reports
LION BREWERY CEYLON PLC: 1 director
A director at LION BREWERY CEYLON PLC bought 105,939 shares at 950.000LKR and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...
- Naveed Majeed
Sri Lanka: Equity Strategy - Deep Value Unveiled As Hyperinflation Sub...
* As hyperinflationary dynamics begin to subside, the residual effect has unveiled a large dislocation in valuations of listed domestic players. * Steep price increases taken by domestic firms have been more than enough to offset a decline in volumes over 2022, resulting in strong revenue and earnings growth to new highs, despite a deteriorating macro picture. With the expansion in bottom line to new highs, it is our view that valuations need to adjust accordingly with the risk premium ...
JKH.N0000 JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS PLC
ACL.N0000 ACL CABLES
CARG.N0000 CARGILLS (CEYLON) PLC
CCS.N0000 CEYLON COLD STORES
CTC.N0000 CEYLON TOBACCO
DIST.N0000 DISTILLERIES CO. OF SRI LANKA PLC
LLUB.N0000 CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC
HHL.N0000 HEMAS HOLDINGS
LION.N0000 LION BREWERY
NEST.N0000 NESTLE LANKA
GLAS.N0000 PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC
- Naveed Majeed
Sri Lanka: Consumer Sector Update 2023 - The Dividends of Recovery
* Steep price increases taken by domestic retail and consumer firms in 2022 were more than enough to offset a decline in volumes, resulting in strong revenue and earnings growth. * We saw a similar outcome unfolding in Turkey last year, where hyperinflation in the country led to record revenue and earnings growth for supermarket chains and consumer companies. * Recent electricity tariff and PAYE tax increases are negative headwinds for overall consumption in the near-term, but mode...
- Naveed Majeed
Lion Brewery Ceylon: 1Q FY23 - Strong market position to ease near-ter...
We use a 3-stage DCF model and arrive at a fair value of LKR 750.00/share (+45.6% upside; +53.5% TSR). LION reported a recurring EPS of LKR 25.13 for 1Q FY23 up 14.8% QoQ (+229.3% YoY). Revenues of LKR 21.3bn were up 12.1% QoQ (+101.9% YoY) mainly as successive price increases offset the impact of declining volumes. Following some near-term demand pressure, we expect a recovery in 2H FY23E with 1) improving economic conditions and 2) a pickup in tourist arrivals. EBIT margins of 12.7% were up...
- Naveed Majeed
Lion Brewery Ceylon: 1Q FY22 - Valuations attractive; however, likely ...
We value LION at a revised TP of LKR 655/share (-6.4% to old; +19.1% upside, +20.4% TSR). While valuations remain attractive, we downgrade to HOLD on the back of likely tax increases impacting the company. LION reported an EPS of LKR 7.63 for 1Q FY22, coming below our estimate of LKR 9.67 for the quarter. Revenues of LKR 10.6bn were down 28.5% QoQ, as travel restrictions impacted key selling channels. EBIT came in at LKR 914mn, with margins down 2.6pp QoQ (excluding a one-off impairment charg...
- Naveed Majeed
Lion Brewery Ceylon: 4Q FY21 - At-home consumption to lead FY22E volum...
We maintain our target price of LKR 700/share and, incorporating a FY22E dividend of LKR 11.00/share, arrive at a total return of +29.3%. BUY. Excluding the impact of a one-off impairment charge, LION reported an EPS of LKR 12.22 for 4Q FY21, coming above our estimate of LKR 10.46 for the quarter. Revenues picked up heading into the traditionally strong Avurudu (New Year) season as consumer demand recovered under a more normalised operating environment. Looking into FY22E, we expect a rebound...
- Lakshini Fernando
Sri Lanka: Consumer SL - "Steady as she goes"; a sturdy rebound in 202...
We expect the consumer sector to see a steady recovery, supported by a gradual rebound in economic activity and income levels. The sector looks to provide more sustainable long term growth, rather than growth fueled by government concession to consumers. From a macro perspective, consumer demand and spending are slated to increase on the back of historically low interest rates and low consumption taxes. A domestic focused economic growth agenda would support higher labor demand, particular...
- Naveed Majeed
Lion Brewery Ceylon: Sri Lanka: LION SL - Volumes to see steady recove...
We maintain our target price of LKR 700.00/share for LION and including a dividend of LKR 9.00/share, we derive a total return of +24.4%. BUY. Excluding one-off items in 3Q FY20, LION reported an EPS of LKR 9.78 in 3Q FY21, coming in below our estimates. Revenues were up 16.4% YoY to LKR 13.6bn, following strong volume growth in November and December. Heading into the Avurudu season, which was affected by lockdowns in 4Q FY20, we expect the pace of volume growth to continue. EBIT declined 14....
- Naveed Majeed
Lion Brewery Ceylon: 2Q FY21 - Volumes bounce back, driven by local de...
With demand returning to regular levels, albeit some disruption in the Western Province (WP), and no excise duty increases through the budget, we revise our 12-month target price to LKR 700.00/share (previously LKR 585.00/share). Including a DPS of LKR 8.00, we derive a total return of +31.1%. We revise our rating to a BUY from a HOLD. LION reported a 2Q FY21 recurring net profit of ~LKR 1.1bn, up 17.4% YoY, aided by a recovery in volumes. In 2H FY21E, while there is some disruption to demand...
- Mangalee Goonetilleke
Lion Brewery Ceylon: Local demand recovering faster; stronger pickup i...
With local demand tracking better than expected, we revise our DCF based (WACC of 14.8%) TP for Lion Brewery to LKR 585/share (previously LKR 525/share). Including a DPS of LKR 4.00, we derive a total return of +2.2%. HOLD. LION reported a 1Q FY21 recurring net profit of LKR 73mn compared to LKR 926mn in 1Q FY20 and significantly below our estimate for the quarter. Earnings were impacted worse than expected by the lockdown as LION lost sales from both domestic consumption and tourism. Post-l...
- Mangalee Goonetilleke
Lion Brewery Ceylon: No ‘fizz’ in demand till H2 FY 21
Including the impact on earnings from Covid-19, we value LION at LKR 525/share (previously LKR 680/share) on our DCF valuation. Including a dividend of LKR 4.00/share, we derive a total return of +6.1%. Reiterate Hold. For 4Q, LION reported a recurring net profit of LKR 750mn, down 9.4% YoY. Revenues were up 1.2% YoY aided by the price increase in March 2019, while volumes were down YoY as a result of loss of sales in the last weeks of March. EBIT margins declined by 4.6ppts YoY. Looking for...
- Mangalee Goonetilleke
Local volumes to recover faster as spending picks up; raise TP
On the back of the changes to our volume growth expectations, our revised estimates lead us to a DCF valuation-based (WACC 12.9%) target price upgrade of LKR680/share. Reiterate Buy. Growth in disposable income to drive demand for LION With the recently announced PAYE tax revisions, we expect consumers to see an expansion in disposable income, which bodes well for the alcohol industry. Within the sector, we believe LION continues to enjoy the advantage of being priced lower compared to hard l...
- Dishan Leo
JKSB: Quarterly Highlights: Lion Brewery Ceylon PLC (LION): 4QFY19
LION’s earnings for FY19 grew by 75% YoY supported by healthy growth in topline (+44% YoY) while an expansion in GP margins from 20.43% to 25.27% further strengthened bottom-line for the group. The re-adjustment of excise duty policies in November 2017 alongside steady growth in tourist arrivals over the past 18 months were key factors in the growth of revenues. Operating earnings continued to demonstrate strong growth (+72.10% YoY) due to a reduction in the operating costs to revenue ratio from...
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
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