for the direct sales business and contin...
- Jin Yoon
TCOM 1Q25 Results: Travel Demand Remains Resilient
What’s new: Trip.com’s reported 1Q25 revs that were in-line consensus and our expectations. Travel demand remains resilient as TCOM continues to gain market share in both domestic and international segments. We maintain our PT at USD75. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls
The HSI and MSCI China index fell 4.3% mom and 5.2% mom respectively in April, driven by Trump’s tariff announcements in early-April and fears of a potential global recession. Due to the ongoing external uncertainties, we will maintain our exposure to domestic policy beneficiaries and defensive sectors. New additions to our BUY list are Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, and Trip.com, and we take profit of CR Land and JBM Healthcare.
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Online Travel Agencies: Travel data preview: Expecting a vibrant...
We saw continuous vitality in cultural and tourism consumption based on 1Q25 travel data and Labour Day travel data projections. Key travellers’ preference trends during Labour Day 2025 will be long-haul travel, inbound tourism and county-level travel. With favourable policy support such as the implementation of "instant tax refunds" for outbound travel, we expect to see promising revenue and earnings growth from OTA companies in 1H25. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Navigating headwinds and uncovering opportunities upon...
Chinese internet companies’ share prices have dropped 10-30% mtd following the implementation of incremental tariffs from the US. Chinese internet companies have limited business exposure to the US except for PDD’s Temu. However, the 34% tariffs announced by China on all US imports could have potential implications for China mega-caps’ AI capex in relation to US chip imports. We prefer domestic-focused plays which stand to benefit from domestic policy stimuli, with Southbound inflow to be a key ...
NEH NETEASE INC. SPONSORED ADR
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
N1U NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC. SPONSORED ADR
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Trip.com (9961 HK): 4Q24: Earnings beat; continuous efforts in interna...
4Q24 results were better than expected. 4Q24 net revenue rose 23.5% yoy to Rmb12.8b, in line with consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net profit grew 13.6% yoy to Rmb3b, beating consensus forecasts by 6%. Net margin shrank 2ppt yoy to 23.8%, in line with consensus estimates. TCOM guided 1Q25 revenue growth of 14-19% yoy to Rmb13.8b, in line with consensus estimates. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$630.00 (US$81.00).
- Greater China Research Team
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Greater China Daily: Wednesday, February 26, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Trip.com (9961 HK/BUY/HK$462.00/Target: HK$630.00) 4Q24 results were better than expected. 4Q24 net revenue rose 23.5% yoy to Rmb12.8b, in line with consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net profit grew 13.6% yoy to Rmb3b, beating consensus forecasts by 6%. Net margin shrank 2ppt yoy to 23.8%, in line with consensus estimates. TCOM guided 1Q25 revenue growth of 14-19% yoy to Rmb13.8b, in line with consensus estimates. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$630.00 (US$81.00...
- Jin Yoon
TCOM 4Q24 Results: Travel Demand Remains Resilient in 1Q
What’s new: Trip.com’s reported 4Q24 revs that were above consensus and our expectations. Travel demand during/post-CNY has remained resilient where TCOM could further gain market shares in both domestic and international markets. Margins could be adversely impacted by rev mix shift towards the pure international market segment. We maintain our PT at USD75. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Tian Hou
TCOM: TCOM’s Potential Better 4Q2024 Performance and Better Long-Term ...
Based on our data, TCOM is set to deliver strong 4Q2024 results, exceeding market expectations, with Accommodation and Transportation Revenue growth serving as the primary drivers of its performance. Coupled with additional contributing factors, the company’s solid trajectory underscores its ability to capitalize on the recovery in the global travel industry. While the short-term drivers are promising, the long-term outlook is equally compelling. As younger travelers fuel demand across high-grow...
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