Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebalancing Our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 10.2%. January volatility hit the JCI after MSCI flagged free float transparency and investability risks, reversing record highs into foreign-led sell-offs and a late-month correction. In response, regulators are shifting from short-term stabilisation toward structural repair, with greater emphasis on transparency and investability. The strategy pivots towards liquid and dividend-paying blu...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Economics | Indonesia Headline Inflation Rises On Low-base Effect, Core Inflation Remains Stable Indonesia's headline inflation rose to 3.55% yoy in Jan 26, primarily driven by temporary base effects from last year's low electricity tariffs and high global gold prices. However, core inflation remained stable at 2.45%, and prices fell mom due to a strong food harvest. This indicates underlying demand pressures are still contained. Consequently, Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its benchmark...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in January 2026. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on ...
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Highlights • JCI declined by -7.2% over the past three trading days after the freeze on ...
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Company Results | Darma Henwa (DEWA IJ/BUY/Rp540/Target: Rp1,500) DEWA delivered in-line ...
Strategy | JCI Trading Halt On MSCI Announcement The JCI was halted with an intraday peak decline of 8.8% on MSCI’s free float methodology decision, led by large-cap and conglomerate stocks. On 28 Jan 26, MSCI concluded its consultation, citing concerns over shareholder transparency and possible coordinated trading. MSCI imposed an interim freeze for Feb 26, with no index additions, no upward FIF or NOS changes, and no size migration, while exclusions remain possible. Persistent issues by May 26...
Strategy | JCI Trading Halt On MSCI Announcement The JCI was halted with an intraday peak decline of 8.8% on MSCI’s free float methodology decision, led by large-cap and conglomerate stocks. On 28 Jan 26, MSCI concluded its consultation, citing concerns over shareholder transparency and possible coordinated trading. MSCI imposed an interim freeze for Feb 26, with no index additions, no upward FIF or NOS changes, and no size migration, while exclusions remain possible. Persistent issues by May 26...
Company Update | Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp3,850/Target: Rp4,200) We maintain our BUY rating with a higher target price of Rp4,200 (from Rp4,000), supported by stronger pricing discipline following the XL Smart merger and TLKM’s asset value-unlocking strategy. Mobile ARPU is improving in 2026, while the fibre carve-out into TIF and the planned sale of a 20-30% stake at a premium offer valuation upside. Additional catalysts include potential divestments in data centres, AdMedika, property, ...
Economics | The Liquidity Paradox: Strong M2 Growth Amid Subdued Demand In Indonesia In 2025, Indonesia’s M2 growth hit a four-year high (9.6%), fuelled by central bank bond purchases, though credit demand stayed subdued. This liquidity boosted asset prices but weakened the rupiah. For 2026, growth is expected to accelerate amid supportive policies and confidence. Inflation should remain manageable, staying within the 1.5-3.5% target range. Bank Indonesia is likely to cut rates in 2H26, maintain...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property In 2025, CR Land and COLI saw 15-20% yoy profit declines and Longfor’s core profit may turn from positive to negative due to weak DP margins. For 2026, the outlook remains constrained, though as it is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, SOEs are expected to have clearer growth targets. In Jan 26, new-home sales in 28 major cities fell 40% yoy, while second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities declined 4% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT, but we se...
Greater China Economics | Trade Exports growth accelerated to 6.6% yoy in December (+0.7ppt mom), well above consensus, supported by strong shipments growth to Hong Kong and ASEAN, while exports growth to the US weakened further. Import growth surged to 5.7% yoy (+3.8ppt mom), beating expectations amid broad-based commodity recovery. Trade surplus widened to US$114.1b. Growths of motor vehicle, hi-tech, and mechanical & electrical exports strengthened. Overall, December’s trade data is marke...
In our inaugural Asia Monthly for 2026, we share our regional credit outlook for the year, with a focus on China, Macau, India and Indonesia. We also provide a review of 2025, in which we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements for the year. In addition, we provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases in December 2025, summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well a...
Strategy | Liquidity Tailwinds And Flow Momentum Drive JCI Upside Equity markets are supported by renewed foreign inflows, rising commodity prices, and improving liquidity. Net equity inflows turned positive at US$169.6m over the past one month, while key commodities posted strong gains. Narrowing yield spreads (10-year bond yield minus LQ45 dividend yield) and improving money supply growth reinforce a preference for equity over bonds. Greater intervention by Bank Indonesia to support the rupiah...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand remained under pressure in Jan 26, with both new-home sales and secondary-home transactions continuing to post sharp yoy declines. Land market activity weakened notably toward the end of 2025, while capital and demand were further concentrated in a small number of strong Tier 1-2 cities, underscoring persistent divergence across regions amid still-soft market sentiment. We remain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector, and expect high polic...
Strategy | Liquidity Tailwinds And Flow Momentum Drive JCI Upside Equity markets are supported by renewed foreign inflows, rising commodity prices, and improving liquidity. Net equity inflows turned positive at US$169.6m over the past one month, while key commodities posted strong gains. Narrowing yield spreads (10-year bond yield minus LQ45 dividend yield) and improving money supply growth reinforce a preference for equity over bonds. Greater intervention by Bank Indonesia to support the rupiah...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Strong Performance In December The JCI closed strong at the end of Dec 25 (+1.6% mom, +22.1% yoy). Our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 17.7% mom, driven by ENRG, DEWA, ARCI, JPFA, and ASSA, while MDKA was flat and TLKM and BBCA underperformed. We maintain our portfolio focus on US dollar-linked earnings and resilient bottom-up picks. We drop DEWA as it has reached our target price, and add HRUM and NCKL. Highlights • The JCI closed strong at the end of Dec 25 (+1.6% mo...
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