PICC P&C’s 2025 earnings fell 7% short of our estimates, primarily due to the non-auto segment’s continued underwriting loss despite a 1.1ppt CoR enhancement. Total investment income hiked 10% yoy, driven by a 0.1ppt yoy increase in total investment yield and 12.4% investment asset growth. Looking ahead, management’s 2026 CoR guidance remains relatively conservative compared to the prior year’s, targeting a stable auto CoR and breakeven for the non-auto segment. Maintain BUY with a lower target ...
Top Stories Company Results | China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$8.09/Target: HK$9.20) CCB’s 4Q25 earnings grew 2.2% yoy, thanks to a surge in other non-NII amid increased bond trading gain, fee income growth and cost control. NIM was largely stable and management expects smaller NIM compression in 2026. Asset quality was largely stable despite some pressure on mortgages. These results reaffirm CCB's continued fundamental improvement and its attractive dividend yield of 5.3% stands out as a...
Greater China Company Results | China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$8.09/Target: HK$9.20) CCB’s 4Q25 earnings grew 2.2% yoy, thanks to a surge in other non-NII amid increased bond trading gain, fee income growth and cost control. NIM was largely stable and management expects smaller NIM compression in 2026. Asset quality was largely stable despite some pressure on mortgages. These results reaffirm CCB's continued fundamental improvement and its attractive dividend yield of 5.3% stands out as ...
HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C and Sunny Optical to BUY; take profits on Meituan, OOIL and Ping A...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...
PICC P&C’s results are in line with its profit alert as 9M25 net profit rose 50.5% yoy, driven by a 2.1ppt CoR improvement and robust investment income growth amid a bullish stock market. Implied 3Q25 CoR was 97.7%, down 3.2ppt yoy, with the auto and non-auto segments delivering underwriting profits despite seasonally elevated natural disaster losses. Management expects a steady CoR improvement in 2026, backed by regulatory-driven non-auto expenses reform and ongoing cost discipline. Maintain BU...
Top Stories Company Update | AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$75.45/Target: HK$95.00) AIA’s VONB grew strongly by 27% yoy in 3Q25, significantly above consensus expectation of 17% yoy, due to the sustained strong momentum in Hong Kong (+40% yoy) and a notable recovery in mainland China, where VONB rose 27% yoy despite assumption changes. ANP sales growth accelerated to 15% and VONB margin also improved 6.0ppt, due to a favourable shift in product mix in China. Maintain BUY with a higher target price o...
Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...
PICC P&C issued a positive profit alert, expecting its net profit to surge 40-60% in 9M25 due to a significant increase in underwriting profit and strong investment gains amid the stock market rally. We forecast continued CoR improvement in 4Q25, supported by the implementation of non-auto commission reforms effective from 1 Nov 25. We lift our 2025 earnings estimates by 8.9% to factor in the 3Q25 positive profit alert. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$22.20.
Top Stories Company Update | PICC P&C (2328 HK/BUY/HK$19.04/Target: HK$22.20) PICC P&C issued a positive profit alert, expecting its net profit to surge 40-60% in 9M25 due to a significant increase in underwriting profit and strong investment gains amid the stock market rally. We forecast continued CoR improvement in 4Q25, supported by the implementation of non-auto commission reforms effective from 1 Nov 25. We lift our 2025 earnings estimates by 8.9% to factor in the 3Q25 positive profit aler...
Greater China Company Update | PICC P&C (2328 HK/BUY/HK$19.04/Target: HK$22.20) PICC P&C issued a positive profit alert, expecting its net profit to surge 40-60% in 9M25, attributed to a significant increase in underwriting profit and strong investment gains amid the stock market rally. We forecast continued CoR improvement in 4Q25, supported by the implementation of non-auto commission reforms effective from 1 Nov 25. We lift our 2025 earnings estimates by 8.9% to factor in the 3Q25 positiv...
PICC P&C’s 1H25 results were a strong beat with 32% earnings growth, mainly supported by a 1.4ppt yoy CoR improvement and 27% higher investment income amid a strong equity market performance. Interim dividend rose 15% yoy, aligning with the company’s progressive dividend policy. We believe the reduced natural disaster loss and upcoming non-auto regulatory commission reforms will continue to support further CoR enhancement. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$21.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Market Strategy “Anti-involution” is now a policy focus after President Xi Jinping vowed to manage “disorderly competition” during the CFEAC meeting in July. The concept covers a broader area than the 2016-17 supply-side reform, but we expect the government to address excess supply issues and encourage competition through quality and technology upgrades rather than price-cutting. Sector leaders with scale and R&D depth will consolidate their market shares and emerge win...
GREATER CHINA Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$15.84/Target: HK$21.70) 1H25: Revenue slightly misses but operating profit beats; expect mid-to-high single-digit revenue decline for 2025. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$19.05/Target: HK$22.60) 1H25: In line; from earnings drag to guidance-driven re-rating; upgrade to BUY. ECARX Holdings Inc (ECX US/BUY/US$1.60/Target: US$3.40) 2Q25: Net loss widens; recovery expected in 2H25. Maintain...
Trade deal in focus. Notwithstanding the 90-day truce on tariff escalation, it is still a 50/50 if there will be a “Big Beautiful Deal” between the US and China. The US is steadfast in wanting to cap China’s growth and restricting her access to the latest technology, while China is making a firm stand on its economic rights. We expect that higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unavoidable, likely closer to the 60% mark, if Trump were to be seen making a credible move to onshore production in ...
China regulators have introduced several measures, allowing insurers to further raise their equity investment allocations. We estimate that insurers could reallocate Rmb900b to equities, supported by these regulatory tailwinds. However, insurers are likely to remain cautious due to earnings volatility and solvency headwinds from a declining long-term yield. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: Prudential and PICC P&C.
GREATER CHINA Sector Insurance Weighing the risks and returns. Update Sunny Optical (2382 HK/BUY/HK$65.15/Target: HK$100.00) Takeaways from 2025 Investor Day. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Strategy Challenging Macro Environment Adds To Case For Rate Cut Our top picks are BBCA, BBRI, ANTM, AMRT, ICBP, CMRY and ERAA. MALAYSIA Sector Automobile ...
PICC P&C registered a 92.7% yoy earnings growth in 1Q25 on impressive COR enhancement and investment yield hikes. Total premium grew 3.7% yoy with balanced growth across the auto and non-auto segments. The company is confident about achieving its 2025 CoR target, supported by regulatory tailwinds on non-auto commission control and EVs’ improving CoR. PICC P&C also targets its total premium to outgrow GDP in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: HK$15.80.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI: A sharp contraction in overseas demand. Sector Healthcare: Drug innovators continue to drive market growth. Macau Gaming: Apr 25 GGR beat expectations; May Day Golden Week visitor arrivals expected to grow 4% yoy. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$52.20/Target: HK$68.00): 1Q25: Earnings disappoint; mainstream tools recovering in 2025 but visibility remains low. Maintain BUY. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/BUY/Rmb63.40/Target: Rmb70.80): 1Q25: Core net profit...
GREATER CHINA Sector Macau Gaming: Apr 25 GGR beat expectations; May Day Golden Week visitor arrivals expected to grow 4% yoy. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$52.20/Target: HK$68.00): 1Q25: Earnings disappoint; mainstream tools recovering in 2025 but visibility remains low. Maintain BUY. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/BUY/Rmb63.40/Target: Rmb70.80): 1Q25: Core net profit down 16% yoy; sequential improvement in Hainan duty-free sales. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/BUY/HK$18.94/Target: HK$30.00)...
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