EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
Delivering on FY’24 targets… – Sarantis delivered a solid performance in FY’24, with sales up 24% to €600m and EBIT rising 30% to €61m. Organic EBIT growth reached 14.7%, driven by a better product mix and efficiency gains. International sales surged 31%, supported by the Stella Pack acquisition (+15% uplift), while Greece saw a 10% increase. Net profit grew 17% to €46m, slightly below expectations due to one-off financial costs. Importantly, Sarantis beat guidance on most metrics and demonstrat...
Delivering on FY’24 targets… – Sarantis delivered a solid performance in FY’24, with sales up 24% to €600m and EBIT rising 30% to €61m. Organic EBIT growth reached 14.7%, driven by a better product mix and efficiency gains. International sales surged 31%, supported by the Stella Pack acquisition (+15% uplift), while Greece saw a 10% increase. Net profit grew 17% to €46m, slightly below expectations due to one-off financial costs. Importantly, Sarantis beat guidance on most metrics and demonstrat...
A director at GR Sarantis S.A. bought 2,750 shares at 12.641EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: conditional USD 420m agreement to buy leading MAC Group fitness chain in Türkiye POSITIVE • Inter Cars: February sales growth decelerates to 3% yoy NEGATIVE • CTP: issues EUR 1bn of green bonds in two tranches, 6Y and 10Y POSITIVE • Ford Otosan: signs agreement with Iveco to develop heavy truck cabin models NEUTRAL • Polish utilities: comments on electricity price freeze for 4Q25 NEUTRAL • Baltic Classifieds Group: acquires Lithuanian real estate valuation platform ...
Repeat of 2024, with different headwinds – Following a year in which Greek equities performed broadly in line with EU periphery stocks (but better than broad EU indices), 2025 looks somewhat trickier given international headwinds (e.g. tariffs, geopolitics). Easing monetary policy is certainly a positive, in the sense that it could justify higher valuations, but the overriding driver of re-rating would be a resolution of the war in Ukraine, as is the case for the EU as a whole. On the positive s...
Repeat of 2024, with different headwinds – Following a year in which Greek equities performed broadly in line with EU periphery stocks (but better than broad EU indices), 2025 looks somewhat trickier given international headwinds (e.g. tariffs, geopolitics). Easing monetary policy is certainly a positive, in the sense that it could justify higher valuations, but the overriding driver of re-rating would be a resolution of the war in Ukraine, as is the case for the EU as a whole. On the positive s...
EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
Solid 9-month execution – Sarantis announced solid 9-month results, growing revenues 11%, EBITDA 14% and EBIT 15%, all like-for-like, while adding some €59m in revenues and €5.5m in EBIT from Stella Pack in the period. The EBIT margin settled at 10.6%, up by 16bps yoy and above the targeted 10.2% for year-end. Q3’24 did see decelerating performance vs H1, mainly driven by higher costs vs Q3 last year, with like-for like EBIT down 5.8% on sequentially slower growth in revenues (+7.3% lfl). Howeve...
Solid 9-month execution – Sarantis announced solid 9-month results, growing revenues 11%, EBITDA 14% and EBIT 15%, all like-for-like, while adding some €59m in revenues and €5.5m in EBIT from Stella Pack in the period. The EBIT margin settled at 10.6%, up by 16bps yoy and above the targeted 10.2% for year-end. Q3’24 did see decelerating performance vs H1, mainly driven by higher costs vs Q3 last year, with like-for like EBIT down 5.8% on sequentially slower growth in revenues (+7.3% lfl). Howeve...
HEADLINES: • Footshop (FTSHP CP): a sneakerhead’s dream – soft coverage (NOT RATED) • Poland macro: weaker consumption boosts prospects for early rate cuts • Sarantis: 3Q trading update in line, FY24E guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: MNB signals a longer pause • PKO BP: CEO Midera gives the gist of key strategic directions in Puls Biznesu interview NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: Wakacje.pl and Itaka extend cooperation NEUTRAL • Metlen Energy & Metals: 9M24 trading update preview (due ou...
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: 3Q24 traffic, margin descent underway • LPP: regulator initiates proceedings against the company, on the miscommunication of the departure from Russia NEGATIVE • GEVORKYAN: successfully issues EUR 7.5m from the second tranche of its green bond NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (14-20 October) • Sarantis: 3Q24 trading update preview (due on 23 October) • Budimex: 3Q24E EBITDA flat yoy (due on 28 October) • PKO BP: 3Q24E preview (due on 7 November) • OTP Ba...
EME Equity Market - September 2024 EME indices mostly in the red in September; rebound in Greece. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 2.0% in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms in September. The Greek ASE Index was the best performer in our region, advancing 1.4% mom in EUR terms. Muted performances were seen in Czechia and Hungary (+0.3% and +0.2% mom, respectively in EUR terms), with declines in Poland, Romania and Turkey (-3.6%, -2.9% and -1.5% mom, respectively in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • cyber_Folks: 2Q24 results review – 21% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth, 4% above our estimate POSITIVE • Sarantis: 1H24 EBITDA up 45% yoy, 8% ahead of our expectations; FY24E guidance maintained POSITIVE • Vercom: 2Q24 results review – 29% yoy EBITDA growth, 6% above our estimate POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: reflections on the consequences of a weak Germany • Kazakhstan macro: Tokayev’s 2024 state-of-the-nation address • Türkiye macro: GDP underperforms in 2Q • 4iG: key takeaways from ...
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: solid bottom-line print in 2Q24 POSITIVE • Duna House: 2Q24 – EBITDA up 40% yoy in Italy POSITIVE • 4iG: 2Q24 results review – 4% yoy drop in reported EBITDA NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: key takeaways from the 1H24 conference call NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (25 August-1 September) • Mo-BRUK: Public Procurement Office (KIO) rejects MBR’s appeal regarding tender in Szczecin NEUTRAL • Sarantis: 1H24E preview – 34% yoy EBITDA growth expected, on Stella and or...
EME Equity Market – June 2024 Another positive month for most of the EME indices, with the Hungarian BUX Index outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 1.0% in EUR terms, but declined -0.2% in USD terms in June. The Hungarian BUX index reported the strongest performance, adding 4.8% in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Polish WIG20 (+3.7% and 2.1%, in EUR terms, respectively), and the Turkish ISE30 (+0.9% in EUR terms). Greece and the Czech Republic were in negative territor...
Due to a change in analyst responsibilities, we transfer coverage of Sarantis, reiterating our BUY rating on the stock, with our 12M price target (PT) upped to EUR 13.0/share, from EUR 8.2/share. We see Sarantis as a perfect play on the expansion of the CEE consumer staples sector, without facing the direct headwind of the price war on the Polish grocery market. Following decades of international expansion, CEE reached c.70% of the company’s 2023PF sales and EBIT, with Poland becoming the larges...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
Solid Guidance, confident message, strong Buy – Sarantis mgt laid out a solid growth trajectory, guiding for c12% organic EBIT CAGR in the 2024-28e period following +30% growth in 2024e (of which 14% organic). Driving this material profit uplift will be strong organic top line growth (5-7%) underpinned by the focus on value-accretive “hero” products, SKU rationalization, organizational improvements and further streamlining of costs. Overall, Sarantis looks headed for EBIT near €76-77m by 2026e, ...
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