Top Stories Sector Update | Banking Bond yields have risen as conflicts in the Middle East create uncertainties over the outlook for inflation. We now expect the Fed to pause rate cuts and keep the Fed Funds Rate stable at 3.5% in 2026. The OECD forecasts headline inflation in the US spiking temporarily to 4.2% in 2026, before falling to 1.6% in 2027. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top pick is DBS (BUY/Target: S$67.55) for its attractive 2026 dividend yield of 5.6%. We also like OCBC (BUY/Target: S$...
Top Stories Strategy | Monthly Market Radar Singapore equities extended gains in February, with the STI rising 1.8% to near the 5,000 level after reaching a record high above 5,040. Market sentiment was supported by steady manufacturing expansion and selective corporate strength, including Yangzijiang Shipbuilding’s strong earnings. Global markets remained cautious amid AI-related concerns, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raised risks of higher oil prices. Market Spotlight • US s...
Banks’ 4Q25 results were characterised by stability in NIM and sustainable growth in wealth management. In terms of asset quality, OCBC was more resilient, while DBS and UOB saw weaknesses from exposures to commercial real estate. Banks will consider returning capital to shareholders through special dividends if they cannot complete their share buyback programmes. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top pick is DBS for its attractive 2026 dividend yield of 5.6%. We also like OCBC for its strategic shift to...
NIM has started to stabilise, with NIM expanding 2bp qoq to 1.84% in 4Q25 and exit NIM remaining stable at 1.82% in Jan 26. Operating expenses declined 3% yoy, driven by a significant drop in staff costs. New NPL formation remained elevated at S$599m. Credit costs normalised to 19bp, helped by a write-back in general provision of S$59m. Management expects NPL formation to trend lower towards the normalised level at S$400m-500m per quarter in 2026. Credit costs are expected to stay within its gui...
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer The CNY consumption data exhibited accelerated growth momentum compared with the two Golden Weeks last year, which we view as early signs of a broader consumption recovery. We favour companies benefitting from: a) segments showing initial signals of recovery, such as restaurants; b) exposure to China’s structural consumption growth drivers, particularly in services and experiential consumption; c) potential policy tailwinds; and d) overseas growth. Our pref...
Top Stories Company Results | Centurion Accommodation REIT (CAREIT SP/BUY/S$1.13/Target: S$1.55) CAREIT’s net property income and DPU for 2025 were above IPO forecasts. The demand and supply dynamics for both of its PBWA and PBSA segments remain bullish in the near to medium term. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of S$1.55 implying a yield of 6.9% in 2027. Company Results | Genting Singapore (GENS SP/HOLD/S$0.79/Target: S$0.84) GENS’ weaker 4Q25 results reflect a lower VIP win rat...
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair has strengthened the Fed’s credibility in fighting inflation, leading to an abrupt unwind for safe haven assets. Liquidity exiting safe haven assets, such as the Singapore dollar, could lead to firmer domestic interest rates in 2026. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. The Fed regaining its credibility is supportive of our thesis that banks benefit from the Goldilocks economy. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65). DBS provides an attractive 20...
We expect 4Q25 to be characterised by moderation in NIM compression, sustainable growth in wealth management fees and benign asset quality. We project net profit of S$2,523m for DBS (flat yoy, -15% qoq) and S$1,747m for OCBC (+4% yoy, -12% qoq). Maintain OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65). DBS provides an attractive 2026 dividend yield of 5.6%. We are excited to hear the new CEO’s strategy, priorities and vision for OCBC.
Top Stories Sector Update | Banking We expect 4Q25 to be characterised by moderation in NIM compression, sustainable growth in wealth management fees and benign asset quality. We project net profit of S$2,523m for DBS (flat yoy, -15% qoq) and S$1,747m for OCBC (+4% yoy, -12% qoq). Maintain OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65). DBS provides an attractive 2026 dividend yield of 5.6%. We are excited to hear the new CEO’s strategy, priorities and vision for O...
Top Stories Sector Update | Banks We envisage a Goldilocks economy with steady growth accompanied by low inflation, the ideal balance for sustainable and lengthy economic expansion, supported by the Trump Administration’s new focus on affordability. We anticipate two rate cuts in 1H26 but none in 2H26. Banks provide resilient earnings with growth in non-interest income, including wealth management, offsetting negative impact from NIM compression. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) ...
Greater China Company Update | Baidu (9888 HK/BUY/HK$146.60/Target: HK$166.00) We are optimistic on Baidu as the Kunlunxin spin-off could help unlock financial value for Baidu and strengthen its AI ecosystem. Baidu announced that on 1 Jan 26, Kunlunxin applied for a listing on the HK Stock Exchange. Following the spin-off, Kunlunxin will remain a consolidated subsidiary, with Baidu retaining a controlling 59% stake. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$166.00 (US$185.00). Company ...
We envisage a Goldilocks economy with steady growth accompanied by low inflation, the ideal balance for sustainable and lengthy economic expansion, supported by the Trump Administration’s new focus on affordability. We anticipate two rate cuts in 1H26 but none in 2H26. Banks provide resilient earnings with growth in non-interest income, including wealth management, offsetting negative impact from NIM compression. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65) for att...
Top Stories Sector Update | Banking DBS and OCBC benefitted from spectacular surges in wealth management fees of 31% and 53% yoy respectively in 3Q25 as high-net-worth clients deployed their funds in investment products. UOB recognised one-off pre-emptive general allowances of S$615m in 3Q25 to strengthen its general provision coverage from 0.8% to 1.0% and loan loss coverage from 88% to 100%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Influx of safe haven liquidity would continue to keep domestic interest rate...
DBS and OCBC benefitted from spectacular surges in wealth management fees of 31% and 53% yoy respectively in 3Q25 as high-net-worth clients deployed their funds in investment products. UOB recognised one-off pre-emptive general allowances of S$615m in 3Q25 to strengthen its general provision coverage from 0.8% to 1.0% and loan loss coverage from 88% to 100%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Influx of safe haven liquidity would continue to keep domestic interest rates depressed. BUY OCBC (Target: S$20.22)...
A director at United Overseas Bank Ltd bought 150,000 shares at 33.758SGD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The anti-involution policy boosted OEMs’ 3Q25 earnings by ending the price war. However, the industry disruptor BYD saw worsened liquidity due to sales slowdown and inventory pile-up. Auto part companies saw margin erosion in 3Q25 due to delayed impacts from the OEMs’ price war, but 4Q25 margin will stabilise. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Cut target price for Li Auto to HK$60.0. Raise target price for Weich...
UOB’s net profit of S$443m for 3Q25 (-72% yoy and -67% qoq) was significantly below the consensus estimate of S$1,343m. New NPL formation was elevated at S$838m in 3Q25 due to exposures to commercial real estate in Greater China and the US. It also recognised pre-emptive general allowances of S$615m. UOB remains committed to its S$2b share buyback programme and dividend payout ratio of 50%.
Top Stories Company Results | DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP/HOLD/S$55.54/Target: S$55.50) Wealth management fees surged 31% yoy in 3Q25 due to brisk sales for investment products and bancassurance. AUM hit a new high of S$474b. New NPL formation was benign at S$113m. DBS wrote back general provisions of S$45m. Maintain HOLD. Target price: S$55.50. Company Results | Genting Singapore (GENS SP/BUY/S$0.73/Target: S$0.89) GENS’ stronger 3Q25 results reflect strengthening RWS footfall, better VIP vo...
Top Stories Asian Gems Corporate Highlights | United Overseas Bank (UOB SP/NOT RATED/S$34.54) UOB seeks to grow wholesale banking by financing regional supply chains. For retail banking, it aims to grow the invested AUM for wealth management. On a full-year basis, NIM could be at the bottom end of its previous guidance of 1.85-1.90% for 2025 due to the recent steep drop in 3M SORA. UOB intends to top up general provisions from 80bp to 90bp of gross loans, which would lead to high credit costs i...
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