We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed names and segments include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands China. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Fen Wine reported 3Q25 revenue of Rmb8,960m (+4% yoy), and net profit of Rmb2,899m (-1% yoy). By product, revenue from the Fen Wine series increased by 5% yoy, while revenue from other liquor products declined by 29% yoy. As of end- 3Q25, the company's contract liabilities stood at Rmb5,781m, up 5% yoy but down 3% qoq. Cash inflow from sales of goods and services was Rmb8,343m in 3Q25, down 3% yoy but up 20% qoq.
Top Stories Company Results | ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$83.85/Target: HK$104.00) ASMPT’s 3Q25 print missed expectations on a weaker product mix and one-off restructuring costs. Revenue was largely in line with the mid-point of its guidance, but gross margin was below expectations at 35.7% due to changes in product mix and inventory write-off from the restructuring. Nevertheless, ASMPT reported solid progress with TCB in both HBM4 and advanced logic C2W/C2S, while its mainstream tools continued to re...
We observed the following trends in holiday consumption: a) jewellery performed well on rising gold prices; b) retail and catering consumption was modest, with growth decelerating from that during the 2025 Spring Festival and Labour Day; c) specialty retail (duty-free) saw per capita spending improve; and d) consumers continued to show enthusiasm for tourism and leisure spending, with domestic long-haul travel and outbound travel gaining popularity. The lower-than-expected Macau visitor arrivals...
On 16 Sep 25, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other government departments jointly issued a plan to expand service consumption. This plan introduces 19 measures focusing on five areas. We highlight IP-related consumption and tourism as the two primary themes positioned to benefit the most. In addition, the government plans to optimise student vacation schedules by exploring the possibility of shortening winter and summer vacations while introducing spring and autumn vacations to increase the ...
In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
Fen Wine's 2Q25 revenue was largely flat, but net profit decreased by 13% yoy, primarily due to gross margin decline and an increase in sales tax. As of end-2Q25, the company’s contract liabilities stood at Rmb5,983m, up 4% yoy. By product, in 2Q25, revenue from the Fen Wine series increased by 1% yoy, while revenue from other liquor products declined by 4% yoy. Maintain BUY; lower target price by 6% to Rmb217.40.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Market Strategy “Anti-involution” is now a policy focus after President Xi Jinping vowed to manage “disorderly competition” during the CFEAC meeting in July. The concept covers a broader area than the 2016-17 supply-side reform, but we expect the government to address excess supply issues and encourage competition through quality and technology upgrades rather than price-cutting. Sector leaders with scale and R&D depth will consolidate their market shares and emerge win...
During the Labour Day holiday (1-5 May), Macau's visitor arrivals significantly beat the government's expectation. Retail and catering sales showed a modest improvement in terms of yoy growth compared with the Chinese New Year holiday, while home appliance sales continued to benefit from the trade-in programme, with premium products demonstrating robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the China consumer sector. Our top picks include CR Beer, Mengniu, and Moutai.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
Fen Wine's 2024 revenue missed but net profit was above our estimate. In 1Q25, revenue increased 8% yoy and net profit rose 6% yoy. Regional distribution remained largely stable in 1Q25. As at end-1Q25, contract liabilities increased 4% yoy. Looking ahead, Fen Wine aims for steady revenue growth in 2025. Maintain BUY; lower target price by 9% to Rmb231.40.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00) CCB delivered disappointing 1Q25 results as net profit declined 4.0%, dragged by NIM compression and tepid fee income. Furthermore, revenue growth was no longer supported by trading gains, as yields rebounded during 1Q25. Asset quality was a silver lining as CCB highlighted the sequential improvement in the retail and property developer segments. Management also noted that tariff risk is manageable in terms of...
On 16 March, the State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption, aiming to increase spending power by increasing income and reducing financial burdens, generate effective demand through high-quality supply, and improve the consumption environment to strengthen consumers’ willingness to spend. In the China consumer sector, we prefer Anta, CR Beer, Galaxy, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Yili. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Consumption during the CNY demonstrated a satisfactory momentum. Daily average sales revenue of consumer-related industries grew 11% yoy, with the home appliances and furnishing category recording the highest growth rate. Domestic tourism per capita spending increased 1% yoy and recovered to 95% of 2019’s level, and Hainan DF per capita spending rose 4% yoy. Macau visitations recovered to 95% of 2019’s level. In the China consumer space, we prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands Ch...
We do not expect a strong consumption momentum for the upcoming CNY holiday, but expect home appliance, Macau gaming, movie and retail to be the bright spots. We prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands in China’s consumer space.
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation Airlines: The three major airlines’ 2024 preliminary earnings estimates were below expectations – still loss-making. Healthcare TCM: GPO price pressure continues to cloud 2025’s growth outlook. Consumer CNY preview: Expect home appli...
We believe the baijiu industry will remain under pressure in 2025, given the ongoing macro headwinds. Against this backdrop, baijiu companies remain relatively conservative toward 2025, while they prioritise maintaining channel healthiness and stabilising wholesale prices as their key tasks. We lower the 2025 revenue and earnings forecasts for our baijiu coverage by 5-8%/5-9%. Downgrade the baijiu sector to UNDERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Positive signs despite weak credit demand. Sector Baijiu Industry remains under pressure; conservative tone toward 2025; channel healthiness and price stability the key focuses. Downgrade the baijiu sector to UNDERWEIGHT. Metals and Mining ...
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