EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
Solid Guidance, confident message, strong Buy – Sarantis mgt laid out a solid growth trajectory, guiding for c12% organic EBIT CAGR in the 2024-28e period following +30% growth in 2024e (of which 14% organic). Driving this material profit uplift will be strong organic top line growth (5-7%) underpinned by the focus on value-accretive “hero” products, SKU rationalization, organizational improvements and further streamlining of costs. Overall, Sarantis looks headed for EBIT near €76-77m by 2026e, ...
Solid Guidance, confident message, strong Buy – Sarantis mgt laid out a solid growth trajectory, guiding for c12% organic EBIT CAGR in the 2024-28e period following +30% growth in 2024e (of which 14% organic). Driving this material profit uplift will be strong organic top line growth (5-7%) underpinned by the focus on value-accretive “hero” products, SKU rationalization, organizational improvements and further streamlining of costs. Overall, Sarantis looks headed for EBIT near €76-77m by 2026e, ...
HEADLINES: • Huuuge Games: 4Q23 slightly above the consensus; up to USD 70m buyback announced (14% yield) POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 4Q23 results – weaker than expected NEGATIVE • Enea: announces significant impairment charges (PLN 2.9bn) affecting the FY23 figures NEGATIVE • MONETA Money Bank/Komercni Banka: negative impact from the drop in mortgage rates NEGATIVE • MOL: updated strategy for 2030E – conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Sarantis: key takeaways from the Investor Day • Allegro: key ta...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: good news and challenges – the state of play in March • Aegean Airlines: caps off another strong year with a good 4Q, to pay out a EUR 0.75 DPS POSITIVE • Sarantis: 2H23 results slightly above guidance NEUTRAL • National Bank of Greece: 4Q23 and 2024-26E outlook highlights • Budimex: annual conference takeaways – targeting maintaining 2024E revenues and margins flat yoy NEUTRAL • Nuclearelectrica: shareholders called to approve continuation of SMR project, based...
Two Directors at GR Sarantis S.A. bought 28,700 shares at between 8.601EUR and 8.601EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 62/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the...
HEADLINES: • Poland macro: NBP extends wait-and-see stance • Greece macro: GDP underperforms in 3Q • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • Georgia Capital: postcard from Prague • Mytilineos: postcard from Prague • Sarantis: postcard from Prague • Richter: postcard from Prague • 11 bit studios: postcard from Prague • Asseco Poland: postcard from Prague • Benefit Systems: postcard from Prague • Orange Polska: postcard from Prague • Shoper: postcard from Pr...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • Ten Square Games: 4Q22 adjusted EBITDA broadly as expected, 1Q23 trading update disappoints slightly NEUTRAL • Sarantis: 2H22 results review - supportive sales, but persistent costs erode yoy profitability • Cyfrowy Polsat: 4Q22 preliminary results review - weak quarter, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Echo Investment: 4Q22 - revaluation loss, opex and financing costs lower than we expected NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: MNB pushes back against rate cut bets • Huuuge Games: earnings...
2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...
2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • Electrica: 3Q22 net profit jumps to RON 709m, in line with our expectations • GTC: 3Q22 in line, FFO slightly ahead of last year's level, LTV at 44% NEUTRAL • Sarantis: 9M22 - sales up 10% yoy, erosion in profitability due to high cost environment • Poland macro: 3Q GDP rebounds • Romania macro: on track to stand out next year • Hungary macro: downturn likely to have commenced • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 3Q22 earnings call NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: takeaways f...
Industry bumps in 2022 – Greek consumer stocks are down c9% on average since the start of the war in Ukraine, weighed down by de-risking and rising uncertainty regarding the near-term outlook. Stocks more severely affected have been small caps/less liquid names, with OPAP and Jumbo standing out as outperformers thanks to solid operating momentum, more visibility around near-term earnings and – in OPAP’s case – a very compelling 2-digit dividend yield putting a cap on the downside risk. … with ...
Industry bumps in 2022 – Greek consumer stocks are down c9% on average since the start of the war in Ukraine, weighed down by de-risking and rising uncertainty regarding the near-term outlook. Stocks more severely affected have been small caps/less liquid names, with OPAP and Jumbo standing out as outperformers thanks to solid operating momentum, more visibility around near-term earnings and – in OPAP’s case – a very compelling 2-digit dividend yield putting a cap on the downside risk. … with ...
EME Equity Market – September 2022 Market performance – in a rough month for the markets, Turkey emerges as the top-performing region, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 8.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.7% mom in USD in September; while the ISE index outperformed all the other indices once again, but with a muted performance this time, adding just 1.0% mom in EUR terms and 0.1% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded negative performances, with the Czech PX Index losing 4....
HEADLINES: • Sarantis: 1H22 results review - resilient sales, weaker net profit • DataWalk: preliminary 2Q22 results - sales up 32% yoy, to PLN 13.98m NEGATIVE • Europe macro: ECB turns hawkish talk into action • Turkish Airlines: August traffic - RPK up 16% vs. August 2019, load factor better vs. pre-pandemic POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: management sees room for "significant" improvement in FY22E adjusted EBITDA yoy POSITIVE • Inter Cars: August sales growth accelerates to 27% yoy POSITIVE • Mot...
HEADLINES: • Sarantis Group: the advantage of pricing power (upgraded to BUY) • Ten Square Games: 2Q22 adjusted EBITDA broadly as we expected (18% consensus miss) NEUTRAL • European energy: Europe without Russian gas • Magyar Telekom: reaches agreement with trade unions, resulting in levered expenses NEGATIVE • Orange Polska: increases price for Orange Love convergent bundle by PLN 5/month effectively POSITIVE • European oil and gas monthly: August 2022 • STS Group: 2Q22E results - 15% yoy EB...
In this report, we have updated our forecasts to account for: 1) the sale of the Estee Lauder joint venture stake; 2) the acquisition of Polish households products company, Stella Pack; and 3) the company’s tactics to mitigate the rise in input costs. We derive a 12M price target (PT) of EUR 8.20/share, offering 37% upside potential, and have upgraded our recommendation to BUY. Despite the persistent inflationary environment, we believe that Sarantis Group is well-positioned to manage the headwi...
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