Positon Of Strength Highlights Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) 2H25 Financial Stability report highlights continued improvements in banking system resilience and key financial metrics. This reinforces confidence that the sector is entering the current external headwinds from a position of strength. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Amid ongoing Middle East geopolitical uncertainties, we adopt a barbell strategy, favouring Public Bank and Hong Leong Bank for their defensive profiles and capital management ...
Seizing Opportunity Amid Uncertainty Highlights The sector continues to offer attractive dividend yields in excess of 5%, with further capital management upside remaining intact. Even with a severe case scenario of a 50bp OPR cut, we estimate sector earnings would decline by only ~6%, with dividend yields still holding at an attractive ~5.2%, Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Amid the ongoing Middle East geopolitical uncertainties, we adopt a barbell strategy, favouring Public Bank and Hong Leong Bank ...
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity Economic activity in 2M26 broadly surprised to the upside. Industrial production accelerated to 6.3% yoy, while retail sales recovered to 2.8% yoy. FAI ytd rebounded to 1.8% yoy, beating expectations of a contraction, supported by strong infrastructure spending and a marked improvement in property FAI ytd to −11.1% yoy. However, it remains to be seen if the rebound is sustainable, as February’s PMI remained in contractionary territory at 49.0. Se...
4Q25: Steady Showing Highlights 4Q25 earnings are in line with, 2025 earnings representing 100% of our/consensus full-year estimates. 4Q25 earnings rose 2% qoq, lifted by writebacks in provisions and NIM recovery. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of RM5.55 (1.70x 2026F P/B, ROE: 13.3%) from RM5.25 as we roll forward our valuation to 2027 to capture the sector’s mediumterm steady earnings growth and capital management runway. We remain positive on Public Bank for its potential provis...
Greater China Strategy | Hong Kong Budget 2026-27 The 2026-27 Budget marks a shift from deficit spending to structural consolidation, projecting a HK$22.1b surplus (0.6% of GDP) from last year’s HK$67.0b deficit (2% of GDP), which will lift fiscal reserves from 8 months to 10 months of government expenditure. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.5-3.5% yoy, with CPI at 1.7% yoy. Policy prioritises Northern Metropolis and AI investment, while property measures have turned more prudent, raising luxur...
Steady Fundamentals With Capital Management Upside Highlights The banking sector’s Nov 25 stats remained resilient despite macro headwinds. Loan growth was at 5.2%, GIL ratio near historical lows and liquidity stayed healthy. We expect sector earnings to grow 3%/5% in 2025/26 respectively. Earnings resilience is underpinned by an around 5% loan growth, stable credit costs, stable NIM in 2026, and potential non-interest income upside. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We remain constructive on the secto...
Greater China Economics | PMI December Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, back in the expansionary zone for the first time since March. Non-manufacturing PMI also improved at 50.2 (+0.7pt mom), driven by a rebound in construction activity, while services PMI remained slightly contractionary pointing to weak domestic demand. Enterprise PMI showed divergent trends, with large firms leading the improvement. Overall, the December data points to uneven recovery despite the positive headline numbers....
3Q25: Strong Recovery In Non-Interest Income Highlights 3Q25 earnings are in line, with 9M25 earnings representing 74%/75% of our/consensus full-year estimates. 3Q25 earnings rose 5% qoq despite an 8bp NIM compression after July’s 25bp OPR cut. Growth was driven by a 19% qoq rise in non-interest income - unit trust (+17%) and trading (+21%) - and lower net credit cost of 1bp, with asset quality remaining benign Maintain BUY and target price of RM5.25 (1.66x 2026F P/B, ROE: 12.6%). We remai...
Greater China Company Results | Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$17.20/Target: HK$42.00 Geely’s 3Q25 results meet expectations with GAAP net profit/core net profit growing 58%/19% yoy and 6%/24% qoq to Rmb3.82b/Rmb3.96b respectively. Earnings growth will be driven by a strong product cycle, optimisation of sales mix, penetration into overseas markets, and consolidation of its brand portfolios. We maintain our 2025-27 earnings estimates. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$42.00 pegged...
Improving Fundamentals Depite Macro Headwinds Highlights The banking sector’s Sep 25 stats remained resilient despite macro headwinds. Loan growth inched upwards to 5.5%, asset quality improved further with GIL at historical lows and liquidity stayed healthy with LDR below 89%. We expect sector earnings to grow 3%/5% in 2025/26 respectively. Earnings resilience is underpinned by an around 5% loan growth, stable credit costs, manageable NIM pressure, and potential non-interest income upside. ...
Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...
Stable Performance Amid Macro Pressures Highlights The banking sector’s Aug 25 stats remained resilient despite macro headwinds. Loan growth held steady at 5.4%, asset quality improved with GIL at historical lows, and liquidity stayed healthy with LDR below 90%. We expect sector earnings to grow 3%/5% in 2025/26 respectively. Earnings resilience is underpinned by an around 5% loan growth, stable credit costs, manageable NIM pressure, and potential non-interest income upside. Maintain OVERW...
Solid Under Pressure We expect sector earnings to grow 3%/5% in 2025/26 respectively, with a stronger rebound in 2026 as deposits reprice lower, lifting NIM (+2bp). Earnings resilience is underpinned by an about 5% loan growth, stable credit costs, manageable NIM pressure, and potential non-interest income upside. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We remain constructive on the sector. Valuations remain appealing, with the sector trading at a mean P/B of 1.10x and offering an attractive dividend yield o...
2Q25: Growth Holds Firm Amid Higher Costs Public Bank’s 2Q25 earnings came in marginally below expectations due to one-off legal costs. Nonetheless, PPOP rose a commendable 7% yoy in 1H25. We maintain our BUY rating and target price of RM5.25 (1.66x 2026F P/B, 12.6% ROE). With its valuation near pandemic lows (-1.5SD below mean) and the sector’s strongest provision buffers, the bank remains well-positioned to weather macro headwinds.
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb13.83/Target: Rmb16.70) 1H25: Satisfactory results; seeking growth by improving service capability and operating efficiency. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/HOLD/Rmb71.41/Target: Rmb75.30) 2Q25: Net profit down 32% yoy and 66% qoq; fair valuation. Downgrade to HOLD. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$14.47/Target: HK$17.00) 1H25: Revenue in line but net profit misses; generous dividend payout likely to b...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Public Bank Berhad and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 12 August 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context ...
Prime Beneficiary Of A Soft Landing Despite an uncertain macro backdrop from US tariffs, we upgrade the sector to OVERWEIGHT after its ytd underperformance. Resilient earnings, attractive dividends, and its position as a prime beneficiary of EM rotation from Fed easing are, in our view, key catalysts. The sector offers defensive shelter while retaining upside potential in the early phase of a cyclical recovery. We also take the opportunity to upgrade CIMB to a BUY and our sector recommendation t...
Loans Growth Tapers Amid Caution Loan growth softened to 5.1% in Jun 25 (May 25: +5.3%), driven by weaker business lending. Loan applications, particularly from businesses, also declined, likely reflecting a cautious stance amid tariff uncertainties. We maintain our 2025 loan growth forecast at 5-6%, implying a 1.4x loan-to-GDP multiplier, consistent with the historical 1.0x-1.7x range. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with a preference for defensive names like Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank.
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Rebound falters, weighed down by weaker construction and input cost pressures. Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales pressured by anti-involution initiatives. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.26/Target: HK$12.00) ...
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