2QFY26: Stable Earnings Amid NIM Pressure Highlights In line. Alliance Bank Malaysia (Alliance Bank) reported 2QFY26 net profit of RM206.6m (+8.8% yoy, +4.0 qoq), bringing 1HFY26 earnings to RM405.2m (+10.6% yoy). 1HFY26 earnings are deemed to be in line, representing 51% of both our and consensus’ full-year forecasts.
Improving Fundamentals Depite Macro Headwinds Highlights The banking sector’s Sep 25 stats remained resilient despite macro headwinds. Loan growth inched upwards to 5.5%, asset quality improved further with GIL at historical lows and liquidity stayed healthy with LDR below 89%. We expect sector earnings to grow 3%/5% in 2025/26 respectively. Earnings resilience is underpinned by an around 5% loan growth, stable credit costs, manageable NIM pressure, and potential non-interest income upside. ...
Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...
Stable Performance Amid Macro Pressures Highlights The banking sector’s Aug 25 stats remained resilient despite macro headwinds. Loan growth held steady at 5.4%, asset quality improved with GIL at historical lows, and liquidity stayed healthy with LDR below 90%. We expect sector earnings to grow 3%/5% in 2025/26 respectively. Earnings resilience is underpinned by an around 5% loan growth, stable credit costs, manageable NIM pressure, and potential non-interest income upside. Maintain OVERW...
Solid Under Pressure We expect sector earnings to grow 3%/5% in 2025/26 respectively, with a stronger rebound in 2026 as deposits reprice lower, lifting NIM (+2bp). Earnings resilience is underpinned by an about 5% loan growth, stable credit costs, manageable NIM pressure, and potential non-interest income upside. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We remain constructive on the sector. Valuations remain appealing, with the sector trading at a mean P/B of 1.10x and offering an attractive dividend yield o...
1QFY26: Strong Loan Growth Amid Softer NIM And Higher Provisions 1QFY26 earnings in line. Alliance Bank Malaysia (Alliance Bank) reported a 1QFY26 net profit of RM198.7m (+12.5% yoy, +0.6% qoq). 1QFY26 earnings are deemed in line, representing 25% of both our/consensus full-year forecasts.
Prime Beneficiary Of A Soft Landing Despite an uncertain macro backdrop from US tariffs, we upgrade the sector to OVERWEIGHT after its ytd underperformance. Resilient earnings, attractive dividends, and its position as a prime beneficiary of EM rotation from Fed easing are, in our view, key catalysts. The sector offers defensive shelter while retaining upside potential in the early phase of a cyclical recovery. We also take the opportunity to upgrade CIMB to a BUY and our sector recommendation t...
Loans Growth Tapers Amid Caution Loan growth softened to 5.1% in Jun 25 (May 25: +5.3%), driven by weaker business lending. Loan applications, particularly from businesses, also declined, likely reflecting a cautious stance amid tariff uncertainties. We maintain our 2025 loan growth forecast at 5-6%, implying a 1.4x loan-to-GDP multiplier, consistent with the historical 1.0x-1.7x range. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with a preference for defensive names like Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank.
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Rebound falters, weighed down by weaker construction and input cost pressures. Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales pressured by anti-involution initiatives. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.26/Target: HK$12.00) ...
Loans Growth Improves Loans growth improved to 5.3% in May 25 (Apr 25: 5.1%), driven by stronger construction loans. We are keeping our 2025 loans growth estimates at 5-6% (recently revised downwards from 6-7% on slower GDP growth forecasts). This implies a 1.4x loans to GDP growth multiplier which is broadly in line with the historical range of 1.0x- 1.70x. Maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring defensive plays like Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank.
INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlight Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ/NOT RATED/Rp328) A clear turning point. MALAYSIA Sector Banking Loans growth improved to 5.3% from 5.1% in May 25. The absence of strong earnings catalysts has prompted us to maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Results Sapura Energy (SAPE MK/BUY/RM0.05/Target: RM0.07) 1QFY26: Core losses are in line on poorer rig utilisation and lu...
Digital Banks – A Complement, Not A Threat Three of Malaysia’s five licensed digital banks have begun operations. However, with lending still limited and a RM3b asset cap in place during their early years, they are unlikely to pose a near-term threat to traditional banks. Established banks continue to advance their own digital agendas, and retain broader product capabilities and distribution networks. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with our sector top picks skewed more to defensive and undervalued bank...
4QFY25: Delivers on Earnings, Rights Issue in Focus FY25 earnings in line. Alliance Bank Malaysia (Alliance Bank) reported a 4QFY25 net profit of RM197.5m (+5.8% qoq, 11.1% yoy), bringing FY25 earnings to RM750.7m (+8.7% yoy). Earnings are deemed in line, representing 101% and 96% of our and consensus full-year forecasts respectively. A DPS of 9.9sen was declared, bringing the cumulative DPS to 19.4sen, or a 40% payout.
Loan Growth Tapers Off Loan growth moderated slightly to 5.2% in Mar 25 (Feb 25: +5.3%), driven by softer household lending. In tandem with our downward revision of the 2025 GDP forecast to 4.0% (from 4.8%), we lower our system loan growth projection to a more tempered 5-6% range (previously 6-7%). We maintain our MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring top sector picks with resilient earnings profiles and potential upside from capital management initiatives.
Robust Lending Outlook Balanced By Capital Dilution Alliance’s loan book is largely insulated against export shocks. Medium-term loans growth is expected to outpace the industry. A proposed RM600m rights issue could lift CET1 to 13.6%, fuelling future growth and providing sufficient capital buffer. While NIMs may compress slightly due to deposit competition, they should remain stable in FY26. Net credit cost rose to 30.6bp but remains prudent. Maintain HOLD and target price of RM4.84, as valuati...
GREATER CHINA Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$328.40/Target: HK$394.00): Expecting solid 1Q25 earnings growth but trade war risk lingers. INDONESIA Sector Mining: The gold game: Key beneficiaries of the bull run. MALAYSIA Malaysia Gems Conference Highlights Alliance Bank Malaysia (ABMB MK/HOLD/RM4.35/Target: RM4.84): Loan growth outpaces industry but rights issue caps upside. Maintain HOLD and target price of RM4.84. ITMAX Systems (ITMAX MK/BUY/RM3.72/Target: RM4.30): Ex...
A director at Alliance Bank Malaysia Berhad bought 25,000 shares at 4.650MYR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last tw...
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Monetisation potential and trends of AI agent from the launch of Manus AI. Results CMOC (3993 HK/BUY/HK$6.72/Target: HK$8.70) 2024: Above expectations; copper output up 55% yoy to 650,161 tonnes. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$12.58/Target: HK$11.62) 2024: Results in line; more volatile business environment in 2025 but limited valuation ...
2H24 Financial Stability Report: Banking System Remains Sound BNM’s 2H24 Financial Stability Report highlights that while Malaysia is not fully insulated from external risks like US trade policies and geopolitical tensions, the banking system is well-positioned to weather potential headwinds given the strong provision buffers and liquidity position. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT as the risk-reward remains balanced.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.