Highlights • FWA expansion. The 1.4 GHz auction this 13 October targets low-cost fixed wireless access with Telkom, DSSA, and WIFI competing. • Tower upside. The 1.4 GHz rollout provides clear incremental tenancy opportunities for tower operators, potentially improving tenancy ratios.
Economics | Indonesian Consumer Activity: Assessing 3Q Slowdown And Path To 4Q Recovery Indonesian consumer activity weakened in Aug 25, with retail sales growth slowing to 3.5% yoy. This was driven by eroding purchasing power and low consumer confidence due to layoffs. The impact is evident in the pressured retail, automobile and banking sectors. Consequently, 3Q25 economic growth is projected to stagnate at 4.9-5.1%. A recovery to 5.2-5.5% is forecast for 4Q25, fuelled by accelerated governmen...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in September 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on...
A director at XLSmart Telecom Sejahtera Tbk Pt bought 600,000 shares at 2,663.333IDR and the significance rating of the trade was 66/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the...
Highlights • A new focus on cash flow and likely higher dividend payout will improve Telkom’s ROE and shareholders’ dividend yield (we now expect 7%). We expect net profit to grow 5% next year, with upside if management is more successful in cost management – this is a turnaround from a 2% profit decline this year. • Telkom is reviewing all its businesses – it may seek outside investors, which could either propel the growth of its mobile business, or improve dividend yield (if sold and paid out ...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV sales rebounded last week, with PEV growth surging from below 5% to over 30% due to subsidies and new models. Geely and XPeng led, while BYD and Li Auto lagged. Vehicle exports rose 26% yoy in August, driven by gains in the EU, Africa, and Middle East. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL (target price raised to Rmb520) and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Update | Healthcare Falling interest rates are expected to significant...
Economics | Analysis of Rupiah Depreciation The Indonesian rupiah recently depreciated to a five-month low, contrasting with a favourable external environment. This pressure stems from domestic capital outflows, driven by investor concerns over fiscal management and new nationalist policies. Despite this, economic impact is expected to be limited due to resilient financial market foundations, low inflationary pass-through and potential export benefits. Future pressure is expected from divergent ...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has affirmed the Baa3 long-term issuer rating of XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk (P.T.) (XLSMART). The outlook has been revised to negative from stable. "The change in outlook to negative reflects our expectation that XLSMART's credit metrics will weaken over the next 12–1...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in August 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on de...
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade: July’s data beats expectations, further near-term strength likely. Sector Automobile: Weekly: YOY PV sales growth remains negative for three straight weeks. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Initiate Coverage Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co (002050 CH/BUY/Rmb27.37/Target: Rmb36.50): Innovative Thermal management leader driving sustainable growth. Initiate coverage with BUY. Target price: Rmb36.50 for A-share, HK$40.00 fo...
6M25 EBITDA reached Rp36t, somewhat in line with our expectations (47.0%) and consensus’ (47.3%), but 6M25 NPAT (Rp11t) was slightly below our estimate (45.6%) and consensus’ (45.8%). There are early signs of optimism on Indonesia’s macroenvironment given the government spending in June 25, but it may take several quarters to drive a full multiplier effect. TLKM trims its 2025 revenue growth (yoy) target to flat (vs low-single digit previously). Maintain HOLD. Target price: Rp2,900.
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in July 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on deve...
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Rebound falters, weighed down by weaker construction and input cost pressures. Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales pressured by anti-involution initiatives. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.26/Target: HK$12.00) ...
TOWR saw a slower revenue trend in Q2 across all segments, except for Tower which maintained growth at just under 3%. This was aided by the consolidation of IBST in 3Q24. Although YTD performance is still aligned with the full year’s guidance, there is risk of further slowdown as it laps the IBST consolidation next quarter if the pace of non-Towers growth remains unchanged.
Telkomsel launched a new starter pack with higher headline pricing (40% above previous starter pack) in Mar 25. This is also part of its gradual effort to simplify its product portfolio (target: 200SKUs). Telkomsel views the current market consolidation as a positive sign going forward. We expect a dividend payout of 65% from 2026 NPAT, implying a DPS of Rp158 (5.6% yield). This partly reflects analysts’ session with TLKM’s new management. Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of Rp2,900.
Following a similar note we published on the EM Telco sector, we apply the same consistent approach to Equity FCF for Global EM Towers. We have preferred Telcos over Towers for some time, as the drivers of upside for the Telcos (consolidation and declining capital intensity) is a headwind for the Towers.
Tower revenue trends were slower across the board except for India’s Indus Tower as it benefited from VIL’s network catch up spend. However, EBITDA margins are improving except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. Sector Online Games Upcoming new game releases to capitalise on the summer holiday season. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June Our new alpha picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA...
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