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Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks :November Conviction Calls.

HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C and Sunny Optical to BUY; take profits on Meituan, OOIL and Ping A...

Alden Gabriel Lam ... (+20)
  • Alden Gabriel Lam
  • Andrew Agita Buntoro
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Lester Siew
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Sunny Chen
  • Suryaputra Wijaksana
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Thailand Research Team
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, November 04, 2025

Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...

KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD PCL
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
C09 CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
IVL INDORAMA VENTURES PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
558 UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED
GFPT GFPT
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
5347 TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
BURSA MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
PEP BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
RATCH PPB GROUP BERHAD
2633 RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
HCM JACOBSON PHARMA CORP LTD
AIS HUTCHISON CHINA MEDITECH LIMITED
RSTON ADVANCED INFO SYSTEMS
FEH RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LTD
UHU FOOD EMPIRE HOLDINGS LTD
FRKN UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
MPM FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
CSSC MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
CRPU CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
CICT SASSEUR REIT (S CHIP)
SCGP CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP SCG PACKAGING PCL
2269 LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
OXMU WUXI BIOLOGICS (CAYMAN) INC.
HMN PRIME US REIT
CLCT ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
KORE CAPITALAND CHINA TRUST
OR KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
MXNU PTT OIL AND RETAIL BUSINESS PUBLIC CO LIMITED
CLAR ELITE COMMERCIAL REIT MGNT PTE LTD
DCRU CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
MTEL IJ DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
02161 PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
02015 JBM (HEALTHCARE) LTD
0303 LI AUTO INC
LAGENDA ALPHA IVF GROUP
SDG LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
BRMS IJ SD GUTHRIE BHD
AADI IJ BUMI RESOURCES MINERALS
002371 CH ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
ASL SP NAURA TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD
ASL MARINE (ASL SP)
Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

PICC Property and Casualty (2328 HK): 3Q25: In-line Results With Indus...

PICC P&C’s results are in line with its profit alert as 9M25 net profit rose 50.5% yoy, driven by a 2.1ppt CoR improvement and robust investment income growth amid a bullish stock market. Implied 3Q25 CoR was 97.7%, down 3.2ppt yoy, with the auto and non-auto segments delivering underwriting profits despite seasonally elevated natural disaster losses. Management expects a steady CoR improvement in 2026, backed by regulatory-driven non-auto expenses reform and ongoing cost discipline. Maintain BU...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+14)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Colin Lee
  • Damon Shen
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Monday, November 3, 2025

Top Stories Company Update | AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$75.45/Target: HK$95.00) AIA’s VONB grew strongly by 27% yoy in 3Q25, significantly above consensus expectation of 17% yoy, due to the sustained strong momentum in Hong Kong (+40% yoy) and a notable recovery in mainland China, where VONB rose 27% yoy despite assumption changes. ANP sales growth accelerated to 15% and VONB margin also improved 6.0ppt, due to a favourable shift in product mix in China. Maintain BUY with a higher target price o...

Audrey Celia ... (+20)
  • Audrey Celia
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Colin Lee
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Johnny Yum
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kai Jie Tang
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn
  • Wei Xiang Ku
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, November 03, 2025

Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...

ORI ORIGIN PROPERTY
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
KTB KRUNG THAI BANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2488 ALLIANCE BANK MALAYSIA BHD.
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
QH QUALITY HOUSES
1295 PUBLIC BANK BHD
ENRG ENERGI MEGA PERSADA
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
N2IU MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
SPALI SUPALAI PCL
1155 MALAYAN BANKING BHD.
C61U CAPITALAND COMMERCIAL TRUST
ADRO PT ADARO ENERGY TBK
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
AP AP THAILAND
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
HLFG HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
LPN LPN DEVELOPMENT PCL
SSG SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
AMM AMMB HOLDINGS BHD
HLBK HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD
ABANK AFFIN BANK BHD
PSH PRUKSA HOLDING PCL
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
CRPU SASSEUR REIT (S CHIP)
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
OXMU PRIME US REIT
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
CLCT CAPITALAND CHINA TRUST
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
MXNU ELITE COMMERCIAL REIT MGNT PTE LTD
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
ITC I-TAIL CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
BIMB BANK ISLAM MALAYSIA BHD
DCRU DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
MAYBANK MALAYAN BANKING BHD
VST VSTECS BHD
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
002050 CH ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (002050 CH)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
002747 CH ESTUN AUTOMATION
EREIT ESR REIT
Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

PICC Property and Casualty (2328 HK): Positive Profit Alert.

PICC P&C issued a positive profit alert, expecting its net profit to surge 40-60% in 9M25 due to a significant increase in underwriting profit and strong investment gains amid the stock market rally. We forecast continued CoR improvement in 4Q25, supported by the implementation of non-auto commission reforms effective from 1 Nov 25. We lift our 2025 earnings estimates by 8.9% to factor in the 3Q25 positive profit alert. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$22.20.

Greater China Research Team ... (+2)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

Greater China Daily: Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Top Stories Company Update | PICC P&C (2328 HK/BUY/HK$19.04/Target: HK$22.20) PICC P&C issued a positive profit alert, expecting its net profit to surge 40-60% in 9M25 due to a significant increase in underwriting profit and strong investment gains amid the stock market rally. We forecast continued CoR improvement in 4Q25, supported by the implementation of non-auto commission reforms effective from 1 Nov 25. We lift our 2025 earnings estimates by 8.9% to factor in the 3Q25 positive profit aler...

Chong Lee Len ... (+6)
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Greater China Company Update | PICC P&C (2328 HK/BUY/HK$19.04/Target: HK$22.20) PICC P&C issued a positive profit alert, expecting its net profit to surge 40-60% in 9M25, attributed to a significant increase in underwriting profit and strong investment gains amid the stock market rally. We forecast continued CoR improvement in 4Q25, supported by the implementation of non-auto commission reforms effective from 1 Nov 25. We lift our 2025 earnings estimates by 8.9% to factor in the 3Q25 positiv...

Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

PICC Property and Casualty (2328 HK): 1H25: Solid earnings beat on str...

PICC P&C’s 1H25 results were a strong beat with 32% earnings growth, mainly supported by a 1.4ppt yoy CoR improvement and 27% higher investment income amid a strong equity market performance. Interim dividend rose 15% yoy, aligning with the company’s progressive dividend policy. We believe the reduced natural disaster loss and upcoming non-auto regulatory commission reforms will continue to support further CoR enhancement. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$21.00.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+15)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Ming San Soong
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Friday, August 29, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Market Strategy “Anti-involution” is now a policy focus after President Xi Jinping vowed to manage “disorderly competition” during the CFEAC meeting in July. The concept covers a broader area than the 2016-17 supply-side reform, but we expect the government to address excess supply issues and encourage competition through quality and technology upgrades rather than price-cutting. Sector leaders with scale and R&D depth will consolidate their market shares and emerge win...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+17)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Ming San Soong
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, August 29, 2025

GREATER CHINA Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$15.84/Target: HK$21.70) 1H25: Revenue slightly misses but operating profit beats; expect mid-to-high single-digit revenue decline for 2025. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$19.05/Target: HK$22.60) 1H25: In line; from earnings drag to guidance-driven re-rating; upgrade to BUY. ECARX Holdings Inc (ECX US/BUY/US$1.60/Target: US$3.40) 2Q25: Net loss widens; recovery expected in 2H25. Maintain...

Claire Wang Kelai ... (+3)
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Tham Mun Hon

Greater China 2H25 Market Strategy: A Big Beautiful Deal?

 Trade deal in focus. Notwithstanding the 90-day truce on tariff escalation, it is still a 50/50 if there will be a “Big Beautiful Deal” between the US and China. The US is steadfast in wanting to cap China’s growth and restricting her access to the latest technology, while China is making a firm stand on its economic rights. We expect that higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unavoidable, likely closer to the 60% mark, if Trump were to be seen making a credible move to onshore production in ...

Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

Greater China Insurance: Weighing the risks and returns.

China regulators have introduced several measures, allowing insurers to further raise their equity investment allocations. We estimate that insurers could reallocate Rmb900b to equities, supported by these regulatory tailwinds. However, insurers are likely to remain cautious due to earnings volatility and solvency headwinds from a declining long-term yield. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: Prudential and PICC P&C.

Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad ... (+11)
  • Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Colin Lee
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Johnny Yum
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, June 23, 2025

GREATER CHINA Sector Insurance Weighing the risks and returns. Update Sunny Optical (2382 HK/BUY/HK$65.15/Target: HK$100.00) Takeaways from 2025 Investor Day. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Strategy Challenging Macro Environment Adds To Case For Rate Cut Our top picks are BBCA, BBRI, ANTM, AMRT, ICBP, CMRY and ERAA. MALAYSIA Sector Automobile ...

Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

PICC Property and Casualty (2328 HK) - 1Q25: Outstanding CoR And Robus...

PICC P&C registered a 92.7% yoy earnings growth in 1Q25 on impressive COR enhancement and investment yield hikes. Total premium grew 3.7% yoy with balanced growth across the auto and non-auto segments. The company is confident about achieving its 2025 CoR target, supported by regulatory tailwinds on non-auto commission control and EVs’ improving CoR. PICC P&C also targets its total premium to outgrow GDP in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: HK$15.80.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+15)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Colin Lee
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily - Friday, May 2, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI: A sharp contraction in overseas demand. Sector Healthcare: Drug innovators continue to drive market growth. Macau Gaming: Apr 25 GGR beat expectations; May Day Golden Week visitor arrivals expected to grow 4% yoy. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$52.20/Target: HK$68.00): 1Q25: Earnings disappoint; mainstream tools recovering in 2025 but visibility remains low. Maintain BUY. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/BUY/Rmb63.40/Target: Rmb70.80): 1Q25: Core net profit...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+20)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Colin Lee
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Notes - Friday, May 02, 2025

GREATER CHINA Sector Macau Gaming: Apr 25 GGR beat expectations; May Day Golden Week visitor arrivals expected to grow 4% yoy. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$52.20/Target: HK$68.00): 1Q25: Earnings disappoint; mainstream tools recovering in 2025 but visibility remains low. Maintain BUY. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/BUY/Rmb63.40/Target: Rmb70.80): 1Q25: Core net profit down 16% yoy; sequential improvement in Hainan duty-free sales. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/BUY/HK$18.94/Target: HK$30.00)...

Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

PICC Property and Casualty (2328 HK): 2024: CoR misses and lower payou...

PICC P&C’s 2024 earnings growth of 30.9% yoy landed at the mid-point of the profit alert, mainly due to solid investment income growth. The underwriting results were below our expectations, dragged by CoR deterioration in non-auto lines. DPS rose 10% but payout ratio fell to 37% as the insurer intends to maintain a more stable dividend growth. Downgrade to HOLD despite a more optimistic CoR outlook in 2025 as its valuation is relatively rich with a modest yield of 3.7%. Target price: HK$14.70.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+13)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Colin Lee
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Monday, March 31, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$6.70/Target: HK$7.50) CCB’s 2024 earnings (+0.9% yoy) were above our expectation, mainly driven by its resilient NIM on better deposit cost management, strong trading gains and lower impairment. Asset quality remains solid but pressure on the retail segment is increasing. MoF will inject Rmb105b of new capital into CCB which will result in a 4.3% equity dilution and 50bp boost in CET1 ratio. We expect a largely neutral market reacti...

Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim

PICC Property and Casualty (2328 HK): 3Q24: Earnings boosted by strong...

PICC P&C’s 9M24 earnings growth of 38% yoy was at the upper end of the profit alert (20-40%) mainly due to a 70% surge in investment income from the stock market rally. Rmb1.2b of underwriting losses were recorded in 3Q24 as natural disaster losses weighed on non-auto CoR (+2.5ppt yoy). However, management is still confident on achieving its auto/non-auto CoR targets of

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