reports
- Chris Hoare
Indonesian Telcos Q4 23 review: Strong execution from XL and Indosat;...
Despite Telkom being hit by a series of one-offs in Q4, industry mobile revenue and ARPU trends are still reflective of the benign competitive landscape. EBITDA also improved for both XL and Indosat, with capex intensity improved across the board. Moreover, recent news flow suggests that the XL and Smartfren merger is closer than before. Finally, we also raised our price target for Indosat to IDR12.5k from IDR11k as we layer on higher broadband revenue as it vies for share in the fixed industry.
- Chris Hoare
- Paula Ruth
Indosat (ISAT IJ) - 4Q23: Net Profit Jumped 66% Yoy From Sale And Leas...
ISAT’s 2023 EBITDA grew strongly by 23% yoy, above our expectations but in line with consensus’. After acquiring MNC Play’s subscribers, ISAT’s number of home broadband subscribers rose to 337,000 subscribers in 4Q23 vs 6,000 subscribers in 3Q23. ISAT targets to achieve 8-10% of the home broadband market by 2026. We expect both revenue and EBITDA of ISAT to grow by 6% yoy in 2024. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp11,300.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Monday, February 12, 2024
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Syariah (BTPS IJ/HOLD/Rp1,650/Target: Rp1,700): 4Q23: Net profit down 69% qoq; write-off remains high in 2024. Indosat (ISAT IJ/BUY/Rp9,500/Target: Rp11,300): 4Q23: Net profit jumped 66% yoy from sale and lease-back of data centres. TRADERS’ CORNER Bank BTPN Syariah (BTPS IJ): Technical BUY Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ): Technical BUY
- Chris Hoare
ASEAN Telcos Outlook 2024; Continued market repair in Indonesia, Thai...
After a decent 2023, in 2024 we are likely to see further evidence of market repair in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia driven by consolidation in both Mobile and Broadband. The economic outlook in the region is generally positive too, helped by post-Covid tailwinds, and China decoupling.
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – ISAT Would Be The Beneficiary From Home’s Fixed B...
ISAT on 27 November announced its collaboration with MNC Play by acquiring over 300,000 subscribers. This could give rise to slightly positive sentiment on ISAT as it gives more clarity on its potential inorganic growth in the fixed broadband/fixed mobile convergence business. EXCL has yet to announce the recent progress of its synergy with LINK (top 2 player in fixed broadband market). The impact might be roughly priced in for now as ISAT’s share price jumped 4% on 29 Nov 23. Maintain OVERWEIGH...
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Chris Hoare
Indonesian Telcos Q3 23 review: IndiHome/Telkomsel merger sparking in...
Following several weaker quarters, Q3 marked something of a turnaround for Telekom Indonesia with stronger net adds on both mobile and broadband side. It would appear that the closing of the IndiHome/Telkomsel merger in July has catalysed better performance. With market repair continuing and Enterprise also better, we think the stock should start to perform better and remain Buyers.
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Malaysia Research Team
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Singapore Research Team
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, November 01, 2023
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Top 100 developers’ Oct 23 sales weaker than expected; government housing supply to accelerate. Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$19.52/Target: HK$28.20): 3Q23: In line; margins compressed by lacklustre demand and high coal prices. Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$14.88/Target: HK$22.50): 3Q23: Slight miss; expect a better 4Q23. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$7.95/Target: HK$9.30): 3Q23: Results below expectations; outlook still cautious but valuatio...
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
ISAT INDOSAT
600585 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
601919 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS A
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
2359 WUXI APPTEC CO LTD
TWC TIONG WOON CORPORATION HOLDING
- Paula Ruth
Indosat (ISAT IJ) - 3Q23: Stellar Growth In EBITDA (+24% yoy) And Core...
ISAT reported 3Q23 EBITDA of Rp6.1t, up 24% yoy and 0.5% qoq, in line with our and consensus’ expectation. ISAT expects margin to continue improving along with the realisation of synergies between ISAT and Hutchinson Tri after the effective merger since early-22. ISAT is also expanding its services to new areas, including rural areas in the eastern part of Indonesia. We expect EBITDA to grow by 16% yoy in 2023 and 9% yoy in 2024. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp11,100.
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
Indonesia Daily - Wednesday, November 1, 2023
Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ/BUY/Rp1,005/Target: Rp1,420): 3Q23: NPAT rose 79.3% qoq on high handover seasonality; above expectations. Indosat (ISAT IJ/BUY/Rp9,450/Target: Rp11,100): 3Q23: Stellar growth in EBITDA (+24% yoy) and core profit (+98% yoy). TRADERS’ CORNER Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ): Technical BUY Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ): Technical BUY
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – Data Traffic To Grow 18% yoy In 2024; Maintain OV...
We expect data revenue to rise 10%/9% yoy in 2023/24, mainly due to data traffic growth. The upcoming Election Day in Feb 24 may also help increase data traffic by at least 7% vs a normal day. We also believe fixed broadband revenue could accelerate slightly by 10% yoy in 2024 (2023: 9% yoy). For tower companies, fibre-to-the-tower could become an additional growth driver. We expect TOWR's revenue from FTTT and connectivity services to grow 29%/24% yoy in 2023/24 respectively. Maintain OVERWEIGH...
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Paula Ruth
Indosat (ISAT IJ) - Expansion To Outer Java Might Limit Short-term Mar...
We expect ISAT’s ARPU to rise 7% yoy in 2024. ISAT is expanding to Outer Java to partly drive 9% yoy revenue growth in 2024. Strong core earnings growth of 27% yoy is expected in 2024, but higher spending in Outer Java could limit EBITDA margin expansion (2024: 45.6%, 2023: 45.5%). Downgrade ISAT to HOLD as the share price has risen 61.1% in the past one year and even with our valuation method, this still implies a +1SD EV/EBITDA.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Jo Yee Ng
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Philip Wong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, October 18, 2023
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines Sep 23 operating data: pax load performance below expectations; overcapacity issue remains. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Gaming: Marketing feedback: Be selective; eyes on cost management amid intensified competition. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Initiate Coverage Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb66.49/Target: Rmb105.00): Leading intelligent lightweight chassis solution provider in China. Initiate coverage with BUY. Target price: Rmb105.00. Results Fuyao Glass I...
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Indonesia Telcos & Towers – Feedback from Meetings in Jakarta
We came away reaffirmed on the positive outlook for mobile market repair but remain cautious on the competitive dynamics in the broadband space. H2 should be significantly better than a (weak) H1, and Telkom remains our preferred pick in the medium term.
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – Fixed Broadband Remains Attractive Despite Starli...
Although Starlink, a satellite internet provider, might aim to operate directly as a business-to-consumer (B2C) player in Indonesia, we think the potential impact to the telco sector is still relatively minor for now. This considers our observation that the prices of certain Indihome and XL Satu Fiber products are still way more attractive (52- 65% cheaper) than Starlink's standard plan prices for two other Southeast Asian countries. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector with ISAT and TOWR as our to...
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Indonesian Telcos Q2 23 review: Market repair story gaining momentum
The Indonesian mobile market repair story is gaining pace as ARPU growth improved to +9.7% YoY. Mobile service revenue continue to trend in the mid-single digit range; EBITDA growth also improved for all three operators. As a result, Indosat upgraded its EBITDA margin guide to mid-high 40% (from mid 40%) while XL upgraded topline growth to high single digit (from MSD-HSD).
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.